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Articles by Mary Radcliffe
FiftyPlusOne to power MS NOW’s midterm election coverage
We have some big news to share! FiftyPlusOne is teaming up with MS NOW to power the media giant’s polling and election coverage in the final weeks of this year’s midterm elections. Starting today, October 8th, our polling averages, forecasts, and interactive tools will be included in MS NOW’s election coverage, both on air and online, through the midterms and beyond.
The Next Swing State, Debated Over Drinks
The full episode is available to paid subscribers. Once you become a paid subscriber, you can connect your account to your preferred podcast player here. What’s the next swing state: Texas, Kansas or Minnesota? And how much should we trust the polls pointing toward a big blue wave this November? Mary Radcliffe and Nathaniel Rakich joined me for our first GD POLITICS paid-subscriber happy hour to debate the changing electoral map and answer your questions about the midterms.
Flock cameras are even less popular than Trump
Welcome to The Trendline, the FiftyPlusOne.news weekly polling roundup. Subscribe to get it delivered straight to your inbox and get bundled access to our polling website. Flock cameras seem to be everywhere these days, both in the news and around the country. Communities all over America are debating whether to continue use of the automated license plate readers, with some terminating their contracts and others standing firm on their use of the cameras.
No, the polling industry is not on the verge of collapse
The New York Times is, once again, worried about the polls. In a piece last week, Reid Epstein brought up a number of concerns facing the polling industry, full of hand-wringing about whether or not the polls are blowing it this cycle.
Rural and suburban voters haven’t looked this Democratic since 2018
Welcome to The Trendline, the FiftyPlusOne.news weekly polling roundup. Subscribe to get it delivered straight to your inbox and get bundled access to our polling website. For decades, Republicans have built their congressional strength on support from rural voters, racking up huge margins in some of the most sparsely populated areas of the country.
A troubling trend of fake polls and lying pollsters, with FiftyPlusOne’s Mary Radcliffe
On this week’s Strength In Numbers podcast, Elliott is joined by Mary Radcliffe, head of research at FiftyPlusOne, to dig into a truly wild week in polling. This week truly had it all: one “pollster” that turned out to be entirely fictional, a real pollster that admitted to reassigning respondents’ vote choices, and two firms that our investigation found were doing polls for campaigns but passing them off as non-partisan, public surveys.
We’re suspending two pollsters from FiftyPlusOne for ethics violations
FiftyPlusOne is not the polls police. However, we do, from time to time, make the tough decision to exclude a pollster from our data collection, aggregation, and forecasting when we lose faith in the process a firm uses to gather and generate its polling results.
Affordability concerns are even more important to voters than in 2024
Welcome to The Trendline, the FiftyPlusOne.news weekly polling roundup. Subscribe to get it delivered straight to your inbox and get bundled access to our polling website. In May, the average price of gas nationwide hit $4.48. That coincided with the highest inflation rate in three years, driven primarily by a protracted war with Iran that has disrupted supply-chain routes and sent prices soaring.
How popular are marquee DSA policies?
Welcome to The Trendline, the FiftyPlusOne.news weekly polling roundup. Subscribe to get it delivered straight to your inbox and get bundled access to our polling website. There’s been a lot of talk in recent weeks about the Democratic Socialists of America, as DSA candidates across the country have been running (and winning) in primary races in deep blue districts and cities.
House members keep losing their bids for higher office
50+1 publishes fresh political analysis up to twice a week. Sign up to get us in your inbox. We’re about halfway through the primary calendar for 2026 (27 states have held their primaries thus far), and a curious pattern has emerged. Twenty-nine sitting members of the House of Representatives are running for other offices — a historically high number — but of the 18 that have already faced election, just five of them have won nomination. Republican Reps.
Democrats have nearly closed their party favorability gap
Welcome to The Trendline, FiftyPlusOne’s weekly polling roundup. Subscribe to get it delivered straight to your inbox and get bundled access to our polling website. This week, we rolled out new averages at FiftyPlusOne of favorability polling for the Democratic and Republican parties, calculated back to January 2025.
“Soft” measures of Trump’s popularity are eroding among Republicans
Welcome to The Trendline, FiftyPlusOne’s weekly polling roundup. Subscribe to get it delivered straight to your inbox and get bundled access to our polling website. In the polling analysis industry, we rightfully spend a lot of time focused on the president’s approval rating as a proxy for general voter sentiment. And there’s good reasons for that: there’s a strong correlation between, for example, presidential approval and midterm elections (among other things).
Voters support voter ID requirements, but not other voting restrictions Trump has proposed
Welcome to The Trendline, FiftyPlusOne’s weekly polling roundup. Subscribe to get it delivered straight to your inbox and get bundled access to our polling website. In the State of the Union address on Tuesday, President Donald Trump made exactly one reference to polls.
Do we really know who's leading the Texas Senate races?
This analysis is free for all readers. Paid subscribers to 50+1 get full access to our interactive polling tables, detailed methodological breakdowns, and premium analysis of major races. The first competitive primaries of the 2026 election cycle happen in under a week, on March 3rd.
State Navigate Poll Shows Spanberger with 13-Point Lead in Virginia Governor Race
“The rumors of my death are greatly exaggerated.” – Ticket-Splitting Voters, apparently Abigail Spanberger has reached a new zenith in the race for Virginia Governor. A new State Navigate poll conducted between October 17th and October 20th shows Spanberger with a 13-point lead to become the next Governor of Virginia, her widest lead yet in any public poll. In State Navigate’s survey of 694 likely voters, Spanberger has 55% of the vote to Republican Winsome Sears’s 42%.
The Democratic image is underwater — but they're not losing
Note number one: Elliott wrote this article. Strength In Numbers contributor and former FiveThirtyEight colleague Mary Radcliffe gathered most of the data and created the polling average visual. Note number two: This is a newsworthy enough subject that I felt I should push the July Q&A, originally slated for today, later in the week. Look for that in your inboxes tomorrow!
Renters slow their roll
Over a third of U.S. renters have lived in the same home for at least five years—up from 28.4 percent a decade ago according to a new report from Redfin. Economic fundamentals are likely a strong contributor to the ebb in move outs. In June 2022, consumer sentiment was at the lowest level recorded since 1966. The record-breaking University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index came in even lower than that during the Great Recession of 2008.
What do Americans think of Trump's executive actions?
They support Trump’s immigration policies, but not much else. ByMary Radcliffe, Nathaniel Rakich, Tia Yang, and Cooper Burton January 22, 2025, 1:39 PM In just the first couple days of his second term, President Donald Trump has already taken an extraordinary amount of executive action. On Monday alone, he issued 26 executive orders, 12 legally binding memoranda and four presidential proclamations.
Why Democrats now support the Hunter Biden pardon Original
Plus, polls on Sarah McBride's favorability and the future of America. ByNathaniel Rakich, Mary Radcliffe, and Tia Yang December 5, 2024, 4:02 PM Welcome to Pollapalooza, our occasional polling column.
The 2024 election could hinge on Pennsylvania | What you need to know
The entire nation will vote on the next president of the United States on November 5, but the election will likely come down to seven key swing states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
The 2024 election could hinge on Pennsylvania
Our final deep dive into polling and other data in the seven key swing states. ByGeoffrey Skelley and Mary Radcliffe Video byJulian Kim and Geoffrey Skelley October 29, 2024, 4:13 PM The entire nation will vote on the next president of the United States this fall, but the election will likely come down to seven key swing states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
2024 has fewer polls, but they are higher quality
How this year's polling compares with other recent elections. ByMary Radcliffe, Cooper Burton, and Amina Brown October 28, 2024, 4:58 PM As Election Day approaches, many of you may find yourselves obsessively checking the polls, poring over every minute change in our forecasts and averages to try to glean any new insights you can about the state of the race. We get it — looking at the polls is kind of our thing here at 538.
How Georgia could swing back to the GOP in 2024
Our fourth deep dive into polling and other data in the seven key swing states. ByGeoffrey Skelley and Mary Radcliffe October 14, 2024, 4:04 PM The entire nation will vote on the next president of the United States this fall, but the election will likely come down to seven key swing states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
Which way are key demographic groups leaning in the 2024 election? Original
We’re now just about a month away from Election Day, and both former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris have been hard at work trying to persuade voters to pull the lever (or fill in the bubble, or touch the screen …) for them in November.
Why Nevada is so close in 2024 Original
Our second deep dive into polling and other data in the seven key swing states. ByMonica Potts, Jennifer Vilcarino, and Mary Radcliffe September 27, 2024, 2:17 PM The entire nation will vote on the next president of the United States this fall, but the election will likely come down to seven key swing states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
How Democrats could finally win North Carolina in 2024 Original
Our first deep dive into polling and other data in the seven key swing states. ByMary Radcliffe and Nathaniel Rakich September 19, 2024, 3:45 PM The entire nation will vote on the next president of the United States this fall, but the election will likely come down to seven key swing states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
How much momentum will RFK Jr.'s endorsement give Trump? Original
Polls show Kennedy's supporters only slightly favor the former president. ByG. Elliott Morris and Mary Radcliffe Independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. announced Friday that he had suspended his campaign for the presidency and endorsed former President Donald Trump (though he said he will remain on the ballot in states that are not competitive at the presidential level).
Harris is starting to rebuild the Biden coalition Original
But she still lags the party’s 2020 performance among key demographic groups. It has now been just over four weeks since President Joe Biden dropped out of the presidential race and Vice President Kamala Harris became the de facto nominee of the Democratic Party. Over that time, Harris and her campaign have taken steps to reintroduce her to the American people, reimagining Biden's campaign to match her different personality and appeal to new voters.
Americans don’t like Project 2025 Original
Welcome to Pollapalooza, our occasional polling column. Project 2025 could be an albatross for Trump There's been some infighting among conservatives lately over a package of sweeping conservative policy proposals known as "Project 2025." Conservative groups developed the plan as a sort of wish list for if former President Donald Trump gets reelected, and it contains policies widely considered to align with his vision for governance.
What 8 potential Kamala Harris VP picks bring to the table
ABC7 New York 24/7 Eyewitness News Stream THE LOOP | NYC Weather and Traffic Cams WATCH LIVE Welcome, Manage MyDisney Account Log Out We looked at polls, resumes and more to assess the likely front-runners.
What 8 potential Kamala Harris VP picks bring to the table
Welcome to NewsBreak, an open platform where diverse perspectives converge. Most of our content comes from established publications and journalists, as well as from our extensive network of tens of thousands of creators who contribute to our platform. We empower individuals to share insightful viewpoints through short posts and comments.
What 8 potential Kamala Harris VP picks bring to the table
We looked at polls, resumes and more to assess the likely front-runners. ByMary Radcliffe and Cooper Burton President Joe Biden's withdrawal from the presidential race on Sunday set off a whirlwind of activity among Democrats to coalesce around Vice President Kamala Harris as the party's pick to replace him.
It's not just vibes. Americans' perception of the economy has completely changed.
There's a question journalists, economists and President Joe Biden's campaign have been puzzling over for months: Why, when every traditional indicator is positive, are Americans so displeased with the economy? According to the most recent jobs report, job growth is steady, unemployment remains low and wages are rising. The gross domestic product, a common measure of the health of the economy, has been growing since the second quarter of 2020.
South Carolina, Nevada, North Dakota primaries and Ohio special election 2024: Live results and analysis
LIVE UPDATES It's another packed primary day this Tuesday, as voters in South Carolina, Maine, North Dakota and Nevada weigh in on who will make the ballot this fall. We've had our eyes on a slew of Republican primaries tonight, including several competitive contests for U.S. House seats, as well as contests to pick Nevada's GOP Senate nominee — who will challenge incumbent Democratic Sen. Jacky Rosen this fall — and effectively pick the next governor of North Dakota. In South Carolina, Rep.
Maryland, West Virginia and Nebraska primaries 2024: Live results and analysis
LIVE UPDATES Tuesday is another busy primary day, with voters in Maryland, Nebraska and West Virginia heading to the polls to decide who will be on the ballot this fall. As usual, 538 reporters and contributors will be live-blogging the election results as they come in. We’re tracking nearly a dozen races that could have implications for who wins the Senate and House in November, as well as how far right or left the new Congress will be. Join us below for up-to-the-minute vote counts and analysis.
Maryland, West Virginia and Nebraska primaries 2024: Live results and analysis
LIVE UPDATES Tuesday is another busy primary day, with voters in Maryland, Nebraska and West Virginia heading to the polls to decide who will be on the ballot this fall. As usual, 538 reporters and contributors will be live-blogging the election results as they come in. We’re tracking nearly a dozen races that could have implications for who wins the Senate and House in November, as well as how far right or left the new Congress will be. Join us below for up-to-the-minute vote counts and analysis.
How Trump's trial is (not) changing the polls
Plus, the latest polling on campus protests and marijuana legalization. ByMonica Potts, Mary Radcliffe, and Cooper Burton Welcome to Pollapalooza, our occasional polling column. Trump's trial isn't changing minds yet We're now in the second week of testimony in the trial of former President Donald Trump, in which he's accused of paying hush money to adult film actress Stormy Daniels.
The 8 types of Democrats and Republicans in the House
We analyzed voting patterns to see if members actually vote with their caucuses. ByTia Yang, Cooper Burton, Mary Radcliffe, Katie Marriner, and Amina Brown A new 538 analysis of voting data reveals that while many members' formal caucus affiliations matched up pretty well with their voting behaviors, some did not.
The 8 Types Of Democrats And Republicans In The House
We analyzed voting patterns to see if members actually vote with their caucuses. Some say Congress is a lot like high school — but who lawmakers vote with isn't necessarily who they sit with in the cafeteria. We were interested in whether members’ formal ideological caucus affiliations matched up with how they actually voted. Is every member of the Problem Solvers Caucus actually voting to advance bipartisan legislation?
Americans really love their governors
Pollsters differ on how much, but most hold high approval ratings. ByCooper Burton and Mary Radcliffe On a cool day last October, while federal officials in Washington, D.C., were squabbling to elect a new speaker of the House, Phil Scott was talking about construction. The Vermont governor stood in a spacious workshop outside Montpelier, the state capital, surrounded by wooden beams and workers wearing bright blue hard hats.
Final thought: The real winner is presidency-centered parties
LIVE UPDATES It's Super Tuesday — the biggest election day of the year until the one in November! Fifteen states hold their GOP presidential nominating contests today, and 854 delegates are up for grabs. It's also the first downballot primary day of 2024, with important contests for Senate, House and governor in states like Alabama, California, North Carolina and Texas. As usual, 538 reporters, analysts and contributors will be live-blogging the election results tonight as they come in.
Super Tuesday primaries 2024: Live results and analysis Original
LIVE UPDATES It's Super Tuesday — the biggest election day of the year until the one in November! Fifteen states hold their GOP presidential nominating contests today, and 854 delegates are up for grabs. It's also the first downballot primary day of 2024, with important contests for Senate, House and governor in states like Alabama, California, North Carolina and Texas. As usual, 538 reporters, analysts and contributors will be live-blogging the election results tonight as they come in.
Super Tuesday primaries 2024: Live results and analysis
LIVE UPDATES It's Super Tuesday — the biggest election day of the year until the one in November! Fifteen states hold their GOP presidential nominating contests today, and 854 delegates are up for grabs. It's also the first downballot primary day of 2024, with important contests for Senate, House and governor in states like Alabama, California, North Carolina and Texas. As usual, 538 reporters, analysts and contributors will be live-blogging the election results tonight as they come in.
Super Tuesday primaries 2024: Live results and analysis Original
LIVE UPDATES It's Super Tuesday — the biggest election day of the year until the one in November! Fifteen states hold their GOP presidential nominating contests today, and 854 delegates are up for grabs. It's also the first downballot primary day of 2024, with important contests for Senate, House and governor in states like Alabama, California, North Carolina and Texas. As usual, 538 reporters, analysts and contributors will be live-blogging the election results tonight as they come in.
Super Tuesday primaries 2024: Live results and analysis Original
LIVE UPDATES It's Super Tuesday — the biggest election day of the year until the one in November! Fifteen states hold their GOP presidential nominating contests today, and 854 delegates are up for grabs. It's also the first downballot primary day of 2024, with important contests for Senate, House and governor in states like Alabama, California, North Carolina and Texas. As usual, 538 reporters, analysts and contributors will be live-blogging the election results tonight as they come in.
Uncommitted votes look pretty similar to Obama’s 2012 reelection bid Original
LIVE UPDATES It's Super Tuesday — the biggest election day of the year until the one in November! Fifteen states hold their GOP presidential nominating contests today, and 854 delegates are up for grabs. It's also the first downballot primary day of 2024, with important contests for Senate, House and governor in states like Alabama, California, North Carolina and Texas. As usual, 538 reporters, analysts and contributors will be live-blogging the election results tonight as they come in.
Super Tuesday primaries 2024: Live results and analysis Original
LIVE UPDATES It's Super Tuesday — the biggest election day of the year until the one in November! Fifteen states hold their GOP presidential nominating contests today, and 854 delegates are up for grabs. It's also the first downballot primary day of 2024, with important contests for Senate, House and governor in states like Alabama, California, North Carolina and Texas. As usual, 538 reporters, analysts and contributors will be live-blogging the election results tonight as they come in.
Super Tuesday primaries 2024: Live results and analysis Original
LIVE UPDATES It's Super Tuesday — the biggest election day of the year until the one in November! Fifteen states hold their GOP presidential nominating contests today, and 854 delegates are up for grabs. It's also the first downballot primary day of 2024, with important contests for Senate, House and governor in states like Alabama, California, North Carolina and Texas. As usual, 538 reporters, analysts and contributors will be live-blogging the election results tonight as they come in.
GOP primaries for the Texas state House could be a bloodbath
LIVE UPDATES It's Super Tuesday — the biggest election day of the year until the one in November! Fifteen states hold their GOP presidential nominating contests today, and 854 delegates are up for grabs. It's also the first downballot primary day of 2024, with important contests for Senate, House and governor in states like Alabama, California, North Carolina and Texas. As usual, 538 reporters, analysts and contributors will be live-blogging the election results tonight as they come in.
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