Guy Berger
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Articles by Guy Berger
Información de calidad, un bien público en peligro
El concepto “integridad de la información” suscita gran interés, y con razón. Este concepto surgió con el movimiento mundial a favor de un entorno informativo de calidad en 1991. Todo comenzó en una reunión de la UNESCO en la que participaron periodistas africanos en la recién independizada Namibia.
Who’s Learning AI, Who Isn’t, and What That Means for Workforce Strategy
As a labor economist, I spend a lot of time staring at data. Unemployment claims, job postings, quit rates. But there’s a quieter data stream I also think is very important: who’s learning what, and how fast. I think of learning as change in motion. When workers enroll in a specific education discipline at scale, they’re telling you something about where the workforce is headed. Think: who’s preparing, who’s responding, and who is at risk of falling behind.
Recap of JOLTS (April) and QCEW (Q4 2025)
TL;DR: This morning’s BLS data drop was a mixed bag. The JOLTS data was disappointing, with declines in hiring and quits. But the QCEW data is suggestive of something we haven’t seen in a long time: positive future revisions to employment growth. This post covers: JOLTS Big Picture JOLTS Data Roundup QCEW & Future Revisions More below chart. Yesterday I predicted we’d see a slight thawing in the frozen labor market.
High Frequency Labor Market Indicators (4/30)
TL;DR: This week’s data releases collectively show a warming labor market, but drag from higher energy prices is coming down the road. This post covers: Recent and Upcoming Publications What’s Next An Update on Gas Prices The Fed Meeting Claims for Unemployment Insurance Indeed Job Postings ADP Employment Growth Employment Cost Index (ECI) What I’m Reading More below chart. Last week I wrote a recap of recently released AI adoption data from the Census Bureau’s Business Trends and Outlook Survey.
A Quick Post on the Sahm Rule
TL;DR: Folks should be cautious about casually applying the Sahm Rule to recession prediction; the 2020s have broken a lot of other macro rules of thumbs. A specter is haunting labor market wonkery… the spectre of the Sahm Rule. The unemployment rate rose by 0.45 basis points from June to November.
High Frequency Labor Market Indicators (11/07)
TL;DR: Evidence at hand shows a labor market that cooled slowly in October, with only limited evidence of a change in trend. • An Update on the Shutdown • Why I’m Only a Little Worried About Hiring (11/03) We had a lot of data over the past 2 weeks, but it’s going to be quieter (which is ironic since I suspect that if the shutdown doesn’t end soon, the labor market may turn more “interesting”).
High Frequency Labor Market Indicators (9/18)
TL;DR: Fraudulent claims in Texas caused a spike in initial claims that completely reversed this week; CPS labor market flows are oddly upbeat. This update includes: What’s Coming Up Claims for Unemployment Insurance CPS Labor Market Flows Reading List More below chart. The most significant forthcoming events are the August JOLTS release (September 30th) and the September jobs report (October 3rd).
Preview of the 2025 Preliminary Benchmark Estimate
TL;DR: On September 9th at 10 AM ET, we’ll get “old news” about the state of the labor market with a preliminary estimate of revisions to nonfarm payroll employment growth from March 2024 through March 2025. The revisions are likely to be large and negative. A table of contents for this post: What is a benchmark revision? What to expect? Industry implications Why did the BLS overestimate? “Old News” What won’t change? What might change?
What the Job Market Is Really Telling Us: It’s Not Just the Tech. It’s the Cycle.
The headlines are dominated by doom and gloom about the challenging environment for recent college graduates, with artificial intelligence being pinpointed as the culprit. The truth is more complex—and more familiar. Young workers are in fact facing a challenging market and AI, or at least speculation over how AI may impact the workforce, is a part of the puzzle. It is easy to blame AI for today’s job market pain. But that story is incomplete—and risks creating an overly specific set of solutions.
The next chapter for fact-checking: information integrity
Alarm about disinformation and misinformation surged around the world after 2016. The moment seemed dramatic. Countries experienced unanticipated election outcomes after false news reports surged on social media.
Opinion | The next chapter for fact-checking: information integrity - Editor and Publisher
Posted Thursday, December 5, 2024 10:50 am Alarm about disinformation and misinformation surged around the world after 2016. The moment seemed dramatic. Countries experienced unanticipated election outcomes after false news reports surged on social media.
Radio in South Africa marks 100 years of shaping identity and resistance
In the 1960s, when I was a child growing up in Joburg, the apartheid government used radio for racism. There was no television, let alone internet, back in those days. Only state-owned and controlled radio. Still, that was a strong tool to build up white identity and beat down black identity.
Preview of the 2024 Preliminary Benchmark Estimate
TL;DR: On August 21st, we’ll get “old news” about the state of the labor market with a preliminary estimate of revisions to nonfarm payroll employment growth from March 2023 through March 2024. The revisions are likely to shift growth over that period from “strong” to “solid”. A table of contents on this piece What is a benchmark revision? What to expect? “Old News” What won’t change? What might change?
BLS Jobs Report Preview (May)
TL;DR: Forecasters expect another month of solid job gains in May, but without an improvement in unemployment. In the rest of this preview, I cover: The Big Picture Point: The Cooling Is Over Counterpoint: Gradual, Non-Recessionary Cooling Is Ongoing Recent QCEW Data and Future Revisions More below chart. For as long as I’ve been writing these BLS previews on substack, my recurring question has been: Is gradual labor market cooling ongoing, or is it in the rear view mirror?
Social media firms stonewall efforts to monitor SA poll disinformation
Momentum is mounting because it’s becoming increasingly evident that data is power. And access to it is the key – for a host of reasons, not least transparency, human rights and electoral integrity. But there’s a massive international asymmetry in access to data. In the European Union and the US, some progress has been made. For example, EU researchers studying risks have a legal right of access. In the US, too, some companies have taken voluntary steps to improve access.
Hate speech and disinformation in South Africa’s elections
There’s a growing global movement to ensure that researchers can get access to the huge quantity of data assembled and exploited by digital operators. Momentum is mounting because it’s becoming increasingly evident that data is power. And access to it is the key – for a host of reasons, not least transparency, human rights and electoral integrity. But there’s currently a massive international asymmetry in access to data. In the European Union and the US, some progress has been made.
South African election: why data hoarding by big tech companies is bad for voters
South Africans, prone to being a rambunctious lot, head to the polls tomorrow in what’s expected to be the most closely contested election since 1994. They will do so with less protection from disinformation and hate speech than voters in the US and the European Union because, as Guy Berger points out, social media companies still hold tight control over access to data in the global south.
Hate speech and disinformation in South Africa’s elections: big tech make it tough to monitor social media
28 May 2024 - 21:33 Just R20 for the first month. Support independent journalism by subscribing to our digital news package. Several groups working with data are attempting to monitor hate speech and disinformation on social media ahead of South Africa’s national and provincial polls. There’s a growing global movement to ensure that researchers can get access to the huge quantity of data assembled and exploited by digital operators.
Hate speech and disinformation in South Africa’s elections: big tech make it tough to monitor social media
There’s a growing global movement to ensure that researchers can get access to the huge quantity of data assembled and exploited by digital operators. Momentum is mounting because it’s becoming increasingly evident that data is power. And access to it is the key – for a host of reasons, not least transparency, human rights and electoral integrity. But there’s currently a massive international asymmetry in access to data. In the European Union and the US, some progress has been made.
Hate speech and disinformation in South Africa’s elections: big tech make it tough to monitor social media
There’s a growing global movement to ensure that researchers can get access to the huge quantity of data assembled and exploited by digital operators. Momentum is mounting because it’s becoming increasingly evident that data is power. And access to it is the key – for a host of reasons, not least transparency, human rights and electoral integrity. But there’s currently a massive international asymmetry in access to data. In the European Union and the US, some progress has been made.
JOLTS Recap (January)
TL;DR We remain locked in the “Great Stay” pattern: unusually low hiring, unusually low quits, unusually low layoffs.
Big Tech must held accountable for news content: Sanef
Sanef has pleaded for accountability as public hearings on competition in digital media platforms kicked off in Pretoria.
Expect a rise in xenophobia, cybermisogyny and disinformation in the election run-up
ELECTIONS AND SOCIAL MEDIA OP-ED Social media companies — such as WhatsApp owner Meta — need to come to the party in safeguarding the information ecosystem to ensure the integrity of the 2024 elections. It’s not rocket science to foresee that the South African elections will include WhatsApp being used to scapegoat migrants. There will be content on fabricated incidents along with actual incitements to violence. Not only is the likelihood high, so too is the impact.
BLS Jobs Report Recap (January)
TL;DR: The January BLS jobs report was much stronger than expected, with big gains (and upward revisions) to employment. Wage and hours data was probably distorted by bad weather.
Need for Data Access to Tackle AI-powered Disinformation in the Global South
The spread of malicious lies or half-truths to forward a particular agenda is not a new or modern trend. But two recent factors are fueling the problem. First, as is now well established, there is the ability of platforms using artificial intelligence (AI) to recommend and amplify this spread, distributing disinformation at an unprecedented scale. Second, and even more worrying, is the ability of generative AI to create huge volumes of realistic content, such as deep fakes.
JOLTS Recap (October)
I’ll publish 3 pieces this week: a JOLTS recap (this one), a BLS jobs report preview (Wednesday) and a BLS jobs report recap (Friday). TL;DR: The most important metrics in the BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) have been stable since the summer, continuing but not intensifying “The Great Stay” of muted turnover in the labor market. Moreover, layoffs remain extremely low by historical standards.
Why is hiring weaker than quits?
TL;DR: This piece explores an interesting labor market discrepancy: quits and layoffs suggest a stronger US labor market than hires. Two possible explanations are labor hoarding and induced quitting. For the last few years, I’ve been regularly sharing a pair of charts that benchmark hiring and quits to the unemployment rate.
In praise of the unemployment rate
My first “real” post! I’m still experimenting with this format, so feedback is very welcome. - Guy Thanks for reading Guy’s Substack! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.
Don't Get Caught in Recession Panic
About the author: Guy Berger is principal economist at LinkedIn. Most folks who follow U.S. macroeconomic data knew, coming into 2022, that economic growth and labor market gains were likely to slow. Fiscal stimulus was being rolled back; the Fed was expected to raise rates. Yet when it actually happened, we collectively got quite rattled. News stories about recession spiked; on LinkedIn's feed, discussion of recession became 10 times more frequent than a year earlier.
Strengthening Media Viability: A Handbook of Innovative Practices
UNESCO announced, on 17 June, it has commissioned a handbook of innovative media strategies and practices that are strengthening independent news media’s ability to provide news and information to societies at a time when their very existence is under threat.
UNESCO 2021 survey on public access to information successfully launched
Building peace in the minds of men and women The 2021 Survey on Public Access to Information (SDG Indicator 16.10.2) was officially launched last week during the Development Data Group Learning Series “World Development Report 2021: Data for Better Lives”. The online event highlighted the importance of good quality data to be collected, disseminated, and shared to improve policy and its implementation. Are countries pursuing access to information laws and their implementation?
UNESCO launches 2021 survey on public access to information
UNESCO has kicked off a global survey on public access to information, putting into practice its status as the custodian agency in the UN for monitoring the right to access to information. Using Sustainable development indicator 16.10.2, the new survey will track progress on how states are adopting and implementing legally binding guarantees for public access to information.
Covid-19 has shown the importance of media freedom. How can the Commonwealth defend it?
Who wants to know more about Covid-19 vaccinations? All of us. As citizens, we deserve information that has a bearing on our lives—we should know about national plans and progress, about virus variants and the price our governments are paying for jabs. We need to know how our governments are allocating rescue and stimulus packages. Who’s paying, and who’s benefiting? Are we indeed saving jobs and mitigating poverty, as our governments claim?
Experts discuss how Austin created thousands of jobs during the pandemic
Austin has not been immune to the economic impacts of the pandemic, but job growth hasn't slowed down. AUSTIN, Texas — The number of people moving to Austin for things like job opportunities isn't a new headline. But what has surprised some is , even as a worldwide pandemic continued to take its toll on the country's economy.
Confronting disinformation in the electoral process: A call for coordinated action
Building peace in the minds of men and women UNESCO and UNDP organized a digital workshop on 13 November on Elections in times of disinformation during the 15th Annual Meeting of the Internet Governance Forum (IGF).
UNESCO World Trends Report now available in Russian
The World Trends in Freedom of Expression and Media Development series is the UNESCO Communication and Information Sector’s flagship publication, produced in response to a request from UNESCO’s General Conference to monitor and report on developments in these areas. Since 2014, the series has offered a critical analysis of trends in media freedom, pluralism, independence and the safety of journalists.
OPINIONISTA: South Africa’s journey to the right to know
The International Conference of Information Commissioners, set to take place in Midrand on 10-13 March, will bring together officials from all over the world, whose job it is to serve their citizens’ ‘right to know’ and who will share successes and challenges in protecting the right to information in their jurisdictions. South Africa has come a long way from apartheid-era secrecy to a constitutional democracy rooted in transparent government and the right to know.
Standing up for Khashoggi is standing up for safety of journalists globally
26 February, 2019 By Guy Berger Washington Post columnist Jamal Khashoggi wasn’t the only journalist killed in 2018. Worldwide, UNESCO recorded the horrific total of 96 other murders for last year. That is: ninety-six lives that are no more, simply because the people involved were doing journalism. Yet, in this death list, the Khashoggi killing was one of the most brazen. Was it intentionally so, in the sense of sending a clear threat to others – i.e., that speaking out can be fatal?
Over-estimating Technological Solutions and Underestimating the Political Moment?
“Over-estimating Technological Solutions and Underestimating the Political Moment?” by Guy Berger We all, and especially the private sector, should appreciate the uniqueness of the Global Network Initiative (GNI) for its multistakeholder work. In fact, GNI appears increasingly to be a metaphorical oasis in an apparent creeping desertification of unilateral decision making on Internet governance issues. Yet, without broad multistakeholder engagement, the risk of polarization rises.
Remembering Jeanette Minnie: Lines from Friends and Colleagues
Harare, Zimbabwe was the first place where I met Jeanette. It must have been 2010, I guess. She stood out in the discussion, principled, thoughtful and always mindful to steer the discussion back to ensure local ownership and leadership. Many African encounters followed in Johannesburg, Grahamstown, Nairobi, Paris and Stockholm. As someone with a lot of character, she was a good person to meet and share tables with.
#WorldPressFreedomDay: Freedom to do journalism
Everyone needs press freedom to be able to publish their news and views to an audience. Gone are the days when political and religious authorities kept this freedom only for themselves. The right to press freedom was a hard-won right historically – against kings, emperors, colonialists and apartheid’s bullies. It unfolded unevenly over history, in different places. In the beginning, it meant freedom to publish for the people who owned a printing press.
Guy Berger, Ph.D.
Why does unemployment go up during recessions? This question isn’t as stupid as it seems. In lots of other markets prices adjust to keep demand and supply equal; why not in the labor market? Nobody wants a pay cut, but during a recession workers might prefer that to losing their job outright. Yet unemployment nevertheless jumps during recessions; employers choose to fire workers rather than cut their pay. Economists call this the “downward nominal rigidity” of wages.
How The Future Of Jobs Is Changing, And The Skills Needed To Thrive
As technologies advance, it can be easy to worry about future employment opportunities — but right now it’s a job seeker’s hiring market. Unemployment in the U.S. is at its lowest point in 17 years, and hiring in 2017 was up 10.4 percent from 2016, according to the LinkedIn Workforce Report. There’s even optimism about the creation of new kinds of jobs: A recent report from the Institute for the Future forecasted that 85 percent of jobs that will exist in 2030 have yet to be invented.
Commentary: The 3 Fastest-Growing Jobs Right Now, According to LinkedIn
Many have predicted doom and gloom for the jobs market in the face of new disruptive technologies like A.I. and robotics, but there are extremely positive signs to quell fears about jobs disappearing. History shows us that jobs don’t just disappear. They are redefined or replaced with new ones over time, and sometimes not as quickly as you might think.
The plan to make Africa safe for journalism
By Guy Berger, the Director of UNESCO's Division of Freedom of Expression and Media Development. In 2013 and 2014, 178 journalists were killed around the world. Of those, 23 were murdered in sub-Saharan Africa. It doesn't have to be that way. African stakeholders can do more to join the growing momentum of the UN Plan of Action on the Safety of Journalists and the Issue of Impunity, which was endorsed by the UN's Chief Executive Board in 2012.
Jobs are changing. But two skills will always be in demand
Fifty years ago, work in developed countries was full of relative certainties. Aside from the periodic recession, most nations were at or near full employment. Rapid productivity growth was underpinning an improvement in living standards. A university degree was a meal ticket to a high-paying, secure job as a professional. And for workers with a high school diploma, jobs on manufacturing assembly lines offered a pathway to middle-class prosperity and upward mobility.
UNESCO Pits Media Development Against Fake News
Guy Berger is Director, Division of Freedom of Expression and Media Development. PARIS (IDN) - While global controversies around “fake news” continue unabated, UNESCO holds two events at its Paris HQ this week which will give more insight into the issues. First up is an annual meeting on media development, held by the eight UNESCO Member States who serve on the Bureau of the International Programme for the Development of Communication (IPDC).
How To Become An Executive
(Co-authored by Link Gan and Alan Fritzler) If you do a quick search for “How to become an executive,” you’ll be inundated with countless resources that promise to help you climb to the top of the corporate ladder. Most of the advice is based on qualitative data. Millions of executives have mapped out their career paths on their LinkedIn profiles, so we decided to see if we could quantitatively identify their keys to success.
7 Thought-Provoking Recruitment News Stories to Delve Into this Week - 5th September 2016
The UK may be about to see a surge in job applications, as over half (57.1%) of UK workers reveal that they are more likely to consider a new job as summer ends. According to data from CV-Library, figures in September 2015 saw a 13.2% increase in candidates registering their CVs to the site; job applications were up by 7.5% during the same period.
Your Second- And Third-Degree Connections Will Help You Get Your Next Job
We all know the adage, “It’s not what you know, it’s who you know.” I couldn’t agree more since my brother Erran, who has worked at LinkedIn since 2009, told me the company was looking for an economist and introduced me to the hiring manager. But I’ve always wondered if LinkedIn’s data would validate or invalidate the adage.
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