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Niall MacKay

As seen in: Wiley, Oxford Academic, The Conversation, Routledge, Scroll.in, EPJ, International Journal of Forecasting
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Articles

Who has the best probabilities? Luck versus skill in prediction tournaments

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By Niall MacKay
| Oxford Academic Verified
For many years now, the mathematics department at the University of York has run prediction tournaments for the soccer Euros and World Cup finals. Everyone submits their probabilities for each match – win, draw, loss – and is scored on the outcome. One year Stephen Hawking joined in, but he didn’t do very well. I won the first tournament, in 2010, just using back-of-the-envelope probability estimates, but did much worse once others started using FIFA and UEFA data to inform their estimates.
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Robustness of steady state and stochastic cyclicity in generalized coalescence-fragmentation models

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By Brennen T. Fagan, Niall MacKay, A. Jamie Wood, Heslington Lane
| EPJ
Eur. Phys. J.
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ASA-CRC Series on Statistical Reasoning in Science and Society

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By Brennen T. Fagan, Ian Horwood, Niall MacKay, Christopher Price
| Routledge Verified
1st Edition By Brennen Fagan, Ian Horwood, Niall MacKay, Christopher Price, A. Jamie Wood September 27, 2023 Forces shaping human history are complex, but the course of history is undeniably changed on many occasions by conscious acts. These may be premeditated or responsive, calmly calculated or performed under great pressure. They may also be successful or catastrophic, but how are historians to make ...
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