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Articles by Sumit Agarwal
Real-time economic disruption and recovery from Atlantic hurricanes across the US
Abstract Climate projections indicate substantial increases in hurricane activity under continued warming, yet how local economies adjust to hurricanes in real time remains poorly understood. Using daily transaction data from 7,987 US ZIP codes exposed to 21 Atlantic hurricanes between 2017 and 2024, we examine aggregate merchant sales and consumer spending to quantify disruption and test for substitution across locations and channels.
Advancing Pharmacoequity in Asthma
A remarkable aspect of modern medicine is the ever-growing array of medications that fundamentally alter disease trajectories and improve quality of life. At the same time, persistent inequities in access to these medications remain a reality. Pharmacoequity, a term coined in a 2021 article in JAMA,1 is a specific component of health equity focused on fair and just access to appropriate medications, regardless of race, ethnicity, income, insurance coverage, and other social factors.
Cash Transfers in the Perinatal Period and Investigations of Infant Maltreatment
Supplement 1. eAppendix. Supplementary Methods eTable 1. Unit Weights for the Primary Outcome (Investigated Allegations) in the Synthetic Difference-in-Differences Analysis eTable 2. Time Weights for the Primary Outcome (Investigated Allegations) in the Synthetic Difference-in-Differences Analysis eTable 3. Results From the Original Synthetic Control Method With a Short Panel eTable 4.
Why CIOs must integrate governance into enterprise AI
This audio is auto-generated. Please let us know if you have feedback. Editor’s note: The following is a guest post from Sumit Agarwal, VP analyst at Gartner. Enterprise AI adoption is accelerating, and so are the risks of flawed decisions driven by inconsistent solutions and immature technology. Companies expect to increase their spending on generative AI by nearly 40% this year, according to Gartner data.
Schema Validation Passed - So Why Did My Pipeline Fail?
You're 3 AM. Your dashboards are blank. Your CI logs show: Schema validation: PASSED. Somewhere, a data engineer is screaming into their keyboard. This is the moment where schema validation reveals its dirty secret: it catches syntax, not reality. And the gap between what passes validation and what actually works? That gap is where production breaks. Let's talk about why your pipeline failed, and why your validation tools didn't catch it.
A simple JSON/CSV tool I built uncovered a bigger developer pain I didn’t expect
Last week I built a tiny JSON ↔ CSV tool - a simple, fast converter with beautify, minify, and small repair helpers. Nothing huge. Just something I personally wished existed in a cleaner form. I posted it on Hacker News (Show HN)… and unexpectedly, it took off. It stayed on the front page for a while and brought 1,000+ developers in a short time. Seeing so many people use it made me realize something important: That small boost of encouragement was enough to spark a new idea.
Why Investing in Health Insurance Like Care Health Schemes is a Must in 2025?
Unlocking Financial Security: Why Investing in Health Insurance Like Care Health Schemes is a Must in 2025 Today, as we reach December 2025, let us discuss something that is not just a policy on paper; it is your defence against life’s surprises: health insurance. Specifically, we will explore why plans from trusted companies like Care Health Insurance should be a top choice in your portfolio.
Why Insurance Investments Are a Must
I am excited about something timeless that is now energized by the regulatory changes coming in 2025: investing in insurance plans. Think ULIPs, endowment plans, hybrid savings policies, and term plans with investment features from major players like Axis Max Life Insurance. These options are not just safety nets; they are wealth builders that cleverly combine life protection, market-linked growth, and excellent tax benefits.
Hardship and Hope: The Relationship Between Unconditional Prenatal and Infant Cash Transfers, Economic Stability, and Maternal Mental Health and Well-Being | AJPH | Vol. 115 Issue 12
While the United States spends more on health care than any peer nation,1 there is a paucity of investment in the health and well-being of mothers and infants.
Guide to Simplified Automated GST Registration from November 1, 2025
Navigating the New Era of GST: Simplified Registration from November 1, 2025. A Step-by-Step Guide for Small Businesses Announced by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman and approved at the 56th GST Council Meeting on September 3, 2025, this overhaul aims to reduce red tape for small and low-risk businesses. New applicants can expect auto-approvals in just 3 working days for nearly 96% of cases.
GSTR-9 and GSTR-9C: Step-by-Step Guide to GST Annual Compliance
One of the major highlights of the GST year is GSTR-9 (the Annual Return) and GSTR-9C (the Reconciliation Statement), which we are discussing today. The GST portal went live on October 14, and as October 2025 approaches, filing for FY 2024–2025 is quickly approaching. A Brief Recap: GSTR-9 and GSTR-9C: What Are They? Your annual GST scorecard, or GSTR-9, is a combined summary of all your inbound and outgoing supplies, taxes paid, and input tax credit (ITC) claims made during the fiscal year.
GST 3.0: Simplified Tax Rates, Benefits & Compliance Guide
I am diving into GST 3.0, the transformative “next-generation” reform unveiled after the 56th GST Council meeting on September 3, 2025. As PM Modi highlighted in his Independence Day address, this overhaul simplifies the tax structure, boosts affordability, and streamlines compliance.
EPFO 3.0: A Game-Changer for India’s Provident Fund Landscape
Today, I am jumping into EPFO 3.0—the long-awaited upgrade to the Employees’ Provident Fund Organisation’s digital ecosystem. With the rollout planned for 2025, let us dissect what to look out for, such as guidelines, applicability, practical examples, and connections to recent circulars and notifications.
The effects of the Rx Kids unconditional cash prescription programme during pregnancy and infancy on birth outcomes in the USA: a population-based, quasi-experimental study
Introduction Adverse birth outcomes, including preterm birth and low birthweight, have important consequences for early-life survival and long-term health.1,2 These outcomes are notably worse in the USA compared with many other high-income countries.
Employment Linked Incentive (ELI) Scheme for Employers & Employees
Today, we are going to explore the Employment Linked Incentive (ELI) Scheme—a game-changer of sorts from the Indian government’s kitty to stimulate job growth. Rolled out in the Union Budget 2024-25, some major notifications and guidelines have come out in late 2024 and early 2025. What is the Employment Linked Incentive Scheme? The ELI Scheme is one of the government’s push efforts under the umbrella of Pradhan Mantri Rojgar Protsahan Yojana (PMRPY), but with a new spin.
Income-Tax Act, 2025 Receives President’s Assent; To Apply From April 1, 2026
In a historic move, the Government of India has formally notified The Income-Tax Act, 2025, a landmark legislation that received the assent of the President on August 21, 2025. This new law, which will replace the over six-decade-old Income-tax Act, 1961, is set to come into effect from April 1, 2026. The new Act aims to usher in a simpler, more transparent, and compliance-friendly direct tax regime for the country.
ITR-7 for AY 2025-26: Key Changes & Filing Guide for Trusts and Institutions
Today, we are venturing into ITR-7 for Assessment Year (AY) 2025-26, reporting income from Financial Year (FY) 2024-25. It is a monster form for non-profits, trusts, and special entities, but thanks to the recent changes by the Central Board of Direct Taxes (CBDT), it has got some new shades.
Promotion & Regulation of Online Gaming Bill, 2025: A New Era for India’s Gaming Industry
Today, I am diving into the Promotion and Regulation of Online Gaming Bill, 2025, passed by the Lok Sabha on August 20, 2025. Introduced by Union Minister Ashwini Vaishnaw, this legislation reshapes India’s ₹31,000 crore online gaming sector. Summary of Promotion and Regulation of Online Gaming Bill, 2025 The Online Gaming Bill, 2025, governs the thriving gaming sector while addressing addiction, fraud, and security threats.
Mastering ITR-U: Guide to Section 139(8A) Updated Income Tax Returns
Today, we are dealing with ITR-U – the Updated/Revised Income Tax Return under Section 139(8A). Implemented a few years ago, it is a saviour for rectifying errors, but following the latest amendments from the Finance Act 2025, there is much to be explored. Let us take it step by step, using official sources and real-world insights. What is ITR-U and Why Does It Matter? ITR-U, or the Revised Return, was introduced through the Finance Act 2022 under Section 139(8A) of the Income Tax Act, 1961.
Key Changes in ITR-6 for AY 2025-26: A Comprehensive Guide for Companies
We are focusing on ITR-6—the income tax return form that is pertinent for most companies. Now that we have the Assessment Year (AY) 2025-26 before us (aligning with Financial Year 2024-25), here are some significant changes that might influence the way you file. Who Needs to File ITR-6? Applicability Explained ITR-6 is tailor-made for those companies registered under the Companies Act, 2013 (or prior versions).
Income-Tax (No. 2) Bill, 2025: Introduced In Lok Sabha on 11th August, 2025
Income-Tax (No.2) Bill, 2025 – As Introduced In Lok Sabha On 11th August, 2025 By FM Nirmala Sitharaman Income-Tax (No. 2) Bill, 2025, that seeks to consolidate and amend the Income-tax law. It is tabled in Lok Sabha on 11th of August 2025, and consists of several clauses detailing different aspects of income tax legislation.
ITR-5 Form for AY 2025-26: Key Changes, Rules and Filing Guide
The updates concerning the ITR-5 form for Assessment Year (AY) 2025-26. The Central Board of Direct Taxes (CBDT) has made important changes to fall in line with the Finance Act, 2024, and Notification No. 42/2025, dated May 1, 2025, that taxpayers need to know to ensure proper filing.
EPFO: Mandatory UAN Generation & Activation via UMANG APP - What You Need to Know
The Employees’ Provident Fund Organisation (EPFO) has introduced a major change from August 1, 2025, that requires the allocation and activation of Universal Account Numbers (UAN) via the UMANG app using Facial Authentication Technology (FAT). As specified in Circular No. WSU/MemberProfilePt1/E-965649/2025-26/22 dated July 30, the order is towards simplifying provident fund compliance and increasing accessibility. Why This Change?
Step-by-Step Guide to Forming a Private Limited Company in India
Forming a private limited company in India is a formal process under the Companies Act, 2013, regulated by the Ministry of Corporate Affairs (MCA). With the launch of the SPICe+ (Simplified Proforma for Incorporating Company Electronically Plus) online form, things have become much easier, rolling out various services into one portal.
ITR-3 for AY 2025-26: Key Changes, How to Fill & Avoid Common Errors
Navigating ITR-3 for AY 2025-2026: Key Changes, How to Fill, Compliances, and Avoiding Common Errors Hello there, fellow taxpayers! I am thrilled to share my thoughts on the ITR-3 form for the Assessment Year (AY) 2025-2026. If you are an Individual or Hindu Undivided Family (HUF) receiving income from business or profession, then this form is probably your favourite. But with the latest changes announced by the Central Board of Direct Taxes (CBDT), there is much to unravel.
Understanding MAT for Indian Companies: A Practical Guide
Hi everyone, finance lovers! I am thrilled to present a comprehensive yet easy-to-read guide to Minimum Alternate Tax (MAT) under the Indian Income Tax Act. If you are a business owner, accountant, or simply someone who’s interested in how companies deal with this tax, this post is for you. I will dissect what MAT is, when to use it, regulations, guidelines, and guide you through filling it out on the Income Tax Portal using real-life examples.
Indonesia: Seizing the demographic bonus amid a shrinking middle class
I recently spoke to a ride-hailing driver in Jakarta with a degree in economics. He smiled when I asked why he was driving. “Pak [Mister], there are too many of us looking for the same jobs,” he said. “At least with this, I eat every day.” That conversation reflects Indonesia’s economic puzzle: a young, ambitious population overflowing with potential, but a labor market that hasn’t caught up.
MSME Updates 2025: A Saver for India’s Small Enterprises
Hello, fellow business professionals and finance buffs! If you own an India-based small or medium-sized enterprise, chances are you have your hands full with operations, money management, and compliance.
AI & Automation Transform Tax Compliance: Real-Life Instances
How AI and Automation Are Transforming Tax Compliance for the Better: Real-Life Instances Tax compliance is usually a nightmare for business and individuals alike. It involves going through complicated tax laws and ensuring that all of them are properly filed. But Artificial Intelligence (AI) and automation are revolutionizing the whole experience for the better. These technologies are speeding up the process, making it more accurate, and far less stressful.
GST TDS: Gross vs. Net Value Confusion for Businesses
Why GST TDS on Gross vs. Net Value is More Than Just a Taxing Issue for Businesses and Government Contractors As an accountant or an entrepreneur managing a corporation in India, especially one engaged in government contracts, you would have heard about the GST TDS (Tax Deducted at Source) confusion around whether GST should be deducted on gross (inclusive of GST) or net (ex GST) value.
Schedule FA & FSI: Reporting Foreign Income and Assets on Income Tax Portal
Navigating Schedule FA and FSI: Reporting Foreign Income and Assets on the Income Tax Portal As globalization continues to connect economies, many Indian residents are earning income or holding assets abroad. If you’re one of them, you’ll need to navigate the Income Tax Return (ITR) process in India with care, particularly when it comes to Schedule FA (Foreign Assets) and Schedule FSI (Foreign Source Income).
Understanding IGST Balance Utilization with Real-World Examples
In India, the Goods and Services Tax (GST) system is a game-changer for businesses, streamlining taxation across states. However, navigating the rules for utilizing Input Tax Credit (ITC) under GST can be tricky, especially when it comes to the Integrated Goods and Services Tax (IGST) balance. A common question businesses face is why an IGST balance cannot be used to offset liabilities for intra-state (within-state) sales when the Central Goods and Services Tax (CGST) credit is fully utilized.
Key Changes in Forms 3CB and 3CD for AY 2025-2026
Navigating the New Tax Audit Landscape: Key Changes in Forms 3CB and 3CD for AY 2025-2026 As the tax audit season for the Assessment Year (AY) 2025-2026 kicks off, businesses and tax professionals in India are gearing up for significant updates to the tax audit forms, particularly Form 3CB and Form 3CD.
Employers are failing to insure the working class - Medicaid cuts will leave them even more vulnerable
Written by Sumit Agarwal, an assistant professor of internal medicine at Michigan Medicine. The Congressional Budget Office estimates that 7.8 million Americans across the United States will lose their coverage through Medicaid – the public program that provides health insurance to low-income families and individuals – under the multitrillion-dollar domestic policy package that President Donald Trump signed into law on July 4, 2025.
Avoid urban development policy that fuels climate risk - Nature Climate Change
Urban development policies, designed to improve city resilience, could unintentionally increase the exposure to climate risk. This Comment discusses the impact of misaligned incentives, miscalculated benefits and costs, and overlooked behavioural responses on policy outcomes, as well as future directions.
Employers are Failing to Insure the Working Class - Medicaid Cuts Will Leave Them Even More Vulnerable
The Congressional Budget Office estimates that 7.8 million Americans across the U.S. will lose their coverage through Medicaid – the public program that provides health insurance to low-income families and individuals – under the multitrillion-dollar domestic policy package that President Donald Trump signed into law on July 4, 2025. That includes 247,000 to 412,000 of my fellow residents of Michigan.
Employers Are Failing to Insure the Working Class-Medicaid Cuts Will Leave Them Even More Vulnerable
The Congressional Budget Office estimates 7.8 million people will lose Medicaid coverage under Trump’s new domestic policy law, including access to essential laboratory testing Register for free to listen to this article The Congressional Budget Office estimates that 7.8 million Americans across the US will lose their coverage through Medicaid—the public program that provides health insurance to low-income families and individuals—under the multitrillion-dollar domestic policy package that...
Employers are failing to insure the working class - Medicaid cuts will leave them even more vulnerable
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Employers are failing to insure the working class - Medicaid cuts will leave them even more vulnerable
The Congressional Budget Office estimates that 7.8 million Americans across the U.S. will lose their coverage through Medicaid – the public program that provides health insurance to low-income families and individuals – under the multitrillion-dollar domestic policy package that President Donald Trump signed into law on July 4, 2025. That includes 247,000 to 412,000 of my fellow residents of Michigan based on the House Reconciliation Bill in early June.
Employers are failing to insure the working class - Medicaid cuts will leave them even more vulnerable
The Congressional Budget Office estimates that 7.8 million Americans across the U.S. will lose their coverage through Medicaid – the public program that provides health insurance to low-income families and individuals – under the multitrillion-dollar domestic policy package that President Donald Trump signed into law on July 4, 2025. That includes 247,000 to 412,000 of my fellow residents of Michigan.
Employers are failing to insure the working class - Medicaid cuts would leave them even more vulnerable
By Sumit Agarwal, Assistant Professor of Internal Medicine, University of Michigan The Congressional Budget Office estimates that 7.8 million Americans across the U.S. would lose their coverage through Medicaid – the public program that provides health insurance to low-income families and individuals – under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act making its way through Congress. That includes 248,000 to 414,000 of my fellow residents… Read complete article © The Conversation -
Employers are failing to insure the working class - Medicaid cuts would leave them even more vulnerable
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π§ We Save Links, But We Don't Save Knowledge β Why I'm Rethinking Web Reading
Every day, we scroll past dozens of articles, YouTube videos, newsletters, and GitHub repos. If we find something useful, we usually do one of two things: Bookmark it. Leave it open in a tab to "come back later". But letβs be honest β we rarely do. π The Link Is Not the Knowledge I started thinking: why do we save links in the first place?
Household Heterogeneity and the Lending Channel of Monetary Policy
Ayuda Buscar en la ayuda Buscar en la ayuda Household Heterogeneity and the Lending Channel of Monetary Policy Agarwal, Sumit [1] ; Mayordomo, Sergio [2] ; Rodríguez-Moreno, María [2] ; Tarantino, Emanuele [3] [1] NUS [2] Banco de España [3] LUISS, EIEF, CEPR, and EUROPEAN COMMISSION Localización: Documentos de trabajo - Banco de España, ISSN 0213-2710, Nº 24, 2025 Idioma: inglés Enlaces Texto completo Resumen español Este artículo analiza cómo la política monetaria influye en la oferta de...
Household Heterogeneity and the Lending Channel of Monetary Policy
Series: Working Papers. 2524. Author: Sumit Agarwal, Sergio Mayordomo, María Rodríguez-Moreno and Emanuele Tarantino. Full document Abstract This paper examines how monetary policy affects corporate lending through its impact on household balance sheets, bridging the gap between the cash flow and bank lending channels. When policy rates rise, households with variable-rate debt face higher monthly payments, prompting early mortgage repayments, particularly among high-income borrowers.
Related Exposures to Distressed Borrowers and Bank Lending
July 2020 (Revised May 2025) Sumit Agarwal, Ricardo Correa, Bernardo Morais, Jessica Roldán and Claudia Ruiz-Ortega Abstract: We study how banks’ exposure to a large set of related and suddenly-distressed borrowers impacts their commercial lending and risk taking. Using Mexican credit registry data, we examine the effect of the 2014 collapse in energy prices.
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