Will Todman
Chief of Staff @CSISGeopolitics, senior fellow @CSISMidEast, and host of State of Play. Conflict, governance, and displacement in the MENA region. Views my own.
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Articles by Will Todman
The Price of Exclusion
Over the past 15 years, international donors have provided tens of billions of dollars in aid to Syrian refugees and host communities in the Middle East. However, they have failed to create meaningful pathways to autonomy, with host governments refusing to grant refugees full economic inclusion. This installment of Charting the Middle East spotlights how Western aid cuts have rendered the current international response to Syrian refugees obsolete.
The Self-Reliance Dividend: The Imperative of Syrian Refugees’ Economic Inclusion
Watch the related video: The Need for a New Refugee Response in the Middle East. The international response to the Syrian refugee crisis in the Middle East stands at an inflection point. Over the last 15 years, international donors spent tens of billions of dollars on aid, but failed to create durable solutions to refugees’ displacement.
Everyone Lost the War With Iran
Argument An expert’s point of view on a current event. Mourners in the city of Qom attend the funeral of those killed in the US-Israeli war with Iran on March 5. Mourners in the city of Qom attend the funeral of those killed in the US-Israeli war with Iran on March 5. MEHDI ALAVI / ISNA / AFP via Getty Images Foreign & Public Diplomacy Iran With the announcement of a framework deal to end the war in Iran, the conventional wisdom taking hold is that the United States and Israel lost.
The United States and Iran Announce a Deal to End the War | State of Play
Tune in here at 12:30 pm ET to hear CSIS experts react to the ongoing news of a ceasefire deal. What’s the latest? The United States and Iran have announced their agreement on a framework that includes a 60-day ceasefire and reopens the Strait of Hormuz. The MOU—slated to be signed on June 19 in Geneva—paves the way for negotiations on Iran’s nuclear ambitions, a central driver of the war.
How Arab Gulf States View the Emerging Iran Deal
As details of an anticipated memorandum of understanding (MOU) between the United States and Iran emerge, Arab Gulf states are likely to meet the deal with a mix of relief and trepidation. If signed, the MOU and accompanying 60-day ceasefire will begin to sharpen the focus of the contours of an emerging order in the Middle East. In this next phase, Gulf actors will accelerate efforts to protect their equities and ensure that any deal with Iran is sustainable for them.
The United States Withdraws from Syria | State of Play
Why Does It Matter? The U.S. withdrawal from Syria is a testament to the success of the integration agreement between the Kurdish-led groups and the Syrian government. Since the January 30, 2026, agreement, no mass atrocities against minorities have been recorded in northeastern Syria.
The Houthi Threat: Is Trump Underestimating One of Iran’s Key Remaining Cards?
On April 1, President Trump announced that the United States’ strategic objectives in the war with Iran were “nearing completion.” He threatened to send Iran “back to the stone ages” if it did not make a deal within three weeks, and said “we have all the cards, they have none.” Yet, Iran does have other cards to play. A few days before President Trump’s address, the Houthis entered the fray in the Middle East.
The War with Iran Threatens Syria’s Recovery
Hours after U.S. and Israeli jets began bombing Iran on February 28, 2026, Syrians heard a loud explosion in Damascus. Given the new Syrian government’s hostility to Iran, the lingering presence of U.S. forces in Syria, and Iran’s attacks on key infrastructure across several Arab states, many feared Syria had become a target. But the explosion heard in Damascus was not the start of a new front. It was the sound of an Iranian missile headed for Israel being intercepted.
How Syria Can Succeed in Integrating the Kurds
Intensified conflict between the Syrian transition government (STG) and the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) poses the most significant threat to Syria’s fragile transition to date. The SDF overplayed its hand in negotiations with the STG, but now President Ahmed al-Sharaa risks similar overreach. A shaky four-day ceasefire is set to expire on January 24.
Syria’s Promise and Challenges One Year After Assad’s Fall
The Issue One year after the collapse of the Assad regime, the fate of Syria’s transition lies between the promise spurred by the Syrian people’s resilience and the enormous challenges posed by years of devastating conflict and decades of authoritarianism. The window for a successful transition is not open-ended.
Satellite imagery shows Tehran’s accelerating water crisis
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Satellite Imagery Shows Tehran’s Accelerating Water Crisis
Introduction Tehran is experiencing an unprecedented water crisis. Satellite imagery analysis shows that key reservoirs that feed the capital are far below their typical seasonal variation. The Iranian president has warned that Iran has “no choice” but to move the location of the capital due to the water crisis. In the short term, water rationing has been imposed on some neighborhoods, and authorities may have to evacuate residents from Tehran.
The UK's National Security Strategy in the Middle East
The Middle East and UK security The UK’s National Security Strategy (NSS) states that the Middle East is a secondary priority area for the United Kingdom, after the Euro-Atlantic theater. Yet, the UK faces serious threats from the Middle East: First, the Israel-Gaza war and its spillover effects continue to threaten UK interests. Israel has conducted strikes on at least six countries across the region, which have shifted the regional balance of power.
What Comes Next for Israel-Hamas Ceasefire?
On October 8, President Donald Trump announced that Israel and Hamas had agreed to the first phase of his peace deal for Gaza. He had unveiled a 20-point plan to end the war in Gaza after meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in the White House on September 29.
Israel Strikes Hamas in Qatar
On September 9, the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) announced that the Israeli Air Force conducted an assassination attempt against Hamas leaders in Doha. Hamas negotiators had reportedly gathered to discuss their response to the Trump administration’s latest ceasefire proposal for Gaza. In a statement, Hamas officials said that its leadership team survived. The attack follows a string of Israeli strikes on Middle Eastern capitals in recent months, including Tehran, Beirut, Damascus, and Sana’a.
Experts React: Starvation in Gaza
Editor’s Note: Additional expert perspectives were added on July 29, 2025. How Did Gaza Descend into Mass Starvation and What Is the Path Out? Mona Yacoubian, Director and Senior Adviser, Middle East Program Gaza’s accelerated descent into mass starvation dates to Israel’s decision to impose a full blockade on the territory on March 2. The move was intended to pressure Hamas to release additional hostages.
Violence Escalates as Israel Intervenes in Southern Syria
After days of escalating sectarian violence in southern Syria, Israel struck various Syrian government targets on July 16, 2025, including the ministry of defense and an area close to the presidential palace in Damascus. The strikes followed an escalating tit-for-tat between Druze militias, Bedouin tribes, and Syrian government forces, which has reportedly left at least 300 people dead, including civilians.
Lebanon Finally Elects a President
Lebanon’s parliament elected General Joseph Aoun as president on January 9, 2025, ending a two-year stalemate. Parliament had failed to elect a president 12 times following the end of the previous president’s term in October 2022. Aoun has served as the commander of the Lebanese army since March 2017. Q1: Why did this happen now? A1: Aoun’s election is a manifestation of Hezbollah’s weakness.
Don’t Rush Syrian Refugees’ Return
Just one day after Bashar al-Assad’s ouster, Austria announced plans to deport Syrians back to Syria. A dozen European countries also announced that they had stopped processing Syrians’ asylum claims. This is a huge mistake. Many European states have wanted to send Syrians back to their home country for a long time. Before Assad’s fall, several states had hardened their stance on refugee returns, pushing for Syrians to return even without political reforms.
Mobilizing for Stability
Environmental crises are destroying lives and roiling economies in the Middle East and North Africa. Yet, most MENA governments lack comprehensive strategies to address these challenges, and the region consistently receives less international climate finance than any other region in the world. In a new report, Will Todman argues that international actors should view environmental civil society as a strategic partner in their efforts to stabilize the MENA region.
Lebanon’s Dangerous Campaign against Refugees
Lebanon hosts 1.5 million Syrian refugees. It wants to get rid of most of them. Lebanese sovereignty is important, but so are the country’s humanitarian obligations and Lebanon’s role in regional security. A recent government scheme to deport Syrians in Lebanon who were not registered as refugees with the United Nations—nearly half of the 1.5 million refugees in Lebanon—may be a first step, and it is a potentially dangerous one.
The UK’s engagement with the Middle East and North Africa
The State of Governance and Rule of Law in Uganda
The Global Economic Consequences of the Attacks on Red Sea Shipping Lanes
Introduction Maritime shipping, the backbone of international commerce, is under stress resulting from several crises in different chokepoints across the globe. Chief among them is instability caused by the Houthi attacks on ships in the Gulf of Aden and the Red Sea, an obligatory route for vessels transiting the Suez Canal.
Entrepreneurs Can Help the Middle East Adapt to Climate Change
The 2023 UN Climate Change Conference (COP28) ended without a firm commitment to end fossil fuel reliance. Instead, global leaders reached an agreement on the terms under which an “orderly” transition away from fossil fuels will take place. While they debated, a community of climate tech entrepreneurs and investors also gathered to advance their own solutions.
Gaza's Solar Power in Wartime
In the aftermath of Hamas’s October 7 attack, the Israeli energy minister vowed “no electric switch will be turned on, no water tap will be opened, and no fuel truck will enter [Gaza] until the Israeli abductees are home.” Gaza is heavily reliant on Israel for the delivery of both electricity and diesel expressly for electricity generation, and it is experiencing widespread power outages as a result of Israel’s blockade.
Middle East Transformation Initiative
The Middle East is on the cusp of a transformation. The region’s economies, environment, politics, and international relations are all shifting simultaneously. While the looming energy transition is the most obvious driver, a climate transition is also underway. These two combine with other factors to create an impending labor transition, and the three will mix with demographics and global communications technologies to create profound social transitions.
In Brief: The Mediterranean Migrant Crisis
A lot happens every day. Alliances shift, leaders change, and conflicts erupt. With In Brief, we’ll help you make sense of it all. Each week, experts will dig deep into a single issue happening in the world to help you better understand it. *** This year has seen the highest number of irregular border crossings into the European Union since 2016, with the migratory route across the central Mediterranean sea the most traveled in the world, according to monitoring group Frontex.
The Unique Promise of Environmental Cooperation in the Gulf
Climate change is placing additional pressure on the region. The Middle East is warming twice as quickly as the global average, which exacerbates water scarcity and the risk of dust storms.
Environmental Civil Society in the Middle East
In 2015, rotting garbage sparked an unprecedented political movement in Lebanon. When the Naamah landfill closed and refuse piled up on the streets of Beirut, Lebanese citizens took to the streets to demand change. Protestors united across sectarian and political divides, ascribing the government’s mismanagement of waste collection with the endemic corruption of the political class.
Support for Refugees Erodes in the Middle East
International actors should also develop more innovative strategies. Absent political will to resettle large numbers of refugees from the Middle East to Western states, donors can still help facilitate resettlement to other countries. Some African states welcomed Afghan refugees in the final days of the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan, motivated by a sense of moral responsibility, echoes of historical national traumas, and geopolitical opportunism.
How Renewables Fight Corruption in Conflict-Affected States
This commentary was originally published in Devexon May 10, 2023. Iman Hadi is a persuasive woman who changed Faleha Mohammad’s life. In 2019, Iman was a 36-year-old who was displaced by the fighting in Yemen and settled in Abs, a town midway between Sanaa and the Saudi Arabia border. Faleha was living with her parents in a small hut, living off a brother’s meager wages selling water.
Opinion: How renewables fight corruption in conflict-affected states
Iman Hadi is a persuasive woman who changed Faleha Mohammad’s life. In 2019, Iman was a 36-year-old who was displaced by the fighting in Yemen and settled in Abs, a town midway between Sanaa and the Saudi Arabia border. Faleha was living with her parents in a small hut, living off a brother’s meager wages selling water. The only source of electricity was from a private generator owner who had a local monopoly and charged extortionate prices.
Bolstering Climate Entrepreneurship in the MENA Region
Oman has some of the world’s best diving sites, with sea turtles, rare corals, and 22 species of whales and dolphins. But just five nautical miles out to sea, the waters are totally devoid of life. Warming oceans and pollution have deprived the sea of oxygen, creating the world’s largest dead zone. Karan Khimji grew up in Oman and witnessed the impact of environmental damage firsthand. He left his job in Europe and returned to Oman to contribute to efforts to find a healthier balance with nature.
Libya’s Civil Society Crackdown Exacerbates Its Climate Woes
The Ministry of Interior in eastern Libya recently published a video of heavily armed security officials raiding a compound in Benghazi in response to “reports of suspicious activity.” Having scaled the walls, they successfully apprehended their targets—two sisters running a shelter for stray dogs. Despite a local outcry, the animal rights activists were accused of carrying out acts against the teachings of Islam, detained, and denied access to lawyers.
Powering Recovery: Reform, Reconstruction, and Renewables in Conflict-Affected States in the Arab World
An Arabic translation of this report is forthcoming. The United States and other international donors have committed tens of billions of dollars to reconstruction and peacebuilding in conflict-affected environments in the Middle East, but there is frustratingly little to show for the effort in many states. After conflict stopped, those in power during wartime transitioned to privileged positions in peacetime, entrenching themselves and their interests in the new status quo.
LGBTQ+ Advocacy in the Middle East Backfires
December 16, 2022 Peter Tatchell’s protest made headlines around the world. The British human rights defender traveled to Doha before the start of the World Cup to stage what he dubbed the “first-ever public LGBTQ+ protest” in the Gulf. While he won approval from Western audiences for its bravery, local activists expressed shock and dismay.
Russia waged a cheap war in Syria. Here’s what those tactics might look like in Ukraine
A car burns at the side of the damaged by shelling maternity hospital in Mariupol, Ukraine, on March 9. (Evgeniy Maloletka/AP) Russian troops are increasingly bogged down in Ukraine — and global sanctions have hit the Russian economy hard. As the economic costs of invading Ukraine rise, will the Kremlin look at cost-saving warfare strategies it used in Syria? The bombing of suggest Russia may be doing this already.
Russia Waged a Cheap War in Syria. Here’s What Those Tactics Might Look Like in Ukraine
Russia Waged a Cheap War in Syria. Here’s What Those Tactics Might Look Like in Ukraine This post originally appeared as "Russia waged a cheap war in Syria. Here’s what those tactics might look like in Ukraine"in The Monkey Cage at The Washington Post on March 11, 2022. Reprinted here with permission. Russian troops are increasingly bogged down in Ukraine—and global sanctions have hit the Russian economy hard.
Hedging, Hunger, and Hostilities: The Middle East after Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine
February 25, 2022 The effects of Russia’s February 24, 2022, invasion of Ukraine will ripple throughout the Middle East and North Africa. It will reveal new geostrategic alignments, compound food insecurity, and threaten to spark new military confrontations. If the confrontation between Russia and much of the rest of the world is prolonged, as seems likely, the more serious impacts may be in the longer term rather than the shorter term.
Hydrogel: A Promising Solution for Water Scarcity in the Middle East?
November 9, 2021 In Jordan’s capital, water only flows through the piped network once every week or two. Most residents of Amman store water in rooftop tanks and then carefully ration it until the next refill on “water day.” The situation is even worse outside cities, where agricultural communities are losing an uphill battle with climate change.
A Conversation with HRH Prince El Hassan bin Talal of Jordan
Building Security Through Sustainable Development Tuesday, September 14, 2021 9:30 am - 10:30 am Register Via Zoom Ask Live Questions Here This event will be a Webinar and has a limited number of available spots for live participants. Please register for this event through the registration button, and you will receive an email with the details to watch the event live. The recording of this event will be posted on this event page within 48 hours of its conclusion.
A Conversation with HRH Prince Hassan bin Talal of Jordan
Building Security Through Sustainable Development Tuesday, September 14, 2021 9:30 am - 10:30 am Register Via Zoom Ask Live Questions Here This event will be a Webinar and has a limited number of available spots for live participants. Please register for this event through the registration button, and you will receive an email with the details to watch the event live. The recording of this event will be posted on this event page within 48 hours of its conclusion.
Lebanon’s New Government
September 10, 2021 After 13 months of political stalemate in Lebanon, Najib Mikati announced the formation of a government at the presidential palace on Friday, September 10, 2021. Mikati will lead a government of 24 ministers, which has won the backing of President Michel Aoun and Speaker of Parliament Nabih Berri. Q1: Why did a government form after more than a year? A1: Lebanon’s crises overwhelmed politicians’ reluctance to compromise.
Tunisia - What Now?
Register Via Zoom Ask Live Questions Here This event will be a Webinar and has a limited number of available spots for live participants. Please register for this event through the registration button, and you will receive an email with the details to watch the event live. The recording of this event will be posted on this event page within 48 hours of its conclusion. Tunisia, the lone democracy remaining from the Arab Spring, is at a crossroads.
A Coup in Tunisia?
July 27, 2021 On Sunday July 25, Tunisian president Kais Saied invoked emergency powers, fired the prime minister, and suspended parliament for 30 days. Saied declared that he would govern alongside a new prime minister.
The Global Energy Transition
This week on Babel, Jon talks with Daniel Yergin, the vice-chairman of IHS Markit and author of the new book, The New Map: Energy, Climate, and the Clash of Nations. They discuss the global energy transition and the longevity of oil, the effects of the shale revolution on U.S. foreign policy, and how states such as China will think about energy security moving forward.
Novedades en la RED, Nº 825: Protestas en Cuba
Documentos The UN vote on aid in Syria Se analiza la resolución 2585 del Consejo de Seguridad que prorroga el mecanismo de la organización para la ayuda humanitaria transfronteriza desde Turquía al norte de Siria, una resolución que introduce una nueva terminología y que puede tener implicaciones en el conflicto sirio.
The UN Vote on Aid in Syria
July 12, 2021 On July 9, 2021, the UN Security Council unanimously passed Resolution 2585, allowing UN agencies to continue to coordinate and deliver aid cross-border from Turkey to northwestern Syria without Syrian government consent. Russia had threatened to veto a renewal of the cross-border mandate, but it agreed to a compromise the day before the mandate was set to expire on July 10. Q1: What does this vote mean?
The Future of Humanitarian Operations: Aid and Politics in Syria
Wednesday, July 7, 2021 9:30 am - 10:30 am Email This field is required. The email to associate with this registration. First name This field is required. Last name This field is required. Leave this field blank Ask Live Questions Here The event will be webcast live from this page. Please register using the button above. International assistance to Syria has gone on far longer than most anticipated.
Why Sustainable Public Utilities Are a Security Issue
with Gen. Kenneth F. McKenzie Wednesday, June 23, 2021 1:30 pm - 3:00 pm Email This field is required. The email to associate with this registration. First name This field is required. Last name This field is required. Leave this field blank Ask Live Questions Here The event will be webcast live from this page. Sustainable public utilities and effective governance are vital to security in the Middle East.
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