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Articles by Michael Young
Hezbollah Is Betting Its Future On Iran as Lebanon Becomes a Proxy Battlefield
Last week, Hezbollah secretary general Naim Qassem issued a statement in which he said his group would not disarm while Israel pursued its occupation of Lebanon and its attacks. He also described the Lebanese-Israeli framework agreement of last June as “devoid of legitimacy”, adding that it was the memorandum of understanding agreed by the US and Iran, also signed in June, that represented a source of strength for Lebanon.
Hezbollah is betting its future on Iran as Lebanon becomes a proxy battlefield
Last week, Hezbollah secretary general Naim Qassem issued a statement in which he said his group would not disarm while Israel pursued its occupation of Lebanon and its attacks. He also described the Lebanese-Israeli framework agreement of last June as “devoid of legitimacy”, adding that it was the memorandum of understanding agreed by the US and Iran, also signed in June, that represented a source of strength for Lebanon.
Are Israel’s Lebanon talks a path to peace, or a pretext for continued occupation?
This week, Lebanese and Israeli military representatives are meeting in Tampa, Florida, to discuss implementation of the so-called “pilot zones” plan to advance the Lebanese army’s disarmament of Hezbollah. It’s improbable that there will be any breakthroughs, but more significantly, it’s unlikely Israel actually seeks one.
Marco Rubio Misses the Point in Athens
Something immediately jolts you. Is it the eyes that are misaligned, or the left ear whose elephantine proportions suggest a boxing injury? Was the image generated by an artificial intelligence, or did the Department of State, dispenser of frugal brown bag lunches intercontinentally, really contract with an artist to sketch America’s 72nd secretary of state with the Parthenon in the background, hoping to lend Marco Rubio Periclean gravitas?
Trump’s anti-Muslim immigration policies weaken America’s Middle East bargain
On September 30, the official White House rapid response account on X reproduced research from the libertarian Cato Institute showing that legal immigration from majority-Muslim nations was cut by 96 per cent after US President Donald Trump took office. Nineteen of the countries included Arab countries, countries in the broader Middle East and North Africa, and Arab League member states in East Africa, such as Somalia, Sudan and Djibouti.
Lebanon’s Joseph Aoun is learning the limits of US influence over Israel
When Lebanese President Joseph Aoun visited the White House in July, he told US President Donald Trump of the “urgent need for a complete Israeli withdrawal from Lebanese territory”, describing it as “an essential step to consolidate stability and enable the Lebanese state to extend its full sovereignty exclusively through its own forces”.
Hezbollah’s Surrender of Ali Al Taher Has Cost It Legitimacy in Lebanon
On September 4, Israel announced that it had gained effective control of Ali Al Taher ridge, which overlooks the southern Lebanese town of Nabatiyeh. This came as a surprise, since many observers had expected a major battle for control of the heights, which housed an extensive tunnel network and allegedly an operational command centre for Hezbollah.
Hezbollah’s surrender of Ali Al Taher has cost it legitimacy in Lebanon
On September 4, Israel announced that it had gained effective control of Ali Al Taher ridge, which overlooks the southern Lebanese town of Nabatiyeh. This came as a surprise, since many observers had expected a major battle for control of the heights, which housed an extensive tunnel network and allegedly an operational command centre for Hezbollah.
Lebanon Must Get Ready as Israel and Turkey Battle for Influence in the Levant
Last week, Israeli aircraft bombed the Abu Al Duhur air base in Syria. The Israelis initially failed to admit responsibility for the attack, but to a number of observers it was very reminiscent of the attacks in April last year against the Hama and T4 air bases. At the time, these were interpreted as an Israeli effort to prevent the Turkish military from using the bases, amid the rising regional rivalry between Israel and Turkey.
Lebanon must get ready as Israel and Turkey battle for influence in the Levant
Last week, Israeli aircraft bombed the Abu Al Duhur air base in Syria. The Israelis initially failed to admit responsibility for the attack, but to a number of observers it was very reminiscent of the attacks in April last year against the Hama and T4 air bases. At the time, these were interpreted as an Israeli effort to prevent the Turkish military from using the bases, amid the rising regional rivalry between Israel and Turkey.
Lebanon's Outreach to the Region Shows It Isn't Putting All Its Eggs in the U.S. Basket
Lebanese President Joseph Aoun was recently welcomed by US President Donald Trump in Washington, in what was interpreted as an effort by Mr Aoun to seek US backing in Lebanon’s negotiations with Israel. Upon his return to Beirut, he travelled to Turkey, amid reports he would soon visit Saudi Arabia. In other words, Mr Aoun appeared to be diversifying his regional contacts, at a time when his critics had warned him to not put all his eggs in the Trump administration basket.
Lebanon's outreach to the region shows it isn't putting all its eggs in the US basket
Lebanese President Joseph Aoun was recently welcomed by US President Donald Trump in Washington, in what was interpreted as an effort by Mr Aoun to seek US backing in Lebanon’s negotiations with Israel. Upon his return to Beirut, the President travelled to Turkey, amid reports he would soon visit Saudi Arabia. In other words, Mr Aoun appeared to be diversifying his regional contacts, at a time when his critics had warned him to not put all his eggs in the Trump administration basket.
Why Lebanon cannot disarm Hezbollah without Nabih Berri
In his meeting last week with President Donald Trump, Lebanese President Joseph Aoun went out of his way to defend Lebanon’s speaker of parliament, Nabih Berri. Mr Aoun underlined that “Berri is a man of state” from southern Lebanon, and he understood the magnitude of the destruction there. He wanted an end to the war, Mr Aoun continued, but acknowledged the “sensitivity of his position and ties to Hezbollah”.
Lebanon has no option but to make the ‘pilot zones’ deal with Israel fly
Last week, Lebanese and Israeli representatives met in Rome to discuss implementation of an important dimension of their recent agreement signed in Washington. The sides examined so-called pilot zones – areas in which the Lebanese army would be posted after an Israeli withdrawal. For now, they remain apart, but Lebanese President Joseph Aoun is scheduled to meet US President Donald Trump at the White House later today, and the Lebanese hope US pressure can increase Israeli flexibility.
How a Saudi-led Regional Coalition Can Help to Solve Lebanon's Hezbollah Problem
Last Wednesday, a day before the arrival in Beirut of a Saudi envoy, Yazid bin Farhan, Saudi Arabia announced it would lift all restrictions on Lebanese exports to the kingdom. The move was widely interpreted as Riyadh’s support for the Lebanese state, in particular President Joseph Aoun and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam.
How a Saudi-led regional coalition can help to solve Lebanon's Hezbollah problem
Last Wednesday, a day before the arrival in Beirut of a Saudi envoy, Yazid bin Farhan, Saudi Arabia announced it would lift all restrictions on Lebanese exports to the kingdom. The move was widely interpreted as Riyadh’s support for the Lebanese state, in particular President Joseph Aoun and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam.
Lebanon needs to get over its America Derangement Syndrome
Two events recently illustrated the contrasting ways the US is perceived in the Middle East. One suggests we are moving away from the time when the Americans were all-powerful in the region, while the other reflects an enduring belief in US paramountcy. Neither is absolutely correct, nor incorrect, but their interaction suggests that American dominance in the region is entering a new phase.
Lebanon needs to table a serious proposal to deal with Hezbollah – before the US and Israel do
On May 14 and 15, Lebanon and Israel held the third round of direct negotiations in Washington, the first at the level of delegations, after two meetings between the country’s ambassadors. There is a large gap between the two sides, but there was a success when they agreed to extend their so-called ceasefire by 45 days. Following the discussions, the US Department of State issued a statement announcing that the delegations had agreed to a framework for negotiations.
Before talking to Israel, Lebanon's leaders need to get on the same page
On April 24, the Lebanese and Israeli ambassadors in Washington met in the Oval Office in the presence of US President Donald Trump. This was their second meeting, and Mr Trump’s interest perhaps indicated he saw an advantage in pushing for negotiations that drew attention away from his much-criticised war with Iran.
Despite US pressure, the Lebanon-Israel talks process should not be rushed
The 10-day cessation of hostilities between Lebanon and Israel last week was welcomed by many people, not least by a Lebanese population, particularly a Shiite population, that had sustained weeks of withering bombardment by Israel. However, whether it can be extended and bring a measure of peace to Lebanon is uncertain.
A new Lebanese civil war is unlikely, despite how things may look now
Despite the two-week cease-fire announced in the war against Iran, there remains little clarity over whether Lebanon is part of the arrangement. While Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sherif tweeted that the cease-fire includes Lebanon, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said it does not. However, whether the conflict in Lebanon continues or is brought to an end, there is a narrative taking shape that the country may be on the cusp of a new civil war.
War and Statehood in Lebanon: A Fragile Balance
While global attention is focused on the conflict between the United States and Israel on one side, and Iran on the other, Lebanon is caught up in what is a foundational moment for the country’s future. The outcome of the current war between Israel and Hezbollah will determine if Lebanon, and more particularly the Lebanese state, can assert its authority on matters relating to war and peace, or whether Hezbollah will survive as a military force and try to reimpose itself domestically.
There's only so much Lebanon's army can do against Hezbollah - it needs to make every move count
On March 2, Hezbollah fired rockets at Israel – though the decision for it to do so was almost certainly made by Iran – carrying Lebanon into a new war with Israeli forces. On the same day, Lebanon's government declared Hezbollah's military and security activities illegal. Shortly thereafter, army commander General Rodolphe Haykal made it clear to Prime Minister Nawaf Salam that the military did not have the means to implement the government's decision.
What is Israel's mission in the south of Lebanon – and will it succeed?
Last week, the Israelis took measures in Lebanon that showed the possible direction of their objectives in the country. They ordered all inhabitants of southern Lebanon, south of the Litani River, to leave and move northwards. And on Thursday, residents were forced to flee Beirut’s southern suburbs, Hezbollah’s stronghold in the capital. These dramatic developments are reminiscent of what the Israelis did in Gaza.
Few in Lebanon will regret Hezbollah's demise after being dragged into another war with Israel
In the first 24 hours after Hezbollah launched rockets against northern Israel, involving Lebanon in an unnecessary war, the group’s decision provoked widespread condemnation throughout the country. Even many people within Hezbollah or among its base of supporters found it incomprehensible that the group would enter a conflict for which it was wholly unprepared.
Hezbollah's strikes on Israel have ensured that few in Lebanon will regret the Iranian proxy's demise
In the first 24 hours after Hezbollah launched rockets against northern Israel, involving Lebanon in an unnecessary war, the group’s decision provoked widespread condemnation throughout the country. Even many people within Hezbollah or among its base of supporters found it incomprehensible that the group would enter a conflict for which it was wholly unprepared.
Hezbollah's refusal to disarm would be a strategic blunder
Early last week, Hezbollah’s secretary general, Naim Qassem, made a staggering statement in a speech during a commemoration for assassinated party officials. He called on the Lebanese government to withdraw its decision to secure a monopoly over weapons, saying this only served Israel’s interests. Last July, the government decreed that the Lebanese state would implement such a monopoly throughout the country, and asked the army to prepare a plan for this end.
By forcing normalisation on Beirut, Israel could turn Lebanon into another Ukraine
The ceasefire that ended the Hezbollah-Israel conflict in November 2024 gave new life to what is known as the Mechanism, expanding it to a five-party military committee to discuss implementation of the ceasefire agreement. The body includes the US, as chair, Lebanon, Israel, France and the UN. There are signs today, however, that the US and Israel are seeking to drop the Mechanism, or replace it with a three-party format from which France and the UN would be excluded.
Why Arab states are so good at withstanding pressure to break up
One of the paradoxes of states in the Middle East is that the mythology of Arab nationalism once described their borders as unnatural impositions by western imperialistic powers, yet rarely have borders been as enduring, or have states once deemed to be artificial creations remained as geographically unified, even amid war. The region is replete with examples of countries that could have shattered in times of conflict but didn’t.
In Lebanon, the US has been reduced to playing good cop to Israel's bad cop
An intriguing news story appeared on January 7 in Lebanese newspapers. It claimed that the US envoy to Lebanon, Morgan Ortagus, had expressed her reluctance to attend a session that day of the so-called Mechanism, the five-party committee to discuss implementation of the ceasefire agreement reached between Lebanon and Israel in 2024, because she saw them as “repetitive and where no major progress is being made”.
This year so much changed in Lebanon - and yet so much more stayed the same
As Lebanon enters the new year, developments in the country have a familiar ring to them. Often, Lebanon appears to enter a new phase of its political development, provoking widespread optimism about its future, only to see traditional power structures re-assert themselves and thwart real change. A year ago, there was hope that Hezbollah’s defeat in the war with Israel, followed by the downfall of Syria’s Assad regime, would break the stranglehold of Iran and its allies over the country.
Beirut is in no state to advance Washington's project to normalise Lebanon-Israel relations
Earlier this month, Lebanese President Joseph Aoun, in consultation with the Speaker of Parliament and Prime Minister, appointed Simon Karam as head of the Lebanese delegation participating in the so-called Mechanism, the five-party committee that was expanded to monitor and discuss implementation of the ceasefire agreement reached between Israel and Lebanon last year.
Beyond Pope Leo's visit, what can restore the Lebanese Christians' faith in their country?
Pope Leo XIV visited Lebanon this week, the third visit by a supreme pontiff to the country since John Paul II in 1997 and Benedict in 2012 (Pope Paul VI stopped very briefly in 1964, on his way to India). The fact that Lebanon is the site of the Pope’s first foreign visit (with Turkey) is significant. The country holds the highest percentage of Christians in the Arab world. It is reasonable that Pope Leo saw a need to provide support for a Lebanese-Christian community whose numbers are dwindling.
External powers need to do more to insulate Lebanon from regional tensions
After Syrian President Ahmad Al Shara's successful recent visit to Washington, many Lebanese wondered what it meant for their country. They may have recalled what the US envoy Tom Barrack said last July, speaking of the Lebanese: "I honestly think that they are going to say 'the world will pass us by'. Why?
Infrastructure in the sky: Why Australia's growth depends on getting airspace right
Rob Sharp, Airservices Australia CEO Australia is preparing for a 25-30% surge in air traffic over the next decade with billions of dollars pouring into airports, aircraft, drones and improved aviation services. But there’s a bottleneck that could undermine this nation-shaping investment – the largely invisible infrastructure of the sky.
The US may not be the only path for Lebanon to disarm Hezbollah
Both in public and private, Lebanese officials are expressing frustration with the US team currently dealing with Lebanon. "They have no experience or institutional memory," one senior minister recently told me. Since the Biden administration imposed a ceasefire in the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah last year, the situation has settled into a status quo, in which diplomacy has stagnated.
How to disarm Hezbollah using a handy political lever
Recently, during the session of a Lebanese parliamentary committee on a new election law, two of the country's Shiite parliamentarians, one from Hezbollah and the second from the Amal Movement, floated an idea the government in Beirut should examine closely.
The US and Israel's maximalist position on disarming Hezbollah could lead Lebanon down a dangerous path
Last Friday, the Lebanese army presented a plan to the government of Prime Minister Nawaf Salam to implement the government's decision taken a month earlier to secure a monopoly over weapons. This policy priority has been opposed by Hezbollah. While the plan hasn't been made public, it avoided setting a timetable for disarmament in order to avoid a confrontation with Hezbollah. Instead, it reportedly has been subdivided into phases.
The damage Israel can inflict if Hezbollah doesn't disarm
The Lebanese government's decision last Thursday to endorse the objectives of a US-drafted plan provoked a negative response from Hezbollah and, to an extent, its ally within the Shiite community, the Amal Movement. However, the two parties, realising the risk of isolating themselves further, did not withdraw their ministers from the government of Prime Minister Nawaf Salam.
Entwaffnung der Hisbollah: Welche Rolle spielt der Iran?
Die Entscheidung der libanesischen Regierung vom 6. August, die Hisbollah-Miliz zu entwaffnen, markiert zwar einen wichtigen Meilenstein, bleibt jedoch unvollständig. Denn ein wesentlicher Aspekt wurde in den öffentlichen Stellungnahmen weitgehend übersehen: Heute werden die Waffen der Hisbollah faktisch vom Iran kontrolliert.
Entwaffnung der Hisbollah: Welche Rolle spielt der Iran?
Die Entscheidung der libanesischen Regierung vom 6. August, die Hisbollah-Miliz zu entwaffnen, markiert zwar einen wichtigen Meilenstein, bleibt jedoch unvollständig. Denn ein wesentlicher Aspekt wurde in den öffentlichen Stellungnahmen weitgehend übersehen: Heute werden die Waffen der Hisbollah faktisch vom Iran kontrolliert.
Can Lebanon's new government finally achieve justice for Beirut blast victims?
August 4 will mark the fifth anniversary of the Beirut port explosion that killed more than 200 people, one of the largest non-nuclear explosions ever. The families of the victims are still awaiting justice. Earlier this year the magistrate investigating the tragedy, Tariq Bitar, resumed his investigation, which had been suspended after politicians repeatedly intervened to derail it.
Beirut and Damascus need to mend relations after the Sweida clashes
The recent comments to this newspaper by the US ambassador to Turkey, special envoy to Syria, and interim envoy to Lebanon, Tom Barrack, about Lebanon's relations with Syria, worried Lebanese officials. It also underlined why they must normalise relations with Damascus, but also why Syria must work towards the same end. Speaking about the lack of progress in Lebanon, Mr Barrack said: "I honestly think that they [the Lebanese] are going to say 'the world will pass us by'. Why?
Despite US pressure on Lebanon to disarm Hezbollah, Tehran alone has the leverage to make it happen
The US ambassador to Turkey and envoy to Syria, Tom Barrack, returned to Beirut on Monday to hear what the Lebanese had to say about a proposal he had presented two weeks ago. Not long after his arrival, he declared he was "satisfied and grateful for the Lebanese response ... We are developing a plan to move forward, and I feel very hopeful". Mr Barrack has taken over the Lebanon file momentarily following the departure of the previous envoy Morgan Ortagus.
The UN peacekeeping force in Lebanon needs retooling - not discarding
The fate of Unifil, the UN interim force in Lebanon, whose renewal is scheduled in August, may be hanging by a thread. According to the Hebrew version of the Israeli daily Israel Hayom on June 8, the US and Israel have agreed to end the force's operations, with Washington having a major say in the matter as it funds around a quarter of its budget. The final outcome remains unclear, however, and the Lebanese authorities remain optimistic that Unifil's mandate will be renewed.
Back to square one: Lebanon's local elections have taken the country in the wrong direction
Lebanon recently finished the last round of its municipal elections, and the message was not reassuring. Lists backed by the country’s sectarian political parties were largely victorious. This anticipates a period of continued polarisation at a time when Lebanon needs to be unified around a project to benefit from the changing dynamics in the Middle East.
The US needs to stop undermining Lebanon's credibility
Lebanon's President Joseph Aoun (centre) with outgoing US chairman of ceasefire monitoring committee MG Jasper Jeffers (left) and his successor, Michael Leeney, at the presidential palace in Baabda, east of Beirut, on April 30. AFP
It would take a lot more than sheer force to disarm Hezbollah
The US has called on Lebanon's new government to disarm the Hezbollah militant group. AP
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