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Articles by Justin Callais
Licensing the future: Why the ‘Make AI Work for Americans Act’ misses the mark Original
Senator Mark Kelly’s (D-AZ) “Make AI Work for Americans Act” was introduced recently to much fanfare from representatives of organized labor, activists, and even such prominent economists as Daron Acemoglu and Erik Brynjolfsson. The bill expands unemployment benefits, workforce development programs, and job retraining.
Is JD Vance Right About the Dollar’s World Reserve Status Being a Curse? Nope!
An old clip of JD Vance is making its rounds this week, largely because Phil Magness found this clip where then-Senator Vance argued that the US Dollar being the world’s reserve currency is not good for Americans. He used the “resource curse” argument: something that looks like a blessing, but ends up actually being bad for the economy. It’s worth first stating what this actually means.
Three hundred fifty economists just told the poor to stop waiting for growth. They’re wrong
A recent headline in the Guardian calls for an economic reckoning: “We economists have done the maths: ‘growth’ is a doomed strategy.” More than 350 signatories, including economists Joseph Stiglitz, Thomas Piketty, Kate Raworth, and anthropologist Jason Hickel, have endorsed an over 100-page “Roadmap for Eradicating Poverty Beyond Growth” that provides a path to end extreme poverty — not by growing the economic pie, but through a global redistribution.
The State of Social Mobility in Kentucky Part I: Institutions and Rule of Law
When we think about the American Dream, we think about social mobility. Social mobility is a simple idea: Your life outcomes should largely be unrelated to your parents’ status. If you were born into poverty or another precarious situation, you should have the opportunity to achieve wealth and stability. At the same time, being born to rich parents should not guarantee success. When societal institutions are strong, fair, and transparent, they facilitate upward social mobility.
Guest Column: Yes, seas will rise. But there is room for optimism for New Orleans
A recent study makes dramatic claims about our city and state, but the science does not back them up. The paper published last month in Nature Sustainability made headlines with a dire verdict about our city and state: "In paleo-climate terms, New Orleans is gone." The study claims coastal Louisiana has already crossed a "point of no return," and that some of our state’s largest cities — Baton Rouge, Lafayette and New Orleans — will eventually become waterfront property as the Gulf encircles us.
Guest Column: Yes, seas will rise. But there is room for optimism for New Orleans
A recent study makes dramatic claims about our city and state, but the science does not back them up. The paper published last month in Nature Sustainability made headlines with a dire verdict about our city and state: "In paleo-climate terms, New Orleans is gone." The study claims coastal Louisiana has already crossed a "point of no return," and that some of our state’s largest cities — Baton Rouge, Lafayette and New Orleans — will eventually become waterfront property as the Gulf encircles us.
By any other name
This January, New York City elected Zohran Mamdani—a man who sees himself as a “democratic socialist”—as mayor of one of the world’s great financial centers. Of course, one election doesn’t make a country. But more and more Americans are now suggesting they might see themselves as democratic socialists, too. Might. Gallup’s polling from 2010 to 2025 shows the split. Among Republicans, the numbers have barely moved: Favorable views of capitalism have stayed above 70 percent, socialism mostly below 20.
Do environmental constitutions protect the environment?
Discover more from Public Choice in Latin America Explaining Latin American politics with the economic way of thinking. Already have an account? Sign in Research Insights A new study with evidence from Ecuador's 2008 constitutional reform In 2011, a government road construction project deposited debris into the Vilcabamba River in Ecuador’s southern highlands, raising flood risks for nearby communities.
Principles Over Politics is a Modern Superpower
From Ideas to Innovation Podcast Principles Over Politics is a Modern Superpower 1× 0:00 Current time: 0:00 / Total time: -1:17:22 -1:17:22 Audio playback is not supported on your browser. Please upgrade. Principles Over Politics is a Modern Superpower Vance Ginn and Richard Morrison on where the real innovation is happening — and why it matters. Two expert policy communicators walk into a podcast… One was a rock drummer whose car accident sent him down the road to Milton Friedman.
Building a Better Case for Markets
After my colleague, Clay Routledge, and I published our op-ed in the Chicago Tribune, we got to thinking about why the support for terms like “capitalism” is falling, even when support for free markets is quite high across all Americans. In Profectus Magazine, an online magazine that is a part of Archbridge Institute (our employer), we published a piece (with a very cool graphic that our team always does a good job of doing for these pieces!) building on this idea.
Building a Better Case for Capitalism
Capitalism has lifted billions out of poverty, driven unprecedented innovation, and expanded human freedom on a scale no other economic system has matched. Yet the word itself is losing public support in the very country most associated with it. But understanding what Americans actually believe about economics and where those beliefs come from could lead to more productive conversations about capitalism and ultimately a more compelling and unifying case for it.
The Consequences of Socialism
I have spent a lot of time here talking about what the “new right” is completely wrong about: immigration, trade, etc. However, there’s plenty that leftists have upside down as well. There’s a certain ritual among Western socialists– they travel to socialist beacons and tell us what the country is really like.
Commentary: The economic common ground America isn’t talking about
These days, it can feel like Americans across the political divide cannot agree on much of anything. But there is encouraging news: When it comes to the economic foundations of human progress and flourishing, we are not as divided as we might think. Political polarization has become a defining feature of American life.
COMMENTARY: The economic common ground America isn’t talking about
These days, it can feel like Americans across the political divide cannot agree on much of anything. But there is encouraging news: When it comes to the economic foundations of human progress and flourishing, we are not as divided as we might think. Political polarization has become a defining feature of American life.
The economic common ground America isn’t talking about
These days, it can feel like Americans across the political divide cannot agree on much of anything. Political polarization has become a defining feature of American life. More and more people are avoiding dating or befriending those with opposing political views, and growing numbers describe those on the other side as closed-minded, dishonest, immoral and unintelligent.
The economic common ground America isn’t talking about
These days, it can feel like Americans across the political divide cannot agree on much of anything. But there is encouraging news: When it comes to the economic foundations of human progress and flourishing, we are not as divided as we might think. Political polarization has become a defining feature of American life.
The economic common ground America isn't talking about
These days, it can feel like Americans across the political divide cannot agree on much of anything. But there is encouraging news: When it comes to the economic foundations of human progress and flourishing, we are not as divided as we might think.
Commentary: The economic common ground America isn't talking about
People walk past the Fearless Girl statue outside of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on April 28, 2025, in New York City. (Spencer Platt/Getty Images/TNS) These days, it can feel like Americans across the political divide cannot agree on much of anything. But there is encouraging news: When it comes to the economic foundations of human progress and flourishing, we are not as divided as we might think. Political polarization has become a defining feature of American life.
California Voice: A one-time wealth tax would be a permanent problem for our state
Getting your Trinity Audio player ready... California is considering a one-time 5% percent wealth tax on billionaires in the state, courtesy of the Service Employees International Union. Rep. Ro Khanna, a Democrat who represents Silicon Valley, has been a key supporter of the proposal. Other national figures are endorsing the SEIU’s policy proposal, most notably independent Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont.
Callais: A one-time wealth tax would be a permanent problem for California
Getting your Trinity Audio player ready... California is considering a one-time 5% percent wealth tax on billionaires in the state, courtesy of the Service Employees International Union. Rep. Ro Khanna, a Democrat who represents Silicon Valley, has been a key supporter of the proposal. Other national figures are endorsing the SEIU’s policy proposal, most notably independent Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont.
Why a one-time wealth tax would be a permanent problem for California | Opinion Original
Peter Thiel, co-founder of PayPal, Palantir Technologies, and Founders Fund, gestures as he speaks during the Bitcoin 2022 Conference at Miami Beach Convention Center. Thiel has threatened to leave California if the state passes a billionaire tax proposal. California is considering a one-time 5% percent wealth tax on billionaires in the state, courtesy of the Service Employees International Union (SEIU).
Let’s promote social mobility and not redefine poverty
Much ink has been spilled recently on talks about updating the U.S. poverty line to $140,000. Rising costs for housing and essential services like childcare are used to justify the need to rethink who needs a helping hand from the federal government. Any debate on this topic is missing a crucial point. We don’t need to move the goalposts and expand the pool of U.S. citizens who are dependent on the federal government. Work is critical for citizens to have good mental health and existential agency.
Social mobility is America’s bipartisan project. Let’s reduce barriers to it. Original
Getting your Trinity Audio player ready... In an era of deepening political divides, it is rare to find an issue that transcends party lines. Most policies find rhetoric on either side of the divide showing why their party has the right answer to address a litany of issues facing Americans. Both sides fight over whose ideas are best to restore the American Dream.
Milei's Message for Economists
Soon before the election that made Javier Milei president, 108 economists around the world (including prominent names like Thomas Piketty, Gabriel Zucman, and Jose Ocampo) signed an open letter warning about the dangers of “non-traditional” economic thinking. Even at the time, the letter was cluttered with flawed thinking.
Young People Are Loving Communism. Argentina’s Milei Shows Why They’re Wrong
Young people are loving communism. According to a recent Cato Institute survey, over one-third of individuals under 29 have a favorable view of communism, compared to just seven percent of 55- to 64-year-olds and two percent of people 65 and older. We are seeing this broader trend show up at the ballot box with the Mamdani campaign winning its primary for New York City’s mayor.
GOP Tax Plan Pours SALT in the Deficit Wound
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GOP Tax Plan Pours SALT in the Deficit Wound
As the Senate debates the "One, Big, Beautiful Bill," Americans should brace for a larger federal budget deficit and national debt. Were talkingtrillions of dollars. One notable aspect of the House bill that suggests a major shift from the Tax Cut and Jobs Act is increasing the state and local tax (SALT) deduction cap from $10,000 to $40,000.
GOP Tax Plan Pours SALT in the Deficit Wound
As the Senate debates the “One, Big, Beautiful Bill,” Americans should brace for a larger federal budget deficit and national debt. We’re talking trillions of dollars. One notable aspect of the House bill that suggests a major shift from the Tax Cut and Jobs Act is increasing the state and local tax (SALT) deduction cap from $10,000 to $40,000.
Connections
For anyone who’s never experienced financial repression, it might sound like something from another dimension. In the U.S., Canada, Europe, and the broader democratic world, people may think a lot about finance, and they may think at least occasionally about repression, but the idea of “financial repression” is, still, generally alien.
Incoherence, Grand Plans, and Politicians' Self-Interest
What motivates President Donald Trump’s chaotic, stop-and-go, incoherent tariff moves? On April 9, a few days after his “reciprocal tariffs” had come into force and after worrying cracks appeared in financial markets including the market for Treasurys, he announced a 90-day pause for most “reciprocal tariffs” over 10%. He explained that people were “getting … a little bit afraid.” “I thought that people were jumping a little bit out of line.
Why Classical Liberals Should be Skeptical of DOGE
Charlie Munger once said that “it’s not the bad ideas that do you in, but the good ones.” While some have taken this quote to mean that people get stuck too easily on their good ideas, even if they don’t work. But you can also consider this to mean that poorly implemented “good” ideas can have dangerous consequences for these ideas, perhaps even more so than people never taking your ideas seriously in the first place.
The Ambiguities of Corruption: A Conversation with Justin Callais
When Hurricane Harvey hit Texas in August 2017, it triggered one of the most destructive natural disasters in American history. The storm stalled over Houston for several days, dumping an unprecedented amount of rain, more than a meter in some areas, leading to catastrophic flooding that put about a third of the city underwater. More than 100 people died. Around 30,000 were displaced from their homes. Some had to be rescued by boats and helicopters. Many needed temporary shelter.
Enigmas
When Hurricane Harvey hit Texas in August 2017, it triggered one of the most destructive natural disasters in American history. The storm stalled over Houston for several days, dumping an unprecedented amount of rain, more than a meter in some areas, leading to catastrophic flooding that put about a third of the city underwater. More than 100 people died. Around 30,000 were displaced from their homes. Some had to be rescued by boats and helicopters. Many needed temporary shelter.
OP-ED: A Mountain to Climb: How to Improve Social Mobility in West Virginia
Fundamentally, when one thinks of the American Dream, they are thinking about mobility. At its core, social mobility is the ability to improve one’s life and achieve their own vision of happiness and overall well-being. This could be through “material well-being,” such as higher incomes and more luxury items, but it could also involve other aspects of life that makes one better off—like family well-being and a fulfilling career.
The Economics of Flourishing: On Education and Early Childhood
with Preston Cooper, Katharine Stevens, and Justin Callais, hosted by Gonzalo Schwarz Archbridge Institute CEO Gonzalo Schwarz is joined by three experts, Dr. Katharine Stevens, Dr. Justin Callais, and AEI’s Dr. Preston Cooper, to discuss the importance of education, parent stability, and skills development for human flourishing. From early childhood interventions to the return on investment from colleges and universities, they explore how education relates to social mobility.
De-Coupling is Upon Us
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Should we ALWAYS pursue economic growth?
De-growthers say that we have an unhealthy obsession with economic growth. They often focus on how richer countries do not really need to get richer, and some countries could in fact even decrease their economic standing in order to improve environmental outcomes. There is some disagreement between de-growthers on if poorer countries should pursue economic growth; on the one hand, poorer countries that grow can reduce poverty and improve access to basic needs.
Underperforming reformers: Examining disappointing cases of economic reforms
REFERENCES , , & (2020). The economic consequences of durable left-populist regimes in Latin America. Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 177, 787–817. , , & (2023). The effect of the mahathir regime on the Malaysian economy. Economics of Transition and Institutional Change, 31(1), 97–114. , & (2006). Revolution in orange: The origins of Ukraine's democratic breakthrough: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. , , & (2020).
Wealth Generation: How to Boost Income Mobility in the UK
https://iea.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/IEA-Discussion-Paper-122_Wealth-Generation_web.pdf Summary Many argue that income mobility is declining. This applies to all types of income mobility (relative and absolute; intergenerational and intragenerational). As remedies, those who worry and others who want to improve mobility tend to propose expansions to welfare programmes.
John Bitzan and Justin Callais: The American Dream is alive in North Dakota
The American Dream is alive and well in North Dakota. A recent study by the Archbridge Institute illuminates the state’s remarkable position as the seventh-best state in the nation for social mobility, a testament to our vibrant economy, robust community networks, and its residents' unyielding pursuit of progress. This isn’t about numbers; it’s a narrative of real lives uplifted by the opportunities North Dakota offers.
Guest opinion: Utah tops social mobility rankings: What others can learn, what can be improved
From small business to financial literacy and civic engagement, Utah is a national leader in more ways than one. Add social mobility to the list. According to our recent report, which Gov. Spencer Cox highlighted, Utah’s environment for social mobility — the ability to improve one’s life — is the very best in America.. There is no better place to live the American dream than in Utah, and that is worth celebrating.
Guest opinion: Utah tops social mobility rankings: What others can learn, what can be improved
From small business to financial literacy and civic engagement, Utah is a national leader in more ways than one. Add social mobility to the list. According to our recent report, which Gov. Spencer Cox highlighted, Utah’s environment for social mobility — the ability to improve one’s life — is the very best in America.. There is no better place to live the American dream than in Utah, and that is worth celebrating.
Nowhere to go but up: Why Louisiana ranks last in social mobility
This is indicative of a culture at the seams, where our state’s leaders are failing us and we are allowing that lackluster performance to bleed into our culture and everyday life. When you think of the American Dream, you either directly or indirectly consider social mobility. This is the ability to improve your own life. The idea is that your lot in life is not very dependent on that of your parents, so one can improve their situation no matter their starting point.
What Helps People Climb the Income Ladder? It’s Surprisingly Hard to Say.
With the 2024 election cycle heating up and “Bidenomics” taking center stage, talk of income inequality—always a hot-button electoral issue—is back in the news.
OPINION | Louisiana needs dynamism to fuel an economic comeback
Last year, personal income growth was 0.0%, the lowest in the country. And Louisiana had the third highest net out-migration in the country. Louisiana is in desperate need of a comeback. Current so-called "solutions" to the problem are unlikely to work.
Louisiana needs dynamism to fuel an economic comeback
Last year, personal income growth was 0.0%, the lowest in the country. And Louisiana had the third highest net out-migration in the country. Louisiana is in desperate need of a comeback. Current so-called "solutions" to the problem are unlikely to work.
Op-ed: Louisiana needs dynamism to fuel an economic comeback
Last year, personal income growth was 0.0%, the lowest in the country. And Louisiana had the third highest net out-migration in the country. Louisiana is in desperate need of a comeback. Current so-called "solutions" to the problem are unlikely to work.
Intergenerational Mobility, Social Capital, and Economic Freedom
Click here to open the PDF in a new tab. Many scholars have examined the role of social capital in determining economic and social mobility. However, few have tied the role of market institutions (namely, economic freedom) in determining social mobility. We combine the economic freedom data at the MSA-level with social capital data from Chetty et al. 2022 to estimate their effects on social mobility within the United States.
Green Protectionism While the Earth Is Burning?
If governments really believed that anthropogenic CO2 emissions will seriously harm their citizens or subjects, and if they were really pursuing the general welfare, isn’t it prima facie obvious that reducing these emissions would be their first priority, as opposed to competing priorities based on debunked, prescientific economic theories? Looking at what is happening in practice provides a good introduction to how governments actually work and what they pursue.
Reducing "Tax Expenditures" Can Hurt Economic Growth
In my last TaxBytes column, I laid out the strange economics of so-called “tax expenditures.” I gave as an example the tax deduction for mortgage interest. That provision leads some people to own rather than rent and others to buy a more expensive house than they would have. Those are bad effects. But, I noted, it would be more straightforward for economists and politicians to say that those provisions have bad effects rather than using the convoluted language of tax expenditures. It gets worse.
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