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Articles by Ray Perryman
THE ECONOMIST | Labor Force Participation - The Henderson News Original
The Labor Force Participation Rate (LFPR) is a closely watched indicator of the level of engagement of people in the workforce, whether employed or seeking a job. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) tracks the measure, which has recently fallen to levels not seen since the mid-1970s (excluding the pandemic). While notable, the implications of the decline are somewhat nuanced.
THE ECONOMIST | Affordability - The Henderson News Original
Over the past few years, costs of living have increased significantly faster than wages, thus creating a major affordability problem for millions of Americans. It is a hot-button campaign topic at present, but the real issue is much more visceral. It is multifaceted, and solutions won’t be simple. Let’s briefly explore how we arrived at this point. The affordability issue at its current level of urgency has its origins in the later stages of the pandemic.
THE ECONOMIST | Making Stuff - The Henderson News Original
One of the most important economic sectors to long-term growth is manufacturing, which is the process of making stuff. Manufacturing is what economists call a “basic” (or export) industry, meaning that it is one that creates value and incomes in an area rather than supporting a population and using that income. It also leads to some of the largest dynamic or “ripple” effects through the economy, thus generating additional business activity.
THE ECONOMIST | Some Work to Do - The Henderson News Original
We are accustomed to Texas topping virtually every ranking relating to the economy—most major corporate locations and expansions, top CEO perceptions, highest investment, and many others. By one measure, however, the results are more of a mixed bag. The list of top states for business compiled annually by CNBC, takes a broader perspective across multiple dimensions. Viewed through this comprehensive lens, the news is not all good.
THE ECONOMIST | Brexit – 10 Years Later - The Henderson News Original
About 10 years ago, voters in the United Kingdom (UK) voted to leave the European Union (EU). Key issues in the decision included a desire for more control and autonomy, with less immigration without the EU’s policy of free movement. Proponents thought the UK would not only save billions of pounds in EU membership fees but would also be able to negotiate better trade deals without the EU bureaucracy. After heated debate, the referendum narrowly passed with 52% of voters choosing to leave.
THE ECONOMIST | Powering Progress - The Henderson News Original
The phenomenon that is AI, while certainly explosive, can only expand as rapidly as its essential fuel allows. With available land and opportunities to generate electricity, Texas is emerging as a primary center for the massive data centers that enable AI. Approximately one-fourth of all new activity (some 140 projects) is presently ongoing in the state, which is rapidly displacing Virginia as the epicenter of this activity. Our firm has analyzed dozens of these initiatives.
THE ECONOMIST | Thirsty Texas - The Henderson News Original
The Texas Water Development Board (TWDB) regularly engages in an extensive strategic effort resulting in the State Water Plan. The goal is to have a large enough water supply based on expected population and economic growth and a recurrence of the worst droughts in history, the “drought of record,” which is generally when water supplies are lowest and demands are highest.
THE ECONOMIST | Jobs – A Closer Look - The Henderson News Original
Despite a chaotic period for the economy, the job market has remained fairly steady. Uncertainty was rampant, with on-again-off-again tariffs, geopolitical conflicts reaching new levels of intensity (and directly involving the United States), immigration crackdowns and other policy changes impacting workforce availability, and surging investment in and use of AI. Even amidst this milieu, overall jobs data looks okay (at least on the surface and for the moment).
Cracks in the oil cartel
Deah Nix talks responsible styling By McKenna Dunworth Standard-Radio Post reporter  Deah Nix was born to work in trucking. Her parents ran the family transportation business on warm customer service and excellent communication. She le...
THE ECONOMIST | Mega Metro Magnets - Kilgore News Herald
People continue to come to Texas, and the state’s largest Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) are where most of them are landing (almost 88% in the top four alone). I wrote about Texas population growth in a prior column when the state data was released, and the gist is that while the pace of expansion slowed markedly due to reduced domestic and international in-migration, the increase was far larger than any other state at more than 391,240 – about 1,072 new Texans every day.
The pros and cons of $100 oil
News Dr. Ray Perryman, on April 8, 2026 The pros and cons of $100 oil The ongoing conflict in the Middle East has sent oil prices surging, with West Texas Intermediate Crude prices up from below $60 a few months ago to above $100 on several recent days.
THE ECONOMIST | $100 Oil - The Henderson News Original
The ongoing conflict in the Middle East has sent oil prices surging, with West Texas Intermediate Crude prices up from below $60 a few months ago to above $100 on several recent days. In addition to disrupting Middle East production capacity, the conflict has brought the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz at times. With about 20% of the world’s oil navigating the Strait, supplies have dropped and prices have risen.
Balance returning to housing market after COVID bubble
News Dr. Ray Perryman, on April 1, 2026 Balance returning to housing market after COVID bubble We are finally seeing some balance returning to the Texas housing market, although notable issues remain (particularly affordability and supply).
THE ECONOMIST | Housing - The Henderson News Original
We are finally seeing some balance returning to the Texas housing market, although notable issues remain (particularly affordability and supply). Prices are flattening and even dropping in some areas, and houses are staying on the market considerably longer than a few years ago. However, the current situation is more a reflection of slowing economic growth than a massive correction, and some buyers are benefiting.
THE ECONOMIST | Natural Gas - Kilgore News Herald
The amount of natural gas produced and marketed in the United States reached a record high in 2025, up by 5.3 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) to average 118.5 Bcf/d, according to data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA). About two thirds of production occurs in three regions—Appalachia, the Permian Basin, and the Haynesville Shale. These three areas accounted for 81% of the growth last year.
Encouraging progress on Texas education levels
News Dr. Ray Perryman on March 4, 2026 Encouraging progress on Texas education levels The overall education level of Americans is rising according to new data from the U.S. Census Bureau, and Texas has seen some encouraging gains.
CO2 emissions have decreased in every state
News Dr. Ray Perryman, on October 22, 2025 CO2 emissions have decreased in every state
Healthy Freddie/Frannie makes for healthy homes
News Dr. Ray Perryman, on October 15, 2025 Healthy Freddie/Frannie makes for healthy homes
Churn in labor market clear with 2025 numbers
News Dr. Ray Perryman, on October 8, 2025 Churn in labor market clear with 2025 numbers
Texas ranks well in inmigration
News Dr. Ray Perryman, on October 1, 2025 Texas ranks well in inmigration
The Economist: A matter of degree
The US Census Bureau recently released some interesting new data related to the demographic, social, and geographic characteristics of bachelor’s degree holders in the country by field of study. The report indicates that almost 36% of US adults aged 25 and over had a bachelor’s degree (or higher) in 2022. The field of study chosen affects potential occupations, opportunities, and economic returns.
Workers spend longer hours working due to technology
News Dr. Ray Perryman, on July 23, 2025 Workers spend longer hours working due to technology U.S workforce is frazzled, frustrated, fatigued
The Economist: Frazzled, Frustrated, and Fatigued!
Sometimes, our modern technological advances are two edged, and what begins as an improvement may ultimately end up having an unanticipated negative effect on productivity. A recent report by Microsoft illustrates a widespread example of this phenomenon. Trillions of globally aggregated and anonymized Microsoft 365 data bits were used to identify patterns (which are also likely occurring with other, similar platforms).
The Economist: Frazzled, Frustrated, and Fatigued!
Sometimes, our modern technological advances are two edged, and what begins as an improvement may ultimately end up having an unanticipated negative effect on productivity. A recent report by Microsoft illustrates a widespread example of this phenomenon. Trillions of globally aggregated and anonymized Microsoft 365 data bits were used to identify patterns (which are also likely occurring with other, similar platforms).
The Economist: The Texas Economic Outlook
Though certainly not immune to national and global issues (particularly with regard to tariff and immigration policies), Texas continues to display notable momentum. The state is emerging as an epicenter for the ongoing digital transformation, with semiconductor plants and their associated suppliers, data centers, crypto miners, and others choosing to locate in the state. Life sciences and other emerging industries are also seeing accelerated activity.
The Economist: The Texas Economic Outlook
Though certainly not immune to national and global issues (particularly with regard to tariff and immigration policies), Texas continues to display notable momentum. The state is emerging as an epicenter for the ongoing digital transformation, with semiconductor plants and their associated suppliers, data centers, crypto miners, and others choosing to locate in the state. Life sciences and other emerging industries are also seeing accelerated activity.
The Economist: Housing Headaches
The US housing market continues to struggle, with 2024 sales of existing homes reaching a 30-year low and affordability remaining a major challenge for many potential buyers. Although the most recent data shows some signs of improvement in selected measures, other problems are persisting. Let’s hit a few high points. May sales of existing homes across the nation were up slightly compared to April (on a seasonally adjusted basis) but were down compared to last May. Sales of new homes were also down.
The Economist: Housing Headaches
The US housing market continues to struggle, with 2024 sales of existing homes reaching a 30-year low and affordability remaining a major challenge for many potential buyers. Although the most recent data shows some signs of improvement in selected measures, other problems are persisting. Let’s hit a few high points. May sales of existing homes across the nation were up slightly compared to April (on a seasonally adjusted basis) but were down compared to last May. Sales of new homes were also down.
The Economist: Turning on the Juice!
The 89th Session of the Texas Legislature adjourned on June 2 after 140 days. As with every biennium, there were both good and not-so-good elements of the outcome. Considerable progress was made in dealing with a number of challenges facing the state, including, among others, public school finance and teacher pay (though much remains to be done), water supplies, rural health care, wildfire preparation, and the current topic of electric power supplies and the stability of the grid.
The Economist: Partly Cloudy
The US economy is presently facing daunting challenges on multiple fronts. Nonetheless, signs of remarkable underlying strength and resilience persist. Our latest forecast indicates reasonable growth over the next five years, although the pace will likely be uneven and backloaded in light of current uncertainty. In other words, the crystal ball is a bit cloudier than usual.
The Economist: Partly Cloudy
The US economy is presently facing daunting challenges on multiple fronts. Nonetheless, signs of remarkable underlying strength and resilience persist. Our latest forecast indicates reasonable growth over the next five years, although the pace will likely be uneven and backloaded in light of current uncertainty. In other words, the crystal ball is a bit cloudier than usual.
The Economist: Glaring Global Gloom
A new report on the global economic outlook has recently been released. The World Economic Forum regularly surveys chief economists, with the current information collected during the first half of April. The findings are worthy of note. I would like to say that the negative outlook pervading the new report is surprising, but unfortunately it is expected.
The Economist: Harming Health Hurts!
Medicaid allows some of the nation’s most vulnerable residents to obtain needed health care, thus improving the lives of individuals and families. Without insurance coverage, many people will postpone needed appointments or even forego essential treatments. The inevitable result is worse health outcomes and even higher death rates as manageable problems escalate. Empirical evidence suggests that increasing Medicaid coverage improves health and reduces mortality rates.
The Economist: Harming Health Hurts!
Medicaid allows some of the nation’s most vulnerable residents to obtain needed health care, thus improving the lives of individuals and families. Without insurance coverage, many people will postpone needed appointments or even forego essential treatments. The inevitable result is worse health outcomes and even higher death rates as manageable problems escalate. Empirical evidence suggests that increasing Medicaid coverage improves health and reduces mortality rates.
The Economist: Harming Health Hurts!
Medicaid allows some of the nation’s most vulnerable residents to obtain needed health care, thus improving the lives of individuals and families. Without insurance coverage, many people will postpone needed appointments or even forego essential treatments. The inevitable result is worse health outcomes and even higher death rates as manageable problems escalate. Empirical evidence suggests that increasing Medicaid coverage improves health and reduces mortality rates.
And so it begins… - Fredericksburg Standard
As a real estate agent, Greg Oehler knows he plays an important role in the lives of his customers. “For most of the people we deal with, it’s the lar...
The Economist: And So It Begins…
The economic theories supporting free trade were introduced in the early 19th century, when the basic concepts of comparative advantage were logically and mathematically derived. It is one of those ideas that we don’t often ponder, but it has played a fundamental role in shaping our world and is the reason why we have an integrated global business complex that has allowed the US to become the strongest economy in human history.
The Economist: A little dip
During the first quarter, US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) fell for the first time since we began emerging from the pandemic. It wasn’t a huge amount – just a 0.3% drop on an annualized basis – yet it was a sharp contrast to the 2.4% gain observed during the previous quarter. Let’s dig a little deeper. The formal definition of GDP is the market value of all final goods and services produced in a year.
United States tariff saga continues; stakes remain high
News Dr. Ray Perryman, on May 21, 2025 United States tariff saga continues; stakes remain high
The Economist: Productivity
Labor productivity rates essentially measure the amount of gross domestic product created per hour of work. It is a crucial measure of both current and potential future economic performance. Simply stated, if you multiply the number of hours worked by the amount of output that each of those hours produces, you have defined total production. Fortunately, recent data for the United States indicates a significant uptick. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics tracks this information.
The Economist: Productivity
Labor productivity rates essentially measure the amount of gross domestic product created per hour of work. It is a crucial measure of both current and potential future economic performance. Simply stated, if you multiply the number of hours worked by the amount of output that each of those hours produces, you have defined total production. Fortunately, recent data for the United States indicates a significant uptick. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics tracks this information.
Projections show Texas trade volumes will fall due to tariffs
May 15 kickoff event to encourage support initiatives The Grace Center will kick off its Grace Ambassador program to promote healthy relationships and support for peers on Thursday, May 15 from 6 to 9 p.m...
The Economist: Tradewinds
We’re beginning to see the fallout from the increase in tariffs across the spectrum. Although there was a recent bump in imports as firms rushed to fill warehouses in advance of the levies, projections are indicating that trade volumes will fall this year. Lower trade is, in turn, contributing to projections for slower economic growth and higher prices than would occur otherwise.
The Economist: Tradewinds
We’re beginning to see the fallout from the increase in tariffs across the spectrum. Although there was a recent bump in imports as firms rushed to fill warehouses in advance of the levies, projections are indicating that trade volumes will fall this year. Lower trade is, in turn, contributing to projections for slower economic growth and higher prices than would occur otherwise.
The Economist: Literal lifetime literacy liability
It is impossible to overstate the importance of literacy from a personal, professional, economic, or societal perspective. Texas has quite a bit of work to do! The National Assessment of Education Progress (NAEP) is a test given to students in grades four and eight. It provides a snapshot of how things are going by state, with comparisons to both other areas and past performance. The Texas data provides insights into reading levels.
The Economist: Literal lifetime literacy liability
It is impossible to overstate the importance of literacy from a personal, professional, economic, or societal perspective. Texas has quite a bit of work to do! The National Assessment of Education Progress (NAEP) is a test given to students in grades four and eight. It provides a snapshot of how things are going by state, with comparisons to both other areas and past performance. The Texas data provides insights into reading levels.
The Economist: Five-alarm fire!!
The day after the election last November, the stock market enjoyed a really strong day, while the bond market did not. That was not at all surprising. The election brought the likelihood of lower taxes and less regulation, both of which make equities more attractive. It also brought fears of higher inflation, which tend to drive interest rates up and make bonds less desirable. Things have changed A LOT since then with all of the uncertainty but therein lies a critical lesson.
The Economist: Tariffs and Oil
The oil and gas industry has been hit quickly and hard by the recent tariff brouhaha, with prices dropping significantly compared to recent levels (at least as of the time that I am writing). I’ve been asked several times whether the situation is likely to lead to a sustained “bust” in the industry. There is obviously much uncertainty, but here are a few initial thoughts.
The Economist: Uncertainty
We’ve recently seen a rapid increase in uncertainty in the US (and, in fact, the global) economy. Policies related to tariffs are a major source of concern, with a large number of announcements, pauses, shifts, and exemptions causing confusion. Consumers as well as companies are trying to figure out what is going to happen and how they should prepare. In a similar vein, the major shifts in agency funding and missions and frequent backtracking are sources of ongoing consternation.
The Economist: A Baker’s Dozen
Texas continues to dominate the major corporate location and expansion landscape in the US, winning Site Selection magazine’s 2024 “Governor’s Cup” for an unprecedented 13th year in a row. The Cup is awarded annually to the state with the most projects involving a capital investment of at least $1 million, 20 or more new jobs, or at least 20,000 square feet of new construction. The 2024 total was the highest ever for Texas. Texas gained 1,368 projects, up from 1,254 in 2023.
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