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Mandy Freund

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Articles

It’s possible to predict some El Niños a year in advance. Here’s why that matters

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By Nandini Ramesh, Mandy Freund
| The Conversation Verified
A remarkably strong El Niño has formed in the Pacific. This natural phenomenon drives variations in temperature, rainfall and winds across the globe. The ongoing El Niño has already contributed to sudden floods in eastern Africa, blistering heatwaves in Europe and intense hurricanes in the eastern Pacific. Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology warned us of this El Niño in June, which is currently the earliest point at which reliable predictions can be made.
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Using initial states to identify successful El Niño–Southern Oscillation forecasts 1 year in advance

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By Yihan Wu, Yiming Qi, Agustín E. Morellato, Nandini Ramesh, Mandy Freund, Damien Irving, Dougal T Squire, Carly R Tozer, Didier P. Monselesan, Tess Parker, Annette Stellema, James S. Risbey
| Science Magazine Verified
Reference #1 Abstract Supplementary Materials REFERENCES eLetters (0) Information & Authors Metrics & Citations View Options References Figures Tables Media Share This article has 0 eLetter . Abstract El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the primary source of climate predictability on seasonal and longer timescales over much of the globe, but predicting its phase beyond 9 months has remained challenging.
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減排越遲代價越大 研究指一氣候風險恐持續數百年

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By Aditya Sengupta, Andrew King, Josephine Brown, Mandy Freund, Nicola Maher
| SBS Verified
全球正面臨可能歷來最強烈的厄爾尼諾現象。這種以太平洋為核心的氣候模式，可能改變全球各地的天氣。 厄爾尼諾並非新現象，但即將出現的一次，可能是有紀錄以來最強烈。研究顯示，隨著人類排放溫室氣體導致地球持續暖化，如今年的極端厄爾尼諾現象，將會越來越常見。 最新研究探討厄爾尼諾為何出現變化，以及當全球達到淨零排放目標後，這種氣候模式如何演變。研究結果顯示，如果世界繼續依賴化石燃料，極端厄爾尼諾事件將更頻繁；但若能提早達致淨零排放，將有助限制出現次數。 長期以來，厄爾尼諾透過影響太平洋以外地區的氣溫及降雨，左右全球天氣。 1982 年，強烈厄爾尼諾現象為南美洲帶來暴雨，秘魯部份河流流量較平常高出一千倍。太平洋中部基里巴斯 (Kiribati) 聖誕島 (Kiritimati Island)，暴雨淹沒海鳥巢穴，令整個鳥群消失。同一時間，澳洲東南部嚴重乾旱，最終引發山火，造成 75 人死亡。 1998 年，厄爾尼諾為秘魯塞丘拉沙漠 (Sechura Desert) 帶來足以形成三米深湖泊的雨量，引發蚊患及瘧疾大規模傳播。印尼持續數個月的乾旱，引發大規模山林大火。 2016...
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