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Articles by GNS Science
floatCSEP: An application to deploy and conduct reproducible prospective earthquake forecasting experiments
Published July 22, 2026 | Version 0.5.0 Iturrieta, Pablo1 Savran, William H.2 Herrmann, Marcus3 Bayona, José A.4 Gerstenberger, Matthew C.5 Graham, Kenny M.5 Maechling, Philip J.6 Marzocchi, Warner3 Mizrahi, Leila7 Schorlemmer, Danijel1 Serafini, Francesco4 Silva, Fabio6 Werner, Maximilian J.4 1. GFZ Helmholtz Centre for Geosciences, Potsdam, Germany 2. University of Nevada, Reno, United States 3. Università degli Studi di Napoli Federico II, Naples, Italy 4.
What's in the new Conservation Amendment Bill?
The government is pushing on with conservation reforms it says will cut red tape and raise money through a proposed international visitor levy. The Conservation Amendment Bill passed its first reading this week. The opposition has warned the changes will open up 60 per cent of conservation land to sale, put more power in the hands of ministers, and reduce independent and public oversight. Richard Capie is the general manager of conservation policy and advocacy at Forest and Bird.
What's in the new Conservation Amendment Bill?
The government is pushing on with conservation reforms it says will cut red tape and raise money through a proposed international visitor levy. The Conservation Amendment Bill passed its first reading this week. The opposition has warned the changes will open up 60 per cent of conservation land to sale, put more power in the hands of ministers, and reduce independent and public oversight. Richard Capie is the general manager of conservation policy and advocacy at Forest and Bird.
floatCSEP: An application to deploy and conduct reproducible, prospective earthquake forecasting experiments
Published February 3, 2026 | Version 0.5.0 Software Open Iturrieta, Pablo1 Savran, William H.2 Herrmann, Marcus3 Bayona, José A.4 Gerstenberger, Matthew C.5 Graham, Kenny M.5 Maechling, Philip J.6 Marzocchi, Warner3 Mizrahi, Leila7 Schorlemmer, Danijel1 Serafini, Francesco4 Silva, Fabio6 Werner, Maximilian J.4 1. GFZ Helmholtz Centre for Geosciences, Potsdam, Germany 2. University of Nevada, Reno, United States 3. Università degli Studi di Napoli Federico II, Naples, Italy 4.
geodynamics/pylith v4.2.1
Published August 22, 2025 | Version v18 Software Open 1. US Geological Survey, USA 2. University at Buffalo, New York, USA 3. GNS Science, New Zealand Changed Update PETSc to 3.23.5 Use the VTU (XML) format for VTK files instead of the legacy ASCII format. Added Improved documentation for `pylith_eqinfo` and illustrate use in `examples/strikdslip-2d`, `examples/crustal-strikeslip-2d`, and `examples/crustal-strikeslip-3d`.
Extending the fossil record of late Oligocene non-biting midges (Chironomidae, Diptera) of New Zealand
Extending the fossil record of late Oligocene non-biting midges (Chironomidae, Diptera) of New Zealand 1Estación Biológica de Doñana, Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas, Sevilla, Spain 2Institute of Materials Physics, Helmholtz-Zentrum Hereon, Geesthacht, Germany 3Department of Geology, University of Otago, Dunedin, New Zealand 4Department of Geobiology, University of Göttingen, Göttingen, Germany 5Department of Animal Evolution & Biodiversity, University of Göttingen, Göttingen,...
Antarctic coastal polynyas in the global climate system - Nature Reviews Earth & Environment
Abstract Coastal polynyas describe regions of persistent open water within the sea-ice pack. In this Review, we outline the critical importance of Antarctic coastal polynyas in the Earth system (including for the atmosphere, sea-ice, ocean and biosphere) and outline their past, present and future changes. Strong offshore winds are the primary force opening coastal polynyas, varying on synoptic timescales to influence polynya existence and size.
Novel algorithms detect precursory scale increase to help forecast big quakes
Many people are aware that large earthquakes are often followed by a sequence of aftershocks as stresses are redistributed in the surrounding area. Many may not be aware that there are also sequences of earthquakes that occur before most large earthquakes. The so-called precursory scale increase (PSI) describes a sudden increase in the rate and size of earthquakes in a precursory area, with a precursor time and magnitude prior to the upcoming large earthquake.
New features in the open-source toolkit for earthquake forecast development and evaluation
An international team of 12 researchers across six institutions have recently made valuable enhancements to pyCSEP; a quintessential open-source software package used to develop and evaluate earthquake forecasting experiments.
Maps of heavy metals in Wellington, New Zealand soils show impacts of urbanization Original
A new study from GNS Science marks a significant step in the assessment of environmental contamination in Aotearoa New Zealand's capital. The Urban Geochemical Atlas of Wellington provides the first baseline of the concentrations of elements in the near-surface soils of the Wellington region, highlighting where human activities have increased levels of heavy metals and other elements.
Slow biological microplastics removal under ocean pollution phase-out trajectories
Microplastics are ubiquitous and increasing in marine environments (Eriksen et al 2023). These plastic fragments, often defined as particles between 0.1 µm and 5 mm in length, have several suspected removal mechanisms which transport them from the surface oceans. One of these is biological aggregation, where microplastics become incorporated into biological aggregates including marine snows and zooplankton faecal pellets (e.g. Galloway et al 2017, Porter et al 2018, Kvale et al 2020a); figure 1.
Study shows it's not too late to save the West Antarctic Ice Sheet
New research has found a "missing piece of the puzzle" of West Antarctic Ice Sheet melt, revealing that the collapse of the ice sheet in the Ross Sea region can be prevented—if we keep to a low-emissions pathway.
West Antarctica’s ice sheet was smaller thousands of years ago - here’s why this matters today
As the climate warms and Antarctica’s glaciers and ice sheets melt, the resulting rise in sea level has the potential to displace hundreds of millions of people[1] around the world by the end of this century. A key uncertainty in how much and how fast the seas will rise lies in whether currently “stable” parts of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet can become “unstable”. One such region is West Antarctica’s Siple Coast, where rivers of ice flow off the continent and drain into the ocean.
Linking the terrestrial environmental record at Mason Spur volcanic complex with the middle Miocene−Pleistocene Ross Sea marine record, Antarctica: A history of subaerial (ice-free) eruptions and glaciovolcanism under variable ice thicknesses
Research into volcanism in southern Victoria Land, Antarctica, within the West Antarctic rift system, has focussed historically on the geochemistry and chronology of its volcanic centers. However, volcanoes in the West Antarctic rift system have also been dramatically influenced by the prevailing eruptive environment. Mason Spur is a middle Miocene to Pleistocene volcanic complex in the Erebus Volcanic Province.
Evidencia de los primeros terremotos de la Tierra
18/03/2024 El conseller de Interior de la Generalitat, Joan Ignasi Elena, preside la constitución de la Comisión de Igualdad del departamento
Misconceptions of the marine biological carbon pump in a changing climate: Thinking outside the “export” box
1 MOTIVATION The storage of carbon in the ocean regulates atmospheric CO2 and thus Earth's climate. This storage is partly determined by the ocean biological carbon “pump” (BCP). Carbon dioxide (CO2) is a greenhouse gas that traps warmth near the Earth's surface. Through air–sea gas exchange, it is in continuous contact with the surface layer of the oceanic carbon reservoir.
Structural change detection applying long-term seismic interferometry by deconvolution method to a modern civil engineering structure (New Zealand)
Article Dans Une Revue Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering Année : 2021 Structural change detection applying long-term seismic interferometry by deconvolution method to a modern civil engineering structure (New Zealand) Origine : Fichiers éditeurs autorisés sur une archive ouverte hal-04322083 , version 1 (28-12-2023) Anna Maria Skłodowska, Caroline Holden, Philippe Guéguen, John Finnegan, Geoff Sidwell.
A 5000 yr record of coastal uplift and subsidence reveals multiple source faults for past earthquakes on the central Hikurangi margin, New Zealand
Prehistoric records of subduction earthquakes are often distinguished by evidence of synchronous widespread coastal deformation, the extent of which negates the plausibility of alternative source faults. At the Hikurangi subduction margin in New Zealand, untangling the record of subduction interface ruptures is complicated.
We can still prevent the collapse of the West Antarctic ice sheet - if we act fast to keep future warming in check
Projecting when and how fast the West Antarctic Ice Sheet will lose mass due to current and future global ocean warming – and the likely impact on sea level rise and coastal communities – is a priority for climate science. We know deep water flowing towards and around Antarctica is warming, and the fringes of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) are increasingly vulnerable to ocean-driven melting.
The climate impact of plastic pollution is negligible - the production of new plastics is the real problem
The dual pressures of climate change and plastic pollution are frequently conflated in the media, in peer-reviewed research and other environmental reporting. This is understandable. Plastics are largely derived from fossil fuels and the burning of fossil fuels is the major driver of human-caused climate change.
The climate impact of plastic pollution is negligible - the production of new plastics is the real problem
The dual pressures of climate change and plastic pollution are frequently conflated in the media, in peer-reviewed research and other environmental reporting. This is understandable. Plastics are largely derived from fossil fuels and the burning of fossil fuels is the major driver of human-caused climate change.
The climate impact of plastic pollution is negligible - the production of new plastics is the real problem
The dual pressures of climate change and plastic pollution are frequently conflated[1] in the media[2], in peer-reviewed research[3] and other environmental reporting[4]. This is understandable. Plastics are largely derived from fossil fuels[5] and the burning of fossil fuels is the major driver of human-caused climate change[6].
Modeling shows fires from volcanic activity could greatly increase area affected by eruption
An international research team, including researchers from GNS Science, has released a study into the potential threat of fires caused by volcanic eruptions. The study investigated how far fires ignited by hot rock projectiles from a volcanic eruption could spread under certain wind conditions. The study used the Auckland volcanic field as a case study to demonstrate the expanse of damage that could be sustained under a range of wind speeds.
New 3D images give never-seen-before views inside New Zealand's largest fault
Aotearoa New Zealand's largest fault, the Hikurangi Subduction Zone (HSZ), is where the Pacific tectonic plate dives west beneath the Australian plate and underneath the east coast of the North Island. In some parts of the subduction zone, GPS instruments are showing the plates slowly move by a few millimeters a year. This behavior is called a "slow slip" and occurs over periods of weeks or months. However, in other parts the plates are stuck, locked together, and building up pressure.
Editorial: Rapid, Reproducible, and Robust Environmental Modeling for Decision Support: Worked Examples and Open-Source Software Tools
Jeremy White1* Michael Fienen2 Catherine Moore3 Anneli Guthke4 1Intera, Inc, United States 2U.S. Geological Survey, United States 3GNS Science, New Zealand 4University of Stuttgart, Germany The final, formatted version of the article will be published soon.
Thermophilic methane oxidation is widespread in Aotearoa-New Zealand geothermal fields
1. Introduction The greenhouse gas methane (CH4) is responsible for a large proportion of global climate change, being 28 times more effective than carbon dioxide (CO2) at absorbing infra-red radiation (Forster et al., 2021). The global methane budget is ~730 Tg yr−1 from both natural and anthropogenic sources; with ~5% of this methane consumed by methanotrophic bacteria before it reaches the atmosphere (Canadell et al., 2021).
The diverse morphology of pockmarks around Aotearoa New Zealand
Introduction Seafloor depressions, including pockmarks, have been identified in hydroacoustic data since at least 1970, when King and MacLean (1970) described small concave, craterlike depressions occurring on the muddy seafloor of the Scotian Shelf off the Atlantic coast of Canada.
Reflections on a career in operational science: some lessons learned
Gill Jolly* GNS Science, Lower Hutt, Wellington, New Zealand In this short essay, I reflect on my career and some of the inspirational scientists that have influenced the way I have chosen to work. I highlight some of my lessons learnt as a woman scientist in an environment that remains largely male-dominated at a senior level.
Frontiers | Glacial-interglacial changes in oceanic conditions and depositional process in the continental rise in response to ice sheet (shelf) variation in Bellingshausen Sea, Antarctica
1 Introduction The stability of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) is strongly influenced by variability of the surrounding ocean (Golledge et al., 2012; Pritchard et al., 2012; De Conto and Pollard, 2016). The spatial and temporal pattern of ice sheet advance/retreat across the continental shelf is largely a function of ocean water mass exchange along the glacial front.
Diving deeper into seep distribution along the Cascadia convergent margin, United States
Jane A. Rudebusch1 Nancy G. Prouty1* James E. Conrad1 Janet T. Watt1 Jared W. Kluesner1 Jenna C. Hill1 Nathaniel C. Miller2 Sally J. Watson3,4 Jess I. T.
Frontiers | Glacial-interglacial changes in oceanic conditions and depositional process in the continental rise in response to ice sheet (shelf) variation in Bellingshausen Sea, Antarctica
Sunghan Kim1*, Young-Suk Bak2, Joseph G. Prebble3, Myung-Il Kang1, Sookwan Kim4, Jinku Park1, Min Kyung Lee1, Jae Il Lee1, Kyu-Cheul Yoo1 and Heung Soo Moon1 1Korea Polar Research Institute, Republic of Korea 2Jeonbuk National University, Republic of Korea 3GNS Science, New Zealand 4Korea Institute of Ocean Science and Technology (KIOST), Republic of Korea The final, formatted version of the article will be published soon.
Reflections on a career in operational science: some lessons learned
Gill Jolly1* 1GNS Science, New Zealand The final, formatted version of the article will be published soon. Receive an email when it is updated In this short essay, I reflect on my career and some of the inspirational scientists that have influenced the way I have chosen to work. And then I highlight some of my lessons learnt as a woman scientist.
Almost 60% of New Zealand's freshwater has concerning levels of nitrate, says study
GNS has been monitoring, analysing and collecting groundwater and surface water nitrate data for many years as part of our National Isotope Monitoring research to understand the sources of nitrates in freshwater. GNS Science senior scientist, Karyne Rogers we wanted to know if some regions had higher nitrates in their freshwater sources than others.
Regionally disparate ecological responses to microplastic slowing of faecal pellets yields coherent carbon cycle response
Karin Kvale1,2*, Claire Hunt3, Aidan James3 and Wolfgang Koeve2 1Environmental Processes and Modelling, GNS Science, Lower Hutt, New Zealand 2Biogeochemical Modelling, GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel, Kiel, Germany 3Centre for Environmental Policy, Faculty of Natural Sciences, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom Microplastic is a ubiquitous marine pollutant whose small dimensions make it biologically available to phytoplankton and zooplankton.
Fatty acids, alkanones and alcohols from a major Lower Triassic low-permeability petroleum reservoir
Jaime Cesar1*, Rachel Robinson1, Sebastian Naeher2, Marina Milovic1 and Omid Haeri-Ardakani1 1Geological Survey of Canada, Canada 2GNS Science, New Zealand The final, formatted version of the article will be published soon. Receive an email when it is updated For the first time, polar organic compounds in extracted bitumen from the Lower Triassic Montney Formation have been analyzed. This stratigraphic unit is one of the most prolific low-permeability reservoirs in Western Canada.
Regionally disparate ecological responses to microplastic slowing of faecal pellets yields coherent carbon cycle response
Karin Kvale1, 2*, Claire Hunt3, Aidan James3 and Wolfgang Koeve2 1GNS Science, New Zealand 2GEOMAR Helmholtz Center for Ocean Research Kiel, Helmholtz Association of German Research Centres (HZ), Germany 3Faculty of Natural Sciences, Imperial College London, United Kingdom Provisionally accepted: The final, formatted version of the article will be published soon. Microplastic is a ubiquitous marine pollutant whose small dimensions make it biologically available to phytoplankton and zooplankton.
Quantifying Uncertainty in the Temporal Disposition of Groundwater Inundation Under Sea Level Rise Projections
Lee Chambers1*, Brioch Hemmings1, Simon Cox1, Catherine Moore1, Matthew Knowling2, Kevin Hayley3, Jens Rekker4, Frédérique M. Mourot5, Phil Glassey1 and Richard Levy1 1GNS Science, New Zealand 2University of Adelaide, Australia 3Groundwater-Solutions, Australia 4Komanawa Solutions LTD, New Zealand 5Wairakei Research Centre, GNS Science, New Zealand Provisionally accepted: The final, formatted version of the article will be published soon.
East Antarctic Ice Sheet variability during the middle Miocene Climate Transition captured in drill cores from the Friis Hills, Transantarctic Mountains
This study describes 16 well-dated, terrestrial glacial sedimentary cycles deposited during astronomically paced climate cycles from the termination of the Miocene Climatic Optimum (MCO) through the middle Miocene Climate Transition (MMCT) (15.1−13.8 Ma) in the Friis Hills, Transantarctic Mountains, Antarctica. Three locations were continuously cored (79% recovery) to a maximum depth of 50.48 m through a succession of interbedded till sheets and fossil-bearing, fluvio-lacustrine sediments.
Revised earthquake hazard model helps Aotearoa New Zealand increase resilience Original
Aotearoa New Zealand's updated National Seismic Hazard Model estimates the likelihood of future earthquake shaking hazard to have increased throughout most of the country, ranging from almost no change to more than doubling in some areas. On average, results have increased by 50% or more, highlighting the need to boost national resilience strategies and readiness.
Iceland Kinematics from InSAR
Metrics Submission History [v1] Tue, 13 Sep 2022 16:25:18 (31.2 MB) TopicsFunders License You are free to: Share — copy and redistribute the material in any medium or format Adapt — remix, transform, and build upon the material This license is acceptable for Free Cultural Works. The licensor cannot revoke these freedoms as long as you follow the license terms.
Frontiers | Causes of permanent vertical deformation at subduction margins: evidence from uplifted late Pleistocene marine terraces of the southern Hikurangi margin, Aotearoa New Zealand
Dee Ninis1*, Andrew Howell2, Timothy Little1 and Nicola Litchfield2 1Victoria University of Wellington, New Zealand 2GNS Science, New Zealand Provisionally accepted: The final, formatted version of the article will be published soon. Studies of the seismic cycle at convergent margins anticipate that coseismic deformation is recovered, yet permanent vertical displacement of the overriding plate is observed at many subduction margins.
Ecoregionalisation of the Southern Ocean Using Radiolarians
Introduction The Southern Ocean (SO) is an important region globally for ocean circulation and climate (Rintoul and Naveira Garabato, 2013). The Antarctic Circumpolar Current, driven by the Southern Hemisphere westerly winds, forms a zonal flow around the SO, separated by fronts (Sokolov and Rintoul, 2009). The zonal circulation of the SO has long been thought to control the planktonic and benthic biological ecosystems (Linse et al., 2006).
DART network proves invaluable in assessing tsunami threat following the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai eruption - 18/01/2022
Aotearoa New Zealand’s network of DART buoys proved vital over the weekend as tsunami experts raced to analyse the tsunami threat to our coastlines following a large, explosive eruption at Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai volcano in Tonga. DART (Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunami) buoys are deep-ocean instruments that monitor changes in sea level. They detect tsunami by measuring changes in water pressure via sea floor sensors.
Remote Infrastructure Technician
Remote Infrastructure Technician In this role, you will provide technical expertise and support for GNS Science’s geohazards monitoring systems by carrying out station installations and upgrades, network repairs and maintenance, and contributing to data communications solutions as well as contributing to the design, installation, and maintenance of scientific field equipment.
What is the Richter Magnitude Scale?
The Richter magnitude scale, also known as the local magnitude (M) scale, assigns a number to quantify the amount of seismic energy released by an earthquake. It is a base-10 logarithmic scale. Richter magnitude Description Earthquake effect < 2.0 Micro Micro earthquakes, not felt. 2.0-2.9 Minor Generally not felt, but recorded. 3.0-3.9 Often felt, but rarely causes damage. 4.0-4.9 Light Noticeable shaking of indoor items, rattling noises. Significant damage unlikely.
Late Paleocene CO2 drawdown, climatic cooling, and terrestrial denudation in the southwest Pacific
Review status: this preprint is currently under review for the journal CP. Christopher J. Hollis1,2, Sebastian Naeher1, Christopher D. Clowes1, Jenny Dahl1, Xun Li1, B. David A. Naafs3, Richard D. Pancost3, Kyle W. R. Taylor3, G. Todd Ventura1,4, and Richard Sykes1 Christopher J. Hollis et al. Christopher J. Hollis1,2, Sebastian Naeher1, Christopher D. Clowes1, Jenny Dahl1, Xun Li1, B. David A. Naafs3, Richard D. Pancost3, Kyle W. R. Taylor3, G.
Sensitivity of Holocene East Antarctic productivity to subdecadal variability set by sea ice - Nature Geoscience
References 1. Arrigo, K. R., van Dijken, G. & Long, M. Coastal Southern Ocean: a strong anthropogenic CO2 sink. Geophys. Res. Lett. 35, L21602 (2008). Article Google Scholar 2. Rintoul, S. R. On the origin and influence of Adélie Land bottom water. Antarct. Res. Ser. 75, 151–171 (1998). Google Scholar 3. Moore, J. K. & Abbott, M. R. Phytoplankton chlorophyll distributions and primary production in the Southern Ocean. J. Geophys. Res. Ocean. 105, 28709–28722 (2000). Article Google Scholar 4. Arrigo, K. R. & van Dijken, G. L.
A statistics-based reconstruction of high-resolution global terrestrial climate for the last 800,000 years - Scientific Data
Abstract Curated global climate data have been generated from climate model outputs for the last 120,000 years, whereas reconstructions going back even further have been lacking due to the high computational cost of climate simulations. Here, we present a statistically-derived global terrestrial climate dataset for every 1,000 years of the last 800,000 years.
Climatic windows for human migration out of Africa in the past 300,000 years - Nature Communications
Abstract Whilst an African origin of modern humans is well established, the timings and routes of their expansions into Eurasia are the subject of heated debate, due to the scarcity of fossils and the lack of suitably old ancient DNA. Here, we use high-resolution palaeoclimate reconstructions to estimate how difficult it would have been for humans in terms of rainfall availability to leave the African continent in the past 300k years.
Is the marine ice cliff hypothesis collapsing?
Summary Marine margins, where ice sheets flow from land into the ocean, become exposed to environmental conditions and internally generated forces markedly different from those governing the flow of ice further inland. Prior research has suggested that if the retreat of such margins formed tall ice cliffs, they may become structurally unstable and collapse, leading to further retreat (1).
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