Tom Bill
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Articles by Tom Bill
Mixed Signals : The UK residential market in five charts
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Tom Bill on tax-cut promises, mortgage pain & the country house market
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Political Divides Widen as Mortgage Rates Rise
UK political battle lines became more defined this week after the Conservative Party declared its intention to scrap the high-value council tax. Polls underline how difficult it will be for the Tories to win a majority at the next election, but a clear ideological divide is re-emerging in British politics. The Conservatives are making the case for lower taxes to boost the economy.
Knight Frank research boss : UK housing outlook hinges on Middle East tensions
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Tom Bill : Why January feels a long time ago for the UK housing market
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Super-prime lettings surge as tight supply squeezes London rental market
Lettings activity and rental value growth in prime London markets continue to be shaped disproportionately by supply. Overall, tight stock levels are pushing the number of tenancies agreed lower and rents higher. The number of new listings in prime central (PCL) and prime outer London was 10% lower than the five-year average in the three months to August, Rightmove data shows. In fact, new listings haven’t risen above their five-year average since April 2021.
Super-Prime Activity Resilient as Tight Supply Weighs on London Lettings Market
Lettings activity and rental value growth in prime London markets continue to be shaped disproportionately by supply. Overall, tight stock levels are pushing the number of tenancies agreed lower and rents higher. The number of new listings in prime central (PCL) and prime outer London was 10% lower than the five-year average in the three months to August, Rightmove data shows. In fact, new listings haven’t risen above their five-year average since April 2021.
Prime London Transactions Rise as Budget Headlines Recede
Media coverage of the bond market has moved from the business pages to the front pages in recent days, which is rarely a good sign. Government borrowing costs have risen across developed countries as investors become concerned about inflation risks and debt burdens against the backdrop of the Middle East conflict. The UK has been under added scrutiny due to its tight financial headroom.
Tom Bill : Mind the gap between tax policy and economic reality
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Expect a Smorgasbord of taxes on assets and wealth
Andy Burnham returned from his summer holiday last week and his honeymoon as Prime Minister also felt over. The ‘Burnham bounce’ has pushed Labour from the high teens to the mid-twenties in the opinion polls. However, internal conflict over the tough choices his government faces in the autumn Budget is a sign that reality is biting, a theme explored on the latest episode of Housing Unpacked.
Tom Bill : 'Burnham bounce' struggles to lift property market
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Prime London rents rise as landlords adjust to new legislation
The Renter’s Right Act is still proving largely counterproductive. The law, which came into effect in May, introduced a series of safeguards for tenants but rents have been pushed higher. One reason is a shortage of supply as more landlords have sold due to the prospect of tighter margins and increased red tape. The number of new rental listings in prime central and prime outer London was 14% below the five-year average in the first six months of this year, Rightmove data shows.
Prime London Market Activity Improves as Backdrop Stabilises
The prime London property market is having a better summer than it did in 2025, but that’s not a particularly high bar. The number of transactions was 14% higher across the capital in the three months to July, while the rise was 3% in prime central London (PCL), Knight Frank data shows. Activity was subdued last year after the introduction of Donald Trump’s trade tariffs, the ending of non dom status and speculation around property taxation in the autumn Budget.
Knight Frank's Tom Bill on Burnham’s first fortnight
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Rental market prepares for tax threat and reforms fall-out (opinion)
Rental values are continuing to climb as a result of the Renter’s Rights Act (RRA). The increase was 3.3% in the year to June in prime outer London, which is the highest figure recorded since June 2024, a time when rents were still coming down from pandemic-era highs. The RRA was introduced in May to tip the balance of power in favour of tenants. The full details can be found here, and the new rules cover the setting of rents, repossession, selling restrictions and pets.
Tom Bill : Prime market braces for another summer of speculation
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Tom Bill : Burnham victory sparks questions on fiscal discipline & property tax reform
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Renters Rights Act and unintended consequences – OPINION
At a time when the ideological direction of the government is under scrutiny, the Renters Rights Act (RRA) should serve as a cautionary tale for policymakers. Speculation is growing around the identity of the next Prime Minister and Chancellor as Keir Starmer’s leadership comes under pressure. HIs potential successors are currently mapping out their tax plans, but what is happening in the lettings market is a timely reminder of how economic policy can come with unintended consequences.
Tom Bill : UK politics take centre stage as global risks recede
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Andy Burnham Vs the bond market – why housing could feel the impact
Tom Bill The Chancellor would have been delighted to read last week’s headlines about a possible ‘oligarch premium’ for high-value council tax bands. At a time when cabinet ministers are vying to prove their soft-left credentials as Labour leadership speculation intensifies, it’s a policy that ticks all the right boxes.
Tom Bill : Property market under pressure as bond market clash looms
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Tom Bill : Mixed signals from housing market as political & monetary uncertainty drags
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Tom Bill on the Renters’ Rights Act: The end of the hobbyist landlord?
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Renters’ Rights Act: The End of the Hobbyist Landlord?
"I think this is kind of the point where landlords say, unless I'm going to do this either as a full-time role or certainly concentrate and focus time and effort on making sure that I can make this a viable business, then I'm actually going to move out of the sector" - Louisa Sedgwick - Paragon The Renter’s Rights Act could disadvantage vulnerable tenants, according to Louisa Sedgwick, head of mortgages at buy-to-let lender Paragon.
Knight Frank : Middle East conflict will impact UK housing market in four stages
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Ceasefire boosts sentiment but mortgage market lags
What goes up must come down, but for mortgage rates the drop will be notably more gradual than the sharp increase triggered by the Middle East conflict. Reasons include the long-term inflationary impact of the war and weaker demand for UK government debt, said Helen Thomas, CEO of political and economic consultancy Blonde Money, on the latest episode of Housing Unpacked.
Falling supply sparks rise in prime London rents
Three weeks before the introduction of the Renters’ Rights Act, falling supply is keeping upwards pressure on rents in prime London markets. The number of new rental listings in the first quarter of this year in prime central (PCL) and prime outer London (POL) was 8% lower than the same period in 2025, Rightmove data shows. Meanwhile, the number of new prospective tenants increased by 7% over the same period. Supply has fallen in recent years as it has become less attractive to be a landlord.
Tom Bill : Middle East ceasefire to boost buyer sentiment more than mortgage market
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Interest Rates: is Bank of England fighting the wrong war? – Opinion
As upwards pressure grows on borrowing costs, there are questions over whether the Bank of England’s hawkish posture is sustainable. Almost four weeks into the Middle East conflict, the Bank of England risks fighting its own inflation battle on the wrong front. As oil and natural gas prices have surged, financial markets have bet central banks will need to raise rates to control inflation.
Tom Bill : Mortgage costs rise as Bank of England risks fighting wrong inflation war
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Raising base rate – would it be Bank of England’s big mistake?
This opinion piece by Tom Bill, head of residential research at Knight Frank Super Thursday may need a rebrand after the events of last week. The name derived from the long list of central banks making rate decisions, which included Japan, the UK, Sweden, Switzerland and the ECB. Like the US Federal Reserve on Wednesday, they all held. The reason things felt more sub-optimal than super is the escalation of the Middle East conflict to include attacks on key energy infrastructure plants.
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Middle East conflict clouds rate outlook this week – Opinion
Spare a thought for anyone sitting on a mortgage pricing committee this week. The job of setting loan terms must be challenging when the number of rate cuts on the horizon moves around so dramatically in such a short space of time. The reason is the roller-coaster ride on energy markets since the end of February as the Middle East conflict has unfolded.
Middle East conflict clouds rate outlook for next week – Opinion
Spare a thought for anyone sitting on a mortgage pricing committee this week. The job of setting loan terms must be challenging when the number of rate cuts on the horizon moves around so dramatically in such a short space of time. The reason is the roller-coaster ride on energy markets since the end of February as the Middle East conflict has unfolded.
Tom Bill : Middle East conflict clouds rate outlook and Budget plans
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Are markets over-reacting as they take rate cut off the table?
This by Tom Bill, head of UK residential research at Knight Frank The conflict in the Middle East and accompanying spike in energy prices means financial markets expect fewer rate cuts from the Bank of England this year. That was the position on Thursday, although events have been unfolding quickly since the war started.
Tom Bill: How the Middle East conflict could affect the UK housing market
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How war hits London’s rental market - guest blog
London’s position on the global stage came into focus this week due to the volatility in the Middle East. Geopolitical uncertainty is one of many factors influencing demand in the prime London property market. While buyers and tenants are understandably sensitive to headline news, it is too early to tell how profoundly the latest events will affect their decision-making.
Spring Statement won’t affect investors - political instability will
We said a fortnight ago that a period of political instability may curb activity in the UK property market. Last week’s by-election result, where Labour came third behind Reform and the Green Party, makes the Prime Minister’s downfall look almost inevitable. The result was “seismic” according to Helen Thomas, chief executive of political and economic consultancy Blonde Money. “It was the worst outcome for Keir Starmer,” she said.
The main risk for the housing market now is political - Knight Frank
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Mortgage Costs to Fall as Market Prices in Faster Cuts
At the start of February, we called a spike in borrowing costs “reversible”, which it proved to be. Three days later, the Bank of England gave stronger-than-expected signals around a rate cut and inflation returning to its 2% target, which sent swap rates lower. Swap prices, which are based on future rate expectations, are used to price fixed-rate mortgages. Last Monday, we said poor jobs data and declining inflation could drive those expectations even lower.
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Supply Squeeze Curbs Activity in London Rental Market
January failed to live up to its early promise in the London lettings market. Demand was strong in the first fortnight of the year, but this was partly driven by tenants activating plans delayed by the Budget, which meant the early momentum faded. It was a similar story in the sales market, as we explore here. As a result, the number of new prospective tenants registering last month was 4% below the five-year average. Meanwhile, the number of tenancies started fell by 12%.
Tom Bill: Rate cut expectations fade amid mixed economic signals
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UK haven status under pressure as geopolitical risks rise - Knight Frank
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UK Haven Status Under Pressure as Geopolitical Risks Rise
The Chancellor offered encouraging words in the Swiss town of Davos last week about the importance of attracting overseas capital to the UK. “Britain is a haven of stability in an uncertain world as this government makes the UK the premier destination for global investment,” Rachel Reeves told the World Economic Forum. Based on recent events in Venezuela, Greenland, Iran and Japan, the first part of her statement certainly rang true.
Prime lettings momentum builds, but year hinges on policy success
A sense of certainty following November’s Budget drove demand in the prime London lettings market at the end of last year. It followed months of speculation surrounding which taxes may rise as Chancellor Rachel Reeves attempted to rebuild her financial headroom. There was a similar late bounce in the sales market in 2025. The number of new prospective tenants registering in London in December was 12% higher than the same month in 2024, Knight Frank data shows. The number of viewings increased by 5%.
Council tax revaluation plan risks unsettling property market - Knight Frank
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Council Tax Revaluation Plan Risks Unsettling Property Market
Dinner party conversations about house prices could become a lot more heated if the latest pre-Budget speculation is to be believed. Reports last week suggested that properties in council tax bands F, G, and H will be revalued, with the most expensive homes paying a surcharge, presumably to central rather than local government. There is ambiguity around price thresholds and the precise method, but it appears some form of ‘mansion tax’ will be announced on Wednesday.
Go! Go! Go! Some buyers try to beat Budget uncertainty
Three months of Budget rumours have stalled activity in parts of the UK economy. But at the top of the property market, some have accelerated their plans before possible new measures take effect. By the time the Budget takes place on 26 November, three months will have passed since the first ‘mansion tax’ headlines appeared this summer. For more than a quarter of the year, some sections of the property market have effectively been operating in the dark, reflected in last week’s RICS survey.
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