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Articles by James S. Risbey
Using initial states to identify successful El Niño–Southern Oscillation forecasts 1 year in advance
Reference #1 Abstract Supplementary Materials REFERENCES eLetters (0) Information & Authors Metrics & Citations View Options References Figures Tables Media Share This article has 0 eLetter . Abstract El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the primary source of climate predictability on seasonal and longer timescales over much of the globe, but predicting its phase beyond 9 months has remained challenging.
Climate impacts of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation on Australia - Nature Reviews Earth & Environment
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Abstract El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) profoundly affects Australian weather, climate, ecosystems and socio-economic sectors. In this Review, we summarize the advances in understanding the ENSO–Australian climate relationship, detailing the complexity beyond the traditional assumptions of El Niño-dry and La Niña-wet patterns, including mechanisms and impacts.
By Andréa S. Taschetto, Shayne McGregor, Peter van Rensch, Nerilie Abram, Kathryn Allen, Linden Ashcroft, Josephine Brown, Wenju Cai, Savin S. Chand, Catherine de Burgh-Day, Neil Holbrook, Hanna Heidemann, Andrew King, Roseanna McKay, Sarah Perkins-Kirkpatrick, Scott B. Power, James S. Risbey, Caroline C. Ummenhofer, Guojian Wang, Ruby Lieber
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Nature
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A Soft Record Analysis of Extreme Heat Across Australia
1 Introduction Extreme weather frequently impacts the Australian continent. Natural hazard-induced disasters are estimated to cost the country billions of dollars annually (Handmer et al. 2018), and the true cost would be much higher if environmental losses and other non-monetary values (e.g., cultural, social and emotional) were accounted for (Sangha et al. 2021).
Is Australia’s climate confusing you? Here’s why rainfall and temperatures don’t always behave as expected
In the past few years in Australia, seasonal rainfall and temperatures have left a lot of people confused. Sometimes, the hot, dry conditions usually associated with an El Niño have not eventuated. Similarly, there have been years where a La Niña did not lead to the cool, wet conditions expected.
A multi‐model likelihood analysis of unprecedented extreme rainfall along the east coast of Australia
1 INTRODUCTION Extreme rainfall and significant flooding affected the east coast of Australia from 22 February to 9 March 2022. The heavy rains began in south-east Queensland and north-east New South Wales during the last week of February and continued further south into eastern New South Wales in early March.
An Open Letter to President Kornbluth
Dear President Kornbluth, Thank you for your letter to the MIT-wide alumni community explaining your decision to remove the encampment on Kresge Lawn [1]. You did not name the encampment group, but it is Scientists Against Genocide Encampment @MIT (SAGE@MIT).
Is climate change outpacing our ability to predict extreme heatwaves? Original
When an extreme weather event happens somewhere in the world these days, it’s common to read quotes from climate scientists explaining this is exactly the kind of event we expect to see more often as climate change progresses. Such events are often devastating, but not surprising if you’ve been paying attention to the climate projections issued by scientists for many decades now.
A large-scale view of marine heatwaves revealed by archetype analysis - Nature Communications
Abstract Marine heatwaves can have disastrous impacts on ecosystems and marine industries. Given their potential consequences, it is important to understand how broad-scale climate variability influences the probability of localised extreme events. Here, we employ an advanced data-mining methodology, archetype analysis, to identify large scale patterns and teleconnections that lead to marine extremes in certain regions.
Impacts of ENSO on Australian rainfall: what not to expect
RESEARCH ARTICLE (Open Access) Carly R. Tozer A * , James S. Risbey A , Didier P. Monselesan A , Mike J. Pook A , Damien Irving A , Nandini Ramesh B , Jyoteeshkumar Reddy A and Dougal T. Squire A + Author Affiliations - Author Affiliations A CSIRO, Environment, Hobart, Tas., Australia. B CSIRO, Data61, Sydney, NSW, Australia.
Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences
1. Introduction One of the fundamental measures of the Earth’s climate is the global mean surface temperature (GMST). This is important as an attribute of the state of the climate and because many feedbacks in the climate system depend on temperature [1]. It has also been relatively well observed and estimated for more than a century [2,3]. The surface temperature is also one of the variables of most relevance to surface dwelling species.
Well-estimated global surface warming in climate projections selected for ENSO phase
Abstract The question of how climate model projections have tracked the actual evolution of global mean surface air temperature is important in establishing the credibility of their projections. Some studies and the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report suggest that the recent 15-year period (1998–2012) provides evidence that models are overestimating current temperature evolution.
An annotated bibliography on the greenhouse effect and climate change
Climatic Change June 1992, Volume 21, Issue 2, pp 97–255 | Cite as Abstract The literature on climate change from an enhanced greenhouse effect is large and growing rapidly. The problems considered are increasingly inter-disciplinary. For these reasons many workers will find useful pointers to the literature in the fields interacting with, but outside of, their own. We present here an annotated bibliography on issues relating to changes in the concentrations of Earth's greenhouse gases.
On the definition and identifiability of the alleged “hiatus” in global warming
We catalogued a corpus of peer-reviewed articles published between 2009 and 2014 that specifically addressed the presumed “hiatus” in global warming. Table 1 shows that the term “hiatus” was used more than 550 times in this corpus, and the word “pause” in excess of 70 times. Many articles assumed that the “hiatus” commenced around 1998, at which time temperature anomalies were considerably above the long-term trend.
Betting strategies on fluctuations in the transient response of greenhouse warming
AbstractWe examine a series of betting strategies on the transient response of greenhouse warming, expressed by changes in 15-year mean global surface temperature from one 15-year period to the next. Over the last century, these bets are increasingly dominated by positive changes (warming), reflecting increasing greenhouse forcing and its rising contribution to temperature changes on this time scale.
The “Pause” in Global Warming: Turning a Routine Fluctuation into a Problem for Science
There has been much recent published research about a putative “pause” or “hiatus” in global warming. We show that there are frequent fluctuations in the rate of warming around a longer-term warming trend, and that there is no evidence that identifies the recent period as unique or particularly unusual. In confirmation, we show that the notion of a “pause” in warming is considered to be misleading in a blind expert test.
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