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Articles by Alan Auerbach
Alan Auerbach, Puma Biotechnology president and CEO, sells $364,051
Alan Auerbach, Puma Biotechnology president and CEO, sells $364,051 Alan Auerbach, Puma Biotechnology president and CEO, sells $364,051 Alan H. Auerbach, President and CEO of Puma Biotechnology, Inc. (NASDAQ:PBYI), reported a sale of company common stock on July 6, 2026. Mr. Auerbach also serves as a Director and is a ten percent owner of the company. Mr. Auerbach disposed of 44,058 shares of Puma Biotechnology common stock on July 6, 2026, at a price of $8.263 per share. This sale totaled $364,051.
La azarosa senda fiscal de Estados Unidos
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A Look Back and Ahead at the Federal Budget
After running deficits from 1970 to 1997, the US government ran a budget surplus in fiscal year 2000 for the third year in a row, reaching a post–World War II high of 2.3 percent of annual gross domestic product (GDP). The Congressional Budget Office projected that surpluses would increase over time, totaling $5.6 trillion over the next 10 years, and that all public debt would be paid off by 2006.
El peligroso camino fiscal de Estados Unidos
La economía crecía lentamente, la tasa de desempleo superaba el 5 por ciento y la Oficina de Presupuesto del Congreso pronosticaba que los déficits disminuirían en los siguientes cinco años, del 4,0 por ciento al 1,8 por ciento del PNB. Sin embargo, el presidente George H. W. Bush estaba tan preocupado por la creciente deuda nacional que negoció un acuerdo con un Congreso controlado por los demócratas para sanear las finanzas públicas.
An update on the federal budget outlook
Introduction In light of recent economic trends and the most recent Congressional Budget Office projections (CBO 2026a), we offer perspectives on the medium- and long-term fiscal outlook, updating our previous work, most recently in Auerbach and Gale (2025a, 2025b). The basic story has two components.
America’s Perilous Fiscal Path
Loading component... Loading component... Loading component... Credit: Chantal Jahchan In 1990, US public debt stood at 43 percent of gross national product (GNP). The economy was growing only slowly, the unemployment rate exceeded 5 percent, and the Congressional Budget Office forecast that deficits would fall over the following five years, from 4.0 percent to 1.8 percent of GNP.
Then and Now: A Look Back and Ahead at the Federal Budget
Skip to main content Auerbach is Professor of the Graduate School in the Department of Economics at the University of California, Berkeley and is a Research Associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research. Gale is the Arjay and Frances Fearing Miller Chair in Federal Economic Policy at the Brookings Institution. The authors thank Ian Berlin, Oliver Hall, Tayae Rogers, Imari Stewart, Sona Wyse, and Olivia Yang for research assistance.
Public Finance Implications of Economic Inequality
This paper has been prepared for the Journal of Economic Perspectives. I am grateful to the editors, Tim Taylor, Jonathan Parker, Nina Pavcnik, and Heidi Williams, and Jerry Auten, Jim Hines, Louis Kaplow, Wojciech Kopczuk, Emmanuel Saez, Joel Slemrod, David Splinter, Danny Yagan, and Gabriel Zucman for very helpful comments on an earlier draft. The author declares that he has no relevant or material financial interests that relate to the research described in this paper.
The fiscal outlook at the beginning of the new administration
Introduction In light of recent economic trends and the most recent Congressional Budget Office projections,1 we offer new estimates of the medium- and long-term fiscal outlook, updating our previous work, most recently by Auerbach and Gale.2 The basic story has two components. First, federal non-interest spending and revenues are out of balance, generating persistent primary deficits that are sizable given the near-full-employment assumptions.
Robust Fiscal Stabilization
Skip to main content This paper was presented at the Fall 2024 Brookings Papers on Economic Activity conference. We thank Aviva Aron-Dine, Olivier Blanchard, Jan Eberly, Jason Furman, Bill Gale, Marc Goldwein, Bobby Kogan, Chen Lian, Michael Linden, Greg Mankiw, Neil Mehrotra, Valerie Ramey, Jón Steinsson, Larry Summers, Heidi Williams, and other conference participants for comments on previous drafts and Tim Cejka and Sarah Robinson for outstanding research assistance.
How does Congress react to budget deficit projections?
Fiscal deficit projections are used by policymakers to understand the trajectory of U.S. debt. Between 1984 and 2003, Congress was responsive to these projections, raising taxes and cutting spending when projections showed that the deficit would grow. However, since 2004, fiscal policy has ceased being responsive to debt projections regardless of the party in power.
The federal budget outlook: Update for 2024
Introduction In light of recent economic trends and the most recent Congressional Budget Office projections (CBO 2024), we offer new perspectives on the medium- and long-term fiscal outlook, updating our previous work, most recently in Auerbach and Gale (2023a and 2023b). The basic story is familiar. Low revenues, coupled with rising outlays on health-related programs and Social Security, drive permanent, rising primary deficits as a share of the economy.
Corporate taxation and capital accumulation: Evidence from sectoral panel data for 14 OECD countries
The last three decades have seen substantial changes to corporate income taxes in many OECD countries, starting with major reforms to corporate tax rates and allowances in the UK in 1984 and in the USA in 1986. Similar rate-cutting, base-broadening reforms have followed in other countries, with the statutory corporate tax rate in the Netherlands, for example, falling from 48% in 1982 to 26% in 2007.
The federal budget outlook
In light of recent economic trends and the most recent Congressional Budget Office projections (CBO 2023), we offer new perspectives on the medium- and long-term fiscal outlook, updating our previous work, most recently in Auerbach and Gale (2022). The basic story is familiar. Low revenues coupled with rising outlays on health-related programs and Social Security drive permanent, rising primary deficits as a share of the economy.
Demand Stimulus as Social Policy
We thank Megan Juelfs at the UVA Darden Institute for Business and Society and Jack Mannion for stellar research assistance and participants in the 2022 NBER Summer Institute for comments on a previous draft The views expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Bureau of Economic Research.
The COVID Pandemic and the Federal Budget
The COVID-19 pandemic and the associated policy responses generated large federal budget deficits in recent years. The good news is that these factors are expected to have mainly short-term effects on the federal budget.
What Covid-19 teaches us about fiscal multipliers
Alan Auerbach, Yuriy Gorodnichenko, Peter B. McCrory, Daniel Murphy 23 December 2021 The Covid-19 pandemic prompted an unprecedented fiscal stimulus by many governments to counter the economic recession. This column uses high-frequency data on government spending, lockdown restrictions, and economic indicators in the US to assess the effectiveness of fiscal policy. It shows that government spending increased employment, but only in cities not subject to strict stay-at-home restrictions.
Low interest rates have implications for tax policy
As of this morning, yields on 10-year Treasury bonds stood at 1.33 percent. The yield on TIPS bonds—which are adjusted for inflation—was negative. These astonishingly low returns, occurring even in the presence of a growing economy and rising inflation fears, are not new. Interest rates on government debt have been falling in many countries for the last several decades, with markets indicating that rates may stay low well into the future.
Low Interest Rates Have Implications for Tax Policy
As of this morning, yields on 10-year Treasury bonds stood at 1.33 percent. The yield on TIPS bonds–which are adjusted for inflation–was negative. These astonishingly low returns, occurring even in the presence of a growing economy and rising inflation fears, are not new. Interest rates on government debt have been falling in many countries for the last several decades, with markets indicating that rates may stay low well into the future.
A commonsense corporate tax
BERKELEY — As part of its massive infrastructure plan, President Joe Biden’s administration is seeking to raise the US corporate tax rate from 21 per cent to 28 per cent, with a 21 per cent “minimum” tax on profits earned abroad by US corporations. In the words of Secretary of the Treasury Janet Yellen, the goal is to arrest an international “race to the bottom” by getting other countries to adopt similar minimum corporate taxes.
OPINIONISTA: Biden’s infrastructure plan: Realities of the modern economy call for a commonsense corporate tax
As part of its massive infrastructure plan, President Joe Biden’s administration is seeking to raise the US corporate tax rate from 21% to 28%, with a 21% ‘minimum’ tax on profits earned abroad by US corporations. In the words of Secretary of the Treasury Janet Yellen, the goal is to arrest an international ‘race to the bottom’ by getting other countries to adopt similar minimum corporate taxes.
A Commonsense Corporate Tax | by Alan J. Auerbach - Project Syndicate
In its efforts to generate more revenue to fund a massive infrastructure spending package, US President Joe Biden's administration is seeking to add more red tape to a corporate tax regime that already has too much of it. Fortunately, there is a perfectly sensible alternative. BERKELEY – As part of its massive infrastructure plan, President Joe Biden’s administration is seeking to raise the US corporate tax rate from 21% to 28%, with a 21% “minimum” tax on profits earned abroad by US corporations.
Fiscal effects of COVID-19
The federal deficit temporarily ballooned in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, but remarkably low interest rates, expected to continue for much of the coming decade, mean the long-term budget outlook is only moderately worse now, finds a paper to be discussed at the Brookings Papers on Economic Activity (BPEA) conference on September 24.
Macroeconomic frameworks
Alan Auerbach, Yuriy Gorodnichenko, Daniel Murphy 18 December 2019 Despite decades of research, there still is no consensus over whether neoclassical, New Keynesian, or other frameworks accurately capture the underlying sources and mechanisms of economic fluctuations. The column uses new empirical data on demand shocks to evaluate the predictions of these models for labour share, labour wedge, wage and price response, and multipliers.
Revisiting the budget outlook: An update after the Bipartisan Budget Act of 2019
The Congressional Budget Office’s (CBO’s) latest federal budget projections (CBO 2019b), released in August, contain two major changes from their previous projections, which were issued in May (CBO 2019a).
Local fiscal multipliers and spillovers in the US
Alan Auerbach, Yuriy Gorodnichenko, Daniel Murphy 04 April 2019 The strength of fiscal multipliers and spillovers have been the subject of intense debate in recent years.Using data on US Department of Defense contracts and income and employment outcomes, this column finds evidence of strong positive spillovers across locations and industries, although the geographical spillovers appear to dissipate fairly quickly with distance.
Once more unto the breach: The deteriorating fiscal outlook
After worsening sharply during the Great Recession, the long-term fiscal outlook generally improved through 2015, due to a combination of legislative acts and lower projected growth of health care spending. The same factors and the slow but steady economic recovery helped reduce short-term deficits over that period as well. Over the past year, though, the medium- and long-term fiscal outlooks have deteriorated.
The Deteriorating Fiscal Outlook" by Alan J. Auerbach
Article Once More unto the Breach: The Deteriorating Fiscal Outlook Tax Notes (2016) Alan J. Auerbach William G. Gale, Brookings Institution
If Not Now, When? New Estimates of the Federal Budget Outlook
The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) recently released their new budget and economic outlook, projecting a debt-to-GDP ratio of 93 percent by 2029 under current law, up from 78 percent today. In “If Not Now, When? New Estimates of the Federal Budget Outlook” (PDF), Alan Auerbach, William Gale, and Aaron Krupkin, provide alternative estimates that build on that analysis.
The federal budget outlook: We are not winning
In “The federal budget outlook: We are not winning” (PDF), Alan Auerbach, William Gale, and Aaron Krupkin look at the U.S. fiscal situation. They find that, on balance, the medium-term (10-year) outlook has worsened over the past year. The 2017 tax cut, the 2018 spending deals, and anticipated higher interest rates raise projected deficits and debt, while expectations of a stronger economy and lower healthcare spending work in the opposite direction.
The federal budget outlook: Even crazier after all these years
On balance, the medium-term (10-year) outlook has worsened over the past year. The 2017 tax cut, the 2018 spending deals, and higher projected interest rates raise projected deficits and debt, while expectations of a stronger economy (in large part attributable to the fiscal stimulus from policy changes) and lower health care spending work in the opposite direction.
The Federal Budget Outlook: Even Crazier After All These Years
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The Federal Budget Outlook: Even Crazier After All These Years
We examine the budget outlook, given new Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projections that reflect the recently enacted tax bill and spending deals. The prospect of routine trillion-dollar deficits has dominated public response to CBO's report, but the underlying problem is even more serious.
5 questions Congress should answer about tax reform plans
Congressional leaders say they're working on a corporate tax reform that will boost the U.S. economy. Yet -- as happened with efforts to dismantle Obamacare -- they're keeping their plans under wraps until the last moment, with rumors and leaks serving as the main form of advance discussion. It's thus crucial to have a framework, so we can quickly assess any proposals that emerge.Here are five important questions:1.
Five Questions for Congress on U.S. Tax Reform
By Alan Auerbach (Bloomberg View) --Congressional leaders say they’re working on a corporate tax reform that will boost the U.S. economy. Yet -- as happened with efforts to dismantle Obamacare -- they’re keeping their plans under wraps until the last moment, with rumors and leaks serving as the main form of advance discussion. It’s thus crucial to have a framework, so we can quickly assess any proposals that emerge. Here are five important questions: 1.
5 questions for Congress on tax reform
Congressional leaders say they're working on a corporate tax reform that will boost the U.S. economy. Yet -- as happened with efforts to dismantle Obamacare -- they're keeping their plans under wraps until the last moment, with rumors and leaks serving as the main form of advance discussion. It's thus crucial to have a framework, so we can quickly assess any proposals that emerge. Here are five important questions: 1. Does the plan have temporary provisions, and how are they justified?
Five Questions for Congress on Tax Reform
Transitional provisions are a natural part of easing the path to a new tax system. But other temporary measures have a different purpose: hiding their true cost. The "big six" proposal, released last month by congressional Republicans and White House officials, would allow companies to fully deduct short-lived capital investment, such as equipment and machinery, “for at least five years.” Why five years?
Five Questions for Congress on Tax Reform
Congressional leaders say they’re working on a corporate tax reform that will boost the U.S. economy.
Understanding the destination-based approach to business taxation
The rising importance of multinational companies and the changing nature of production represents a challenge to the traditional ways that countries try to tax corporate profits. This column examines one potential policy response – a destination-based cash-flow tax – which it argues would confront the key international problems of existing tax systems. It also addresses some of the concerns arising in particular from US proposals to introduce such a tax.
Rethinking Macroeconomic Policy
The Peterson Institute will hold a conference on "Rethinking Macroeconomic Policy," coordinated by Olivier Blanchard, PIIE C. Fred Bergsten Senior Fellow, and Lawrence H. Summers, member of the Institute’s Executive Committee of the Board, on October 12–13, 2017. The conference is the fourth in a series Blanchard began at the International Monetary Fund.
Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Fall 2017 Edition
Bank capital requirements shouldn’t be lowered, but post-crisis rules should be simplified to ensure all banks are subjected to a single constraint dictating minimum requirements, according to a new financial regulatory framework outlined in “Strengthening and Streamlining Bank Capital Regulation” (PDF) by Harvard’s Robin Greenwood, Samuel G. Hanson, Jeremy C. Stein, and Adi Sunderam. Stein was a member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System from May 2012 to May 2014.
A symposium on business tax reform
Editor's Note: This paper is part of the Fall 2017 edition of the Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, the leading conference series and journal in economics for timely, cutting-edge research about real-world policy issues. Research findings are presented in a clear and accessible style to maximize their impact on economic understanding and policymaking.
The Fiscal Outlook in a Period of Policy Uncertainty
While policy makers and news headlines focus on debates about health care and tax policy, the U.S. fiscal outlook remains troubling and is a constraint against which new proposals should be judged. Budget deficits appear manageable in the short run, but the nation’s debt-GDP ratio is already high relative to historical norms, and even under optimistic assumptions, both measures will rise in the future.
The fiscal outlook in a period of policy uncertainty
While policy makers and news headlines focus on debates about health care and tax policy, the U.S. fiscal outlook remains troubling and is a constraint against which new proposals should be judged. Using new projections from the Social Security and Medicare Boards of Trustees and the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), we show that while deficits are manageable in the short run, the debt-GDP ratio is already high relative to historical norms.
Does the Budget Surplus Justify a Large-Scale Tax Cut? | Brookings Institution
Recent CBO estimates project large surpluses over the next 10 years in both the on- and off-budget portions of the federal budget. Although there is general agreement that the $1.8 trillion in accruing balances in the social security trust funds should be allocated to shoring up social security, there is significant disagreement about how to allocate the other $800 billion in surpluses, with the main candidates being debt reduction, government spending, and tax cuts.
Opinion | The Case for a Border-Adjusted Tax (Published 2017)
Op-Ed Contributors By Alan Auerbach and Michael Devereux March 6, 2017 The American corporate tax system is broken. Faced with one of the highest tax rates in the world, many multinational corporations in the United States move their operations and reported profits offshore or undertake “inversions” to relinquish their American tax nationality. Elaborate regulatory and enforcement measures have been unable to stop this. Vilifying companies for their behavior hasn’t worked, either.
The fiscal outlook at the beginning of the Trump administration | Brookings Institution
I. Introduction The recent release of new budget data by the Congressional Budget Office (2017) provides an opportunity to update and reassess the fiscal outlook. As it turns out, the fiscal outlook remains largely unchanged from the projections based on CBO’s (2016a) previous release of budget data in August, 2016. But no news is not always good news.
Millennials could end up the biggest losers of Trump’s fiscal policies | Brookings Institution
There is, for good reason, a lot of attention on the size and shape of tax cuts that the Trump administration and Republicans in Congress will pursue this year. But those tax cuts threaten to exacerbate a pre-existing condition: The impact of on the federal budget of the retirement of the baby boomers, the generation born between 1946 and 1964. For many years, economists have been warning about the impact on the federal budget of the coming retirement of the baby boomers.
Duterte, democracy, and defense | Brookings Institution
Under recent President Benigno Aquino the Philippines had the highest economic growth rates in its modern history and among the highest in fast-growing Southeast Asia. He launched a sincere campaign against corruption, and that campaign’s relative success contributed to growth. Under threat from China in the South China Sea, the Philippines grew closer and closer to the United States and granted the U.S. military increasing access.
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