1 Introduction Forest disturbances, such as pests, drought and fires affect the composition and function of forests (Canelles et al., 2021; Hammond et al., 2022; Roces-Díaz et al., 2022). Predicting resilience, the ability for tree populations to absorb and respond to such disturbances (Holling, 1973; Pimm, 1984), however, is challenging.