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Articles by William Silber
Silver’s history points to why it is back in record territory
The writer is author of ‘The Story of Silver: How the White Metal Shaped America and the Modern World’ and more recently ‘The Power of...
Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick in February disbanded the Federal Economic Statistics Advisory Committee, a group that advised the government on producing accurate economic statistics. In an email announcing the decision, Mr. Lutnick explained that the committee’s mission “has been fulfilled.” At the same time, the Commerce Department disbanded another group concerned with the accuracy of economic releases by the government: the Bureau of Economic Analysis Advisory Committee.
Opinion | Don’t Rule Out a Rate Hike
Sorry, the video player failed to load.(Error Code: 101104) This week’s meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee could see at least one member register a dissenting vote.
Sebastian Mallaby on Finance’s Intellectual Adventure Stories
When Genius Failed by Roger Lowenstein In 1998, the hedge fund Long-Term Capital Management collapsed after it lost a complex series of bets that it had made, using borrowed money, on global bond markets. These bets generally worked out fine in calm times, but not if something unexpected happened—as it did that summer, when Russia defaulted on its sovereign debt. L.T.C.M.’s collapse would have been easy for a writer to demonize in a crude way.
Opinion: Why Trump really could push the U.S. to default on its debt
Donald Trump knows a thing or two about defaulting on debt. His businesses have filed for reorganization under Chapter 11 of the U.S. Bankruptcy Code at least four times to overcome excessive indebtedness: first with Trump Taj Mahal in 1991, then Trump Plaza Hotel in 1992, Trump Hotels and Casino Resorts 12 years later, and Trump Entertainment Resorts in 2009. Moreover, Trump openly boasts about this strategy.
Opinion: Why Trump really could push the U.S. to default on its debt
Your browser does not support the audio tag. This feature is powered by text-to-speech technology. Want to see it on more articles? Give your feedback below or email audiofeedback@marketwatch.com. Donald Trump knows a thing or two about defaulting on debt.
Trump and the Risk of a US Debt Default | by William L. Silber - Project Syndicate
NEW YORK – Donald Trump knows a thing or two about defaulting on debt. His businesses have filed for reorganization under Chapter 11 of the US Bankruptcy Code at least four times to overcome excessive indebtedness – first with Trump Taj Mahal in 1991, then Trump Plaza Hotel in 1992, Trump Hotels and Casino Resorts 12 years later, and Trump Entertainment Resorts in 2009. Moreover, Trump openly boasts about this strategy.
Trump and the Risk of a US Debt Default - William L. Silber
Aa Aa Aa - A + NEW YORK – Donald Trump knows a thing or two about defaulting on debt. His businesses have filed for reorganization under Chapter 11 of the US Bankruptcy Code at least four times to overcome excessive indebtedness – first with Trump Taj Mahal in 1991, then Trump Plaza Hotel in 1992, Trump Hotels and Casino Resorts 12 years later, and Trump Entertainment Resorts........ © Project Syndicate visit website
Opinion | Inflation Is Down, but It Wasn’t ‘Transitory’
Inflation has come down without yet causing a recession, leading Nobel Prize-winning economist Joseph Stiglitz to claim victory. “More than two years after economists divided into opposing camps over the nature of the post-pandemic inflation, we now know which side was right,” he wrote recently.
The Fed Thinks Its Job Will Be Done At 2% Inflation. Its Policies Promised Even Lower.
Articles The Fed Thinks Its Job Will Be Done At 2% Inflation. Its Policies Promised Even Lower. With inflation running hot, U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell has promised to “keep at it until the job is done.” Powell and many in the markets believe that will be when inflation returns to 2%. But the Fed’s own policies promise an even lower goal: 1%. Friday, September 1, 2023 0 min read By:
The Fed Thinks Its Job Will Be Done at 2% Inflation. Its Policies Promised Even Lower.
About the authors: Thomas J. Sargent is a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution, a professor of economics at NYU and a 2011 Nobel laureate in economics. William L. Silber is the author of Volcker: The Triumph of Persistence, and most recently, The Power of Nothing to Lose: The Hail Mary Effect in Politics, War, and Business.
The Fed Thinks Its Job Will Be Done at 2% Inflation. Its Policies Promised Even Lower.
About the authors: Thomas J. Sargent is a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution, a professor of economics at NYU and a 2011 Nobel laureate in economics. William L. Silber is the author of Volcker: The Triumph of Persistence, and most recently, The Power of Nothing to Lose: The Hail Mary Effect in Politics, War, and Business.
Opinion | Strong Fed Chairmen Confront Spending
At the news conference following the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting on June 14, a reporter asked Fed Chairman Jerome Powell , “At what point do you talk more firmly with lawmakers about fiscal responsibility?”
Opinion | How SVB ‘Profited’ From Interest-Rate Risk
How did three top officers of Silicon Valley Bank earn a combined $18 million in salary and bonus while sitting on a powder keg? The answer lies in the peculiar accounting treatment of bond investments that encourages reckless risk taking with depositor money—a form of legal subterfuge that still threatens the financial system. SVB held tens of billions of dollars in long-term government bonds.
Opinion | How SVB ‘Profited’ From Interest-Rate Risk
An accounting rule created an incentive for the collapse. By William L. Silber March 16, 2023 6:19 pm ET How did three top officers of Silicon Valley Bank earn a combined $18 million in salary and bonus while sitting on a powder keg? The answer lies in the peculiar accounting treatment of bond investments that encourages reckless risk taking with depositor money—a form of legal subterfuge that still threatens the financial system. SVB held tens of billions of dollars in long-term government bonds.
Opinion | What Jerome Powell Can Learn From Arthur Burns Original
By Thomas J. Sargent and William L. Silber Aug. 28, 2022 12:03 pm ET History, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said last week in Jackson Hole, Wyo., warns against “prematurely loosening” Fed policy. Has he learned something from Arthur Burns? Burns, who led the Fed from 1970 to 1978, tightened credit to fight inflation early in the 1970s, but then failed to follow through. That contributed to the Great Inflation.
The Volcker Way
In This Review In This Review Volcker: The Triumph of Persistence By William L. Silber Sign in and save to read later Print this article Share on Twitter Share on Facebook Get a link Page url Request Reprint Permissions The global economy was not the only casualty of the 2008 financial collapse. The crisis also soiled the reputations of many in the financial industry and of the regulators, political leaders, and media outlets that were supposed to keep them in check.
Opinion | Volcker, Powell and the Price of Amnesia About Monetary Policy
By and June 22, 2022 4:30 pm ET Is the Federal Reserve reviewing the connection between high inflation and the past two years’ U.S. monetary policy? A reporter asked Fed Chairman Jerome Powell that question at a June 15 news conference. After acknowledging that the Fed is doing so “very carefully,” the chairman deflected.
Opinion | Inflation, Deficits and Paul Volcker
By Thomas Sargent and William Silber March 3, 2022 6:03 pm ET Photo: Gary Cameron/Reuters ‘We have been having inflation,” Milton Friedman observed in 1978, “not because evil men at the Fed have been willfully turning the printing press, but because John Q. Public has been demanding inflation and aborting every attempt to stop inflation.
Opinion | The Market Is Too Serene About Inflation
The interest rate on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note hovers around 1.75% while the annual rate of inflation nears 7%, suggesting that investors believe high inflation is temporary. Evidently the market expects the Federal Reserve will soon bring inflation back to within a narrow band centered on 2% a year, despite the surge in federal deficits and the central bank’s monetization of a large fraction of those deficits.
3 Books to Help You Grow As a Leader
By Jenn Lim Author Jenn Lim knows a little something about happiness. She co-founded the workplace culture company Delivering Happiness with Tony Hsieh, the late CEO of Zappos.com. Their goal? To teach businesses how to make their employees happier while also improving their ROI. Since its inception, Delivering Happiness has helped over 400 organizations in 110 countries.
The dangers of when there is 'nothing to lose'
NEW YORK – Presidents, generals, dictators and ordinary people take big risks when they have nothing to lose, similar to a quarterback in American football throwing a so-called Hail Mary pass. But the consequences of such a strategy in politics, war and business are usually more serious than the outcome of a football game. In the Middle East, for example, it has produced continuous conflict because the warring parties feel as though they have nothing to lose.
Los peligros del ‘nada que perder’
(Shutterstock) Presidentes, generales, dictadores y gente de a pie, todos corren grandes riesgos cuando no tienen nada que perder. Es como en el fútbol americano, cuando el «quarterback» lanza un «avemaría» o pase largo hacia la zona de anotación en un intento desesperado de que algún compañero de equipo atrape el balón y anote el tanto. Pero en la política, en la guerra y en los negocios, las consecuencias de esa estrategia suelen ser más graves que el resultado de un partido.
Award-winning economist: How to harness 'the Hail Mary effect' to find success in your career
Nearly a third of American workers under the age of 40 have considered changing careers during the Covid-19 pandemic, according to a July Washington Post-Schar School poll. Making a big career change during a time of such uncertainty can feel risky. "Many of us are fearful of not having enough to survive, and that's especially true in Covid," says Lauren Baptiste, founder and chief empowerment officer at Acheloa Wellness, a career and life coaching firm.
The danger of 'nothing to lose'
A ball of fire is seen on a building during Israeli air strikes in Gaza, May 4, 2019. /Reuters A ball of fire is seen on a building during Israeli air strikes in Gaza, May 4, 2019. /Reuters Editor's note: William L. Silber, a former professor of finance and economics at the Stern School of Business, New York University, is currently a senior adviser at Cornerstone Research.
The Danger of “Nothing to Lose” | by William L. Silber - Project Syndicate
When there are potential benefits and effectively no marginal costs to taking a risk or engaging in a conflict, that is what people will do. Those who would like to avoid unnecessary collateral damage or instability must be mindful not only of the scale of the stakes, but also of how they are distributed. NEW YORK – Presidents, generals, dictators, and ordinary people take big risks when they have nothing to lose, similar to a quarterback in American football throwing a so-called Hail Mary pass.
Five Best: Books on Underdogs
Dewey Defeats Truman By A.J. Baime (2020) 1.Harry Truman, a former haberdasher who became a senator from Missouri, was the vice-presidential candidate on the Democratic ticket in 1944. He would become president when FDR died in 1945.
Interview: Paul Volcker on why U.S. presidents still call on the former Fed chief
Paul Volcker is the Federal Reserve chairman who served under five American presidents, helped end the gold standard under President Nixon and warned early about the mortgage crisis. He is also the man, of course, who inspired the Volcker Rule in the Dodd-Frank financial reform act. Now Volcker is the subject of a new book called “Paul Volcker: The Triumph of Persistence” by financial historian William Silber.
Innovation, competition, and new contract design in futures markets
Citing Literature Number of times cited according to CrossRef: 65 Alex Frino, Gbenga Ibikunle, Vito Mollica and Tom Steffen, The impact of commodity benchmarks on derivatives markets: The case of the dated Brent assessment and Brent futures, Journal of Banking & Finance, 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2017.08.017, 95, (27-43), (2018). Joseph P. Janzen and Michael K. Adjemian, Estimating the Location of World Wheat Price Discovery, American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 99, 5, (1188), (2017). Xiaoli L.
Silver, not gold, is the portfolio insurance to buy now
Fear drives up precious metal prices. Fear of war, defaults, inflation, civil unrest and anything that undermines trust in government. A week after the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy in 2008, gold and silver jumped by 15%. Three years later, during the height of the European government debt crisis, when the obligations of Italy, Ireland, and Greece resembled junk bonds, silver more than quadrupled in value, while gold increased 250%.
America First, Fallout Later | by William L. Silber
When assessing Donald Trump’s place in the US political pantheon, few would put him anywhere near Franklin Delano Roosevelt. Yet by pursuing a narrowly focused domestic agenda with little mind to the international implications, Trump is emulating one of FDR’s most egregious political mistakes. NEW YORK – Like a sunbather bent on improving his tan, US President Donald Trump’s policy of always putting “America first” entails long-term costs that could easily outweigh the short-term benefits.
The Hour Between Dog and Wolf
Shortlisted for the 2012 Financial Times and Goldman Sachs Business Book of the Year Award and the Wellcome Trust Book Prize, this...
Business books of the decade
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The Battle for the Soul of Capitalism
By Iain Martin, James B. Stewart Verified, Ben Horowitz, Amy Wallace, Alan Blinder Verified, Stephen Dubner Verified, James Kynge, Dick Martin Verified, Ruchir Sharma, Brad Stone Verified, Julia Angwin, Andrew Keen, Andrew Ross Sorkin Verified, David Wessel, Daniel Schulman Verified, Thomas Friedman Verified, Nick Davies, Bo Burlingham, Charles Duhigg, John Cassidy Verified, Russell Gold, Bryce Hoffman, Robert Frank Verified, Justin Fox Verified, Kurt Eichenwald Verified, Daniel J. Gross, Bob Lutz, David D. Kirkpatrick Verified, Neil Irwin Verified, Paul F. Roberts Verified, Stephen Green Verified, Ian Fraser, Tim Sullivan, James Robinson Verified, Michael Lewis, Christina Binkley Verified, Bethany McLean Verified, Melody Petersen Verified, Charles Morris, Joe Nocera Verified, ROBERT SHILLER, Walter Isaacson, Carl Cannon Verified, John Browne, Margaret Heffernan, Satyajit Das, Gareth Jones, Mohamed El-Erian, Moisés Naím, Peter Diamandis, William Cohan Verified, Daniel Yergin, Cass Sunstein, Don Tapscott, Jeff Rubin, Hamish McRae Verified, Steven Kotler, Edward Glaeser, Howard W. French, Charles Calomiris, Thomas Piketty Verified, Sendhil Mullainathan, Matt Ridley, Erik Brynjolfsson, Andrew McAfee, Atif Mian, Amir Sufi, Tom Doctoroff, Gary Hamel, Joshua Ferris, Anita Raghavan, Michael Spence, Kenneth Rogoff, Jeffrey Sachs, Roddy Boyd, Steve Coll Verified, Adam Grant Verified, Rita Gunther McGrath, Alan Greenspan, Rosabeth Moss Kanter, Ian Bremmer, Abhijit Banerjee, Esther Duflo, Raghuram Rajan, Liaquat Ahamed, Ed Catmull, Stephen Haber, Diane Coyle, Viktor Mayer-Schönberger, Kenneth Cukier Verified, Sheryl Sandberg, Joe Studwell, Eldar Shafir, Angus Deaton, Ray Fisman, John Coates, William Silber, Michael Sandel, Daron Acemoglu, Luigi Zingales, Guy Lawson, Philip Coggan, Christopher Meyer, Julie Kirby, Barbara Kellerman, Richard Rumelt, Sylvia Nasar, Tom Bower, Michael Mandelbaum, Sebastian Mallaby Verified, Sheena Iyengar, Patrick Dillon, Fred Goodman, Anthony Williams, Walter Kiechel, Adam Haslett, George Akerlof, Nandan Nilekani, Frank Partnoy, Rob Goffee, Jim Collins, Carmen Reinhart, Tristram Stuart, William Bernstein, Byron Ousey, Tim Bouquet, Misha Glenny, Alice Schroeder, Clay Shirky, Richard Thaler, Bill Emmott, Joseph Nye, Philip Delves Broughton, Philippe Legrain, Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Iain Carson, Richard Bookstaber, Antoine van Agtmael, Phil Rosenzweig, Marc Levinson, Charles Fishman, Daniel Nissannoff, Barton Biggs, Charles Handy, Brook Larmer Verified, Barbara Smit, Debora Spar, Constantinos Markides, Paul Geroski, Steven Levitt, John Battelle, Pietra Rivoli, Corinne Maier, Lucian Bebchuk, Jesse Fried, Sumantra Ghoshal, John Bogle, Philip Augar, Yoshi Sheffi, Paul Ormerod, Vijay Vaitheeswaran, Lawrence Lessig, TED FISHMAN
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