Articles by Sam Lowe
Brussels or Beijing? The EU’s ‘Made in Europe’ plans will force the UK to choose
Recently imported cars, mainly electric vehicles made by Chinese company MG, at the Port of Bristol on 15 January 2025. (Photo by Anna Barclay/Getty Images) The EU’s Industrial Accelerator Act (IAA) is pushing the UK toward an economic confrontation with China it would rather avoid. The IAA plans to introduce new ‘Made in Europe’ obligations, conditioning access to certain public subsidy and procurement schemes on the use of sufficient local, European, content.
Brussels or Beijing? The EU’s ‘Made in Europe’ plans will force the UK to choose
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Tariffs are dead, long live tariffs
[Programme note: Apologies for the slight break — I was on holiday and then travelling a lot with work. To make it up to you, this is going to be a bit of a bumper edition.] Last week, USTR published the findings of its first (of two) major Section 301 investigations that will form the legal foundation for Trump’s tariff agenda, post Supreme Court striking down his IEEPA tariffs.
Where Is The Tariff Inflation?
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Where Is The Tariff Inflation?
One of my less popular lines of questioning prior to Trump’s election was whether his proposed tariff hikes really would lead to the high levels of inflation predicted by some.
Tariffs, Tariffs, and More Tariffs
Estimating the possible impact of tariffs on imports requires you to make an assumption about the so-called trade elasticity. For example, if a 10% tariff increase is assumed to lead to a 5% reduction in imports, then the trade elasticity is 0.5. If a 10% tariff increase leads to a 10% reduction in imports, the trade elasticity is 1.0. If a 10% tariff increase leads to a 20% reduction in imports, the trade elasticity is 2.0. Etc. Obviously, different products have different elasticities.
Yorke Peninsula without power, fire danger concerns on horizon
SA News Don't miss out on the headlines from SA News. Followed categories will be added to My News. Fire services have warned relying on power might not be the best option, with more than 25,000 homes without power in SA and extreme fire weather on its way. SA Power Outages map showed as of 6.30am on Friday, 27,000 customers across SA were in the dark – most of them the Yorke Peninsula, though there were also outages on KI, Cape Jaffa and the Coorong.
How to survive a trade war with the United States
Sam Lowe is a partner at Flint Global, where he advises clients on UK and EU trade policy.
Brussels is gambling that tariffs on Chinese EVs are a prod, not a punch
Sam Lowe is a partner at Flint Global, where he advises clients on UK and EU trade policy.
The all-American cheat sheet to Europe’s trade weak spots
Sam Lowe is a partner at Flint Global, where he advises clients on UK and EU trade policy.
The parcel war is about to begin
Sam Lowe is a partner at Flint Global, where he advises clients on UK and EU trade policy.
The EU needs a bigger playing field - not a level playing field
European policy-makers increasingly see the EU’s commitment to open markets as naïve. They are concerned about the constraints EU firms face when competing, in the EU or abroad, with businesses from the EU’s major trading and investment partners – especially, but not exclusively, China. To tackle this problem, the EU is developing instruments to unilaterally limit or regulate some foreign companies’ access to its market.
CBAM: what might an EU carbon-border adjustment mechanism mean for the UK?
The EU wants to introduce a Carbon-Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) to ensure that its efforts to combat climate change are effective, and do not just lead to European heavy industry relocating to jurisdictions with weaker climate rules. On 17 July the European Commission published its proposal as part of its broader ‘Fit for 55’ climate package. The CBAM now needs to be signed off by the member states and European Parliament – and will inevitably be tweaked along the way.
Most Favoured Nation: The Mystery of the Missing Protocol
Hello! Welcome to my newsletter, Most Favoured Nation. If you’re enjoying these AND would like to receive MFN in your inbox every week (instead of just every fortnight), please do consider becoming a paid subscriber.[1] I’d appreciate it! --- I’ll be joining Dmitry Grozoubinski and Anna Isaac to discuss trade shenanigans over at Dmitry’s twitch feed on Monday at 19:30 UK time – tune in here.
Most Favoured Nation: The Treaty of Waitangi
Hello! Welcome to the 10th edition of my newsletter, Most Favoured Nation. This one is a bit of a mammoth edition, so hopefully you find it useful. If you’re enjoying these AND would like to receive MFN in your inbox every week (instead of just every fortnight), please do consider becoming a paid subscriber.[1] I’d appreciate it. --- I’ll be joining Dmitry Grozoubinski and Anna Isaac to discuss trade shenanigans over at Dmitry’s twitch feed on Monday at 19:30 UK time – tune in here.
Most Favoured Nation: Positive Sausage Signals
Hello! Welcome to the ninth edition of my newsletter, Most Favoured Nation. And if you’re reading this one, thank you for subscribing – I appreciate it. As ever, do let me know what you would like to see more/less of. Share --- More beef from down under If you thought that just because I’d spent quite a lot of time discussing the Everything But Rice Agreement (U…
Most Favoured Nation: The Everything But Rice Agreement
G’day! (I have been told by top Aussie trade lawyer Lorand Bartels I am now allowed to use this greeting freely.) Welcome to the eighth edition of my newsletter, Most Favoured Nation. Do let me know what you like, what you don’t like, and what you would like to see more of. --- This is the fortnightly, free, edition of MFN. If you would like to receive MFN in your inbox every week, please do consider becoming a paid subscriber.[1] It’s very reasonably priced, honest.
Most Favoured Nation: Chlorinated Chicken Could Save the WTO
Hello! Welcome to the sixth edition of my newsletter, Most Favoured Nation. A little update: as of this week, I am introducing a paid subscription option. Those of you who want to receive the newsletter every single week (unless I’m on holiday or something) can now do so for £4 a month, using the button below.1 A bargain, I know. Equally, those of you who are happy receiving the newsletter fortnightly for free can also keep doing that.
Most Favoured Nation: Who Wants to be a Brexit Billionaire?
Hello! Welcome to the fourth edition of my fortnightly newsletter, Most Favoured Nation. Thank you for all of the kind comments so far, they are much appreciated. And if you haven’t subscribed, please do. I will once again be joining Dmitry Grozoubinski and Anna Isaac to discuss trade shenanigans over at Dmitry’s twitch feed – tune in here at 19:30pm UK time on Monday. Cash Money British firms are still struggling to navigate the new customs border between the UK and EU.
Most Favoured Nation: Put Another Shrimp/Cow/Lamb on the Barbie
Hello! Welcome to the fifth edition of my fortnightly newsletter, Most Favoured Nation. Do let me know what you like, what you don’t like, and what you would like to see more of. And if you haven’t yet subscribed, please do. I will once again be joining Dmitry Grozoubinski and Anna Isaac to discuss trade shenanigans over at Dmitry’s twitch feed – tune in here at 19:30pm UK time on Monday. From down under The UK’s trade talks with Australia are back in the news this week.
‘Global Britain’ must get real on migration
Sam Lowe is a senior research fellow at the Centre for European Reform. The U.K. is a genuine services superpower. But it needs to find an approach to immigration that can meet the needs of a modern trading nation. Britain doesn’t only specialize in high finance: it’s also world-leading in consulting, accountancy, law, music, TV and film production, and advertising.
Recent gaffes by Ursula von der Leyen and Josep Borrell, over COVID-19 vaccination roll-out and Russia policy respectively, have irritated member-states. But governments are ultimately responsible for the EU’s leadership woes, and they need to make the effort to fix them. The EU’s top leadership has got off to bad start in 2021.
6 Greatest Adaptations of 2021
Shadow and Bone The land of Ravka is threatened by the Volkras, monsters that live beyond Shadow Canyon. That’s what the natives call the strip of darkness that cuts off their country from the sea. There is a war between the humans and the creatures, and orphan Alina Starkova is sent to the battlefield. While saving her friend, she discovers a magical gift in herself.
The competition for ‘Merkel voters’ has started, and the CDU needs a leader able to keep her broad coalition of supporters together. That may well be health minister Jens Spahn. The German Christian Democrats (CDU) need a new party leader, after Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, or AKK for short, failed to fill Angela Merkel’s shoes and resigned in February 2020. This next CDU leader has a good chance of becoming the conservative candidate for chancellor in the German elections this autumn.
The Brexit deal is being celebrated as though it removes all tariffs. It doesn’t
Motor manufacturers may face new tariff barriers—with implications for their business models. Photo: Chris Ison/PA Archive/PA Images The newly signed EU-UK trade and co-operation agreement (TCA) does little to remove bureaucracy at the border, or facilitate trade in services, but it does at least remove all tariffs and quotas, right? In practice, the answer is: it depends.
Committee on the Future Relationship with the European Union
At 9.30am: Oral evidence Inquiry Progress of the negotiations on the UK’s Future Relationship with the EU former Special Adviser to the Prime Minister on Europe at Deloitte UK Senior Research Fellow at Centre for European Reform
Most Favoured Nation: Let's See How It Goes
Hello! Welcome to the first edition of my newsletter, Most Favoured Nation. I’ll discuss whatever trade issues, gossip, research, or analysis has peaked my interest at the time of writing. Hopefully you will find it useful. If not, please tell me what I should do to make it better. I’ll be publishing every fortnight or so. Full disclosure: if this goes well, I might add a paid subscription option in future … but let’s not get ahead of ourselves.
Post-Brexit foreign, security and defence co-operation: We don't want to talk about it
The government of Boris Johnson sees little added value in a contractual arrangement with the EU on foreign, security and defence policy co-operation. It believes that the UK can instead work bilaterally with major EU member-states, who will then bring the rest of the member-states and the EU institutions into line. The Johnson government’s scepticism about binding external security co-operation arrangements has some justification.
CPTPP-as easy as one, two, three?
UK hopes regarding the new pacific trade pact may yet be dashed by Sam Lowe / August 4, 2020 / Leave a comment International Trade Secretary Liz Truss. Photo: Wiktor Szymanowicz/NurPhoto/PA Images The Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), a trade agreement between 11 countries including Japan, Canada, Australia and New Zealand, is all the rage in Westminster.
EU Efforts to Level Playing Field Are Not Risk-Free
Sam Lowe Centre for European Reform July 17, 2020 The EU believes other countries are taking advantage of its relative economic openness. However, unilateral action to level the playing field risks provoking retaliation and the EU will need to tread carefully. Read Full Article »
Most Favoured Nation: The EU’s nuclear deterrent
Welcome to my newsletter, Most Favoured Nation. If you’re enjoying these AND would like to receive MFN in your inbox every week (instead of just every fortnight), please do consider becoming a paid subscriber.[1] --- I’ll be joining Dmitry Grozoubinski and Anna Isaac to discuss trade shenanigans over at Dmitry’s twitch feed on Monday at 19:30 UK time – tune in here. --- This ain’t a scene, it’s an arms race Yesterday morning I freed a pigeon from our chimney.
Why Keir Starmer must revamp Labour’s trade strategy
Labour’s approach to trade under Jeremy Corbyn was informed by a hostility to globalisation. Starmer should do things rather differently. Photo: Dominic Lipinski/PA Wire/PA Images The world is facing a combination of US-China trade wars and new export restrictions on essential supplies thanks to Covid-19. Added to that the British government is in the process of Brexit. All that makes trade policy a central issue.
How to fix the Northern Ireland Protocol
Summary Brexit has meant leaving the EU’s single market and customs union, and everyone agreed there would be no border infrastructure on the island of Ireland. That required appropriate checks between Great Britain and Northern Ireland, in order to ensure that goods entering Northern Ireland destined for the Republic conformed to the rules of the EU’s single market.
The EU-UK Relationship: Reasons for Optimism
Sam Lowe Centre for European Reform March 3, 2020 Beyond the headline disagreements, both the EU and UK have similar expectations as to what a future free trade agreement can and cannot deliver. Read Full Article »
A brief history of progressive patriotism
Orwell, Woolf and Priestley can inform today’s debate by Jason Whittaker / January 14, 2020 / Leave a comment Orwell thought patriotism could be mobilised in the fight against fascism. Photo: PA/PA Archive/PA Images Labour leadership candidate Rebecca Long Bailey’s call to champion progressive patriotism at the close of 2019 led to a brief flurry of opinion pieces regarding the possible pros (and more often cons) of such a position for the party.
Fascinating airport art from around the world
Although I had to use them frequently during my days as a travel writer, airports are not very high on my list of favorite places. But I have learned to tolerate them because…well, if you’re going to fly, you’re going to wait. And, sometimes, wait and wait and wait. I guess it’s all part of some master plan to teach us patience and tolerance.
Rediscovering Christmas spirit
All of my early Christmas celebrations were spent on the frigid plains of North Dakota, where the festivities commonly involved long underwear, stocking caps with ear flaps, woolen shirts, the scent of freshly cut pine trees, the fragrance of warm apple cider, school kids with squeaky voices singing carols, fields covered with snow and a chill that nipped my nose.
Johnson’s future Brexit plan would be almost as disruptive as no deal
A “super Canada plus” agreement would still present businesses with a cliff edge by Sam Lowe / November 28, 2019 / Leave a comment Photo: Jacob King/PA Wire/PA Images If the Conservatives win the general election, Boris Johnson intends to withdraw the UK from the EU and negotiate a free trade agreement with the Union based “on the model of a super Canada plus arrangement” by the end of 2020.
Most Favoured Nation: Never Ever Tweet
Hello! Welcome to the second edition of my fortnightly newsletter, Most Favoured Nation. Thank you for all of the kind comments so far, they are much appreciated. And if you haven’t yet subscribed and told all of your friends about it, please do. (Also, as if this isn’t enough trade content for you, next week I will be joining Dmitry Grozoubinski and Anna Isaac to discuss trade shenanigans over at Dmitry’s twitch feed – tune in here 19:30pm UK time on Monday.
Heroes finally recognized
August 14 came and went relatively unnoticed for the most part, but it was a special day for a specific group of heroes. These are the Navajo Code Talkers, who played a major role in winning decisive battles during World War II. Although they were instrumental in the victories, their feats were neither praised nor recognized until 1968. Even then, their story was not widely shared. In 1982, President Ronald Reagan declared August 14 as National Code Talkers Day.
The Lowe Road…to Tombstone
When welcoming first-time, out-of-state visitors into my Arcadia home, I’m always ready for one almost-sure-to-be-asked question: How far is it to Tombstone? Always willing to help, I respond that it’s about 180 miles to the southeast, but quickly follow that with an inquiry about why they want to go there. The answer is usually the same: The gunfight at the OK Corral.
On the Lowe Road to Devils Tower
There are times when what initially appears to be an inconsiderate act turns out to be a gesture of kindness. One such circumstance occurred recently during a visit to Devils Tower, a spectacular landmark in the wilds of northern Wyoming. It was late afternoon so I wanted to get to the site before sundown but the driver in front of me had stopped, blocking the narrow road.
The fortune of the UK’s all-important services sector after Brexit is inextricably linked to how open the country is to foreign workers and consumers. Services account for around 45 per cent of total UK exports in value terms, an unusually high proportion for a medium-sized economy. The EU is the UK’s most important market, receiving roughly 40 per cent of UK services exports (the US is second, on 22 per cent).
Arizona Oddities
View of upstream face of the Coolidge Dam showing intake towers, bridges and domes. Courtesy of Historic American Buildings Survey. SAN CARLOS RESERVATION — In the 1920s, the federal government decided Arizona needed another dam. Surveyors picked a site on the Reservation, and when the new barrier was completed, they named it Coolidge Dam, after the incumbent president, who actually showed up for the dedication ceremony. Several other dignitaries also took part, including humorist Will Rogers.
Brexit fatigue is beginning to take its toll. Much of the public just want Brexit to be over and done with, and for the government to tackle neglected domestic issues. So too do British politicians. But, if Westminster finally approves an exit deal (which at the time of writing is far from certain), the UK will quickly discover that leaving the EU is just the beginning of a process that will drag on for years.
Three reasons the Irish backstop is actually a good thing
This controversial Brexit protocol is necessary and has public support by Sam Lowe / March 14, 2019 / Leave a comment The DUP is fiercely opposed to the backstop. Photo: Yui Mok/PA Wire/PA Images The Westminster debate on the Irish backstop is deeply divisive. This protocol would see Northern Ireland remain de facto in the single market for goods, and the whole UK in a customs union, in the event that another solution is not found.
How can Father Christmas deliver presents in a no deal Brexit scenario?
Baby, it’s cold outside (the EU) by Sam Lowe / December 19, 2018 / Leave a comment Father Christmas fills out a customs form. Photo: Yegor Aleyev/Tass/PA Images In the run up to 25th December, there is one issue that has not received half the attention it deserves: what happens to Father Christmas in December 2019 in the event of a no deal Brexit? The Europe leg of his trip is among his fastest and easiest.
The international role of the US dollar is deeply entrenched. To change that, Europe – and Germany in particular – would need to rethink some core economic policies. The dominance of the US dollar is a standing provocation to those who envision a more significant role for the EU in world affairs. The European economy is comparable in size and sophistication to the US economy, but its currency, the euro, plays second fiddle. For a long time, the dollar’s dominance did not seem to matter much.
The political declaration on the post-Brexit relationship between the EU and UK will probably be vague and lack legal authority. This could work to Theresa May's advantage. View it in your browser. Is this email not displaying correctly? Why a woolly political declaration might help Theresa May get her Brexit deal through Parliament The political declaration on the post-Brexit relationship between the EU and UK will probably be vague and lack legal authority.
What the Chequers Brexit plan means for the NHS
Conservative Party conference was dominated by firm views on the government’s Chequers plan for the UK’s future relationship with the EU. Boris Johnson called it “humiliating”, “dangerous” and “unstable”: the prime minister responded by saying his alternatives tore up guarantees to the people of Northern Ireland. All this can seem a long way from the nuts and bolts of what Brexit means for the NHS and life sciences in the UK.
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